lukeprog22 May 2012 03:57:32AM1 point [-]

As far as I can tell, there have been few other studies which demonstrate the sophistication effect. One new study on this is West et al. (forthcoming), "Cognitive Sophistication Does Not Attenuate the Bias Blind Spot."

Here is the abstract:

The so-called bias blind spot arises when people report that thinking biases are more prevalent in others than in themselves. Bias turns out to be relatively easy to recognize in the behaviors of others, but often difficult to detect in our own judgments. Most previous research on the bias blind spot has focused on bias in the social domain. In two studies, we found replicable bias blind spots with respect to many of the classic cognitive biases studied in the heuristics and biases literature (e.g., Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). Further, we found that none of these bias blind spots were attenuated by measures of cognitive sophistication such as cognitive ability or thinking dispositions related to bias. If anything, a larger bias blind spot was associated with higher cognitive ability. Additional analyses indicated that being free of the bias blind spot does not help a person avoid the actual classic cognitive biases. We discuss these findings in terms of a generic dual-process theory of cognition.

lukeprog20 May 2012 11:14:51AM9 points [-]

My article forthcoming with Bostrom is too short to resolve the confusions you're discussing.

What we actually said about Nanny AI is that it may be FAI-complete, and that it is thus really full-blown Friendly AI even though when Ben Goertzel talks about it in English it might sound like not-FAI.

Here's an example of why "Friendly AI may be incoherent and impossible." Suppose that the only way to have a superintelligent AI beneficial to humanity is something like CEV, but nobody is ever able to make sense of the idea of combining and extrapolating human values. "Can we extrapolate the coherent convergence of human values?" sounds suspiciously like a Wrong Question. Maybe there's a Right Question somewhere near that space, and we'll be able to find the answer, but right now we are fundamentally philosophically confused about what these English words could usefully mean.

lukeprog19 May 2012 06:21:47PM1 point [-]

Would you mind adding this clarification to your original comment above that was upvoted 22 times? :)

lukeprog19 May 2012 06:03:40PM1 point [-]

No, I don't think the better half of 20th century analytic philosophers would have denied that.

lukeprog19 May 2012 04:57:41AM1 point [-]

Right. It's very useful to clear up conceptual confusions. That's much of what The Sequences can teach people. What's wrong is the claim that attempts to clear up conceptual confusions couldn't conflict with science.

lukeprog18 May 2012 04:38:05PM6 points [-]

the job of philosophy is to clear up our own conceptual confusions; that's not the sort of thing that ever could conflict with science!

I think this is wrong, and one of the major mistakes of 20th century analytic philosophy.

Be careful with thought experiments

4lukeprog18 May 2012 09:54AM

Thagard (2012) contains a nicely compact passage on thought experiments:

Grisdale’s (2010) discussion of modern conceptions of water refutes a highly influential thought experiment that the meaning of water is largely a matter of reference to the world rather than mental representation. Putnam (1975) invited people to consider a planet, Twin Earth, that is a near duplicate of our own. The only difference is that on Twin Earth water is a more complicated substance XYZ rather than H2O. Water on Twin Earth is imagined to be indistinguishable from H2O, so people have the same mental representation of it. Nevertheless, according to Putnam, the meaning of the concept water on Twin Earth is different because it refers to XYZ rather than H2O. Putnam’s famous conclusion is that “meaning just ain’t in the head.”

The apparent conceivability of Twin Earth as identical to Earth except for the different constitution of water depends on ignorance of chemistry. As Grisdale (2010) documents, even a slight change in the chemical constitution of water produces dramatic changes in its effects. If normal hydrogen is replaced by different isotopes, deuterium or tritium, the water molecule markedly changes its chemical properties. Life would be impossible if H2O were replaced by heavy water, D2O or T2O; and compounds made of elements different from hydrogen and oxygen would be even more different in their properties. Hence Putnam’s thought experiment is scientifically incoherent: If water were not H2O, Twin Earth would not be at all like Earth. [See also Universal Fire. --Luke]

This incoherence should serve as a warning to philosophers who try to base theories on thought experiments, a practice I have criticized in relation to concepts of mind (Thagard, 2010a, ch. 2). Some philosophers have thought that the nonmaterial nature of consciousness is shown by their ability to imagine beings (zombies) who are physically just like people but who lack consciousness. It is entirely likely, however, that once the brain mechanisms that produce consciousness are better understood, it will become clear that zombies are as fanciful as Putnam’s XYZ. Just as imagining that water is XYZ is a sign only of ignorance of chemistry, imagining that consciousness is nonbiological may well turn out to reveal ignorance rather than some profound conceptual truth about the nature of mind. Of course, the hypothesis that consciousness is a brain process is not part of most people’s everyday concept of consciousness, but psychological concepts can progress just like ones in physics and chemistry. [See also the Zombies Sequence. --Luke]

lukeprog18 May 2012 09:39:02AM* 0 points [-]
lukeprog18 May 2012 06:52:24AM3 points [-]

I haven't studied these issues, but I will note that Steve Sailor and VDARE.com are considered by many people to be racist bigots. Here, for example, is a VDARE article defending white supremacy:

White supremacy, in the sense of a society in which key decisions are made by white Europeans, is one of the better arrangements History has come up with.

This doesn't mean that Sailor's claims in the article you quoted are false, but it might mean that Sailor is unusually susceptible to motivated cognition in a particular direction when it comes to racial issues.

Also, as a matter of community strategy, I'll note that citing sources like VDARE.com with apparent approval might make people of color feel unwelcome on LessWrong, even if the specific quoted claims are correct — just like citing Roissy might make women feel unwelcome even if you only quote true claims he has made.

lukeprog17 May 2012 10:11:02PM1 point [-]

Note that my name is misspelled and I was misquoted in the article, and I contacted the author about this.

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