OP here. In case you've found this post via Google (as I did unexpectedly, having found my own post when searching for something different) and are wondering how I'm faring now, rest easy: I transitioned years ago, and now live a much, much happier life now than I did when I wrote this post. I live as a woman, I've become a lot more social and (IMO) a lot less socially awkward, friends and strangers don't even realize I'm trans (or if any do, they aren't showing it and aren't treating me any differently).

I didn't regret my transition even once.

My views on gender identity have become more nuanced since I wrote this post. My 2010 self overcomplicated things when they didn't need to be this complicated. "Feeling X on the inside" may well be an untestable proposition, but quality of life and positive impressions by other people are definitely facts about the real, observable world.

I see now that my fear that my belief was irrational — that nothing could convince me I was wrong about my gender identity — was unfounded. If I had regretted my transition and detransitioned, that would have been the evidence that my initial judgment was wrong. Instead, in hindsight, the hypothesis has stood the test of time, and transition was one of the best, most life-improving decisions I've ever made.

If anyone who once commented on this post is reading this: thank you all for your support and encouragement!

It is correct that we can never find enough evidence to make our certainty of a theory to be exactly 1 (though we can get it very close to 1). If we were absolutely certain in a theory, then no amount of counterevidence, no matter how damning, could ever change our mind.

I wonder: do the names Y'ha-nthlei, Y'not'ha-nthlei, and At'gra'len'ley mean anything? I assume Y'ha and Y'not'ha mean "you have" and "you don't have", but beyond that it just seems random.

Indeed, if the two axes are the coordinates of the two particles, then one blob should be in the lower left and the other in the upper right. Seems Eliezer made a mistake with this diagram.

the median rationalist is still struggling to get a date

First, [citation needed].

Second, if it's true, perhaps one should look at oneself and ask why.

Just because I read the sequences doesn't mean I'm particularly likely to agree with any of them. Some, yes, but not all. Many of the statements you listed are controversial even on LW. If they were unanimously accepted here without further discussion, it would be a worrying sign.

Because Laurie is a person?

That was a joke on my part, but one warning against using overly general umbrella terms. Our copyright and patent laws developed as a result of certain historical circumstances, and it is entirely possible that a hypothetical alien civilization would treat sharing and distribution of ideas entirely differently and not resembling any of our historical precedents.