Comment author: Larks 01 December 2011 11:17:30AM 36 points [-]

There's not point being annoyed at nature, but a precommitment to revenge is useful.

Comment author: machrider 09 December 2011 12:35:30AM 0 points [-]

This is the subtext implied in the saying, "A Lannister always pays his debts," from A Game of Thrones by George R. R. Margin. It is frequently applied in the context of compensating someone for helping one of the Lannisters, but it also functions as a warning against misdeeds.

Comment author: machrider 29 November 2011 08:26:40AM 13 points [-]

This is a good summary, but a post like this is greatly strengthened by links to external resources to justify or expand upon the claims it makes. If I didn't know anything about the topic, some of the text would be unclear to me, and I would want the ability to click around and learn more. For example:

  • What is the sunk cost fallacy? (Link to wikipedia/LWwiki)
  • There is some recent evidence about rationality as a treatment for depression

Also, I think one of the first reactions a typical person will have is, "Rationality? Of course I'm rational." To start from square one on this topic, you have to explain to people that, surprisingly enough, they aren't. Politely, of course. Then you can start talking about why it's important to work on.

All that said, I think the examples given are great; they're salient problems for most people, and you can make a good case that rationality will improve one's outcomes for those problems.

Comment author: machrider 10 November 2011 04:51:13AM *  4 points [-]

The link to the post is incorrect; it points to the previous rerun, should point here: http://lesswrong.com/lw/li/unbounded_scales_huge_jury_awards_futurism/

Edit: It has been fixed. Thanks. :)

In response to comment by [deleted] on What visionary project would you fund?
Comment author: Mercurial 09 November 2011 04:47:43PM 5 points [-]

I daresay that most reasonably well-funded medical research would become almost entirely obsolete if SENS were to work. It's hard to justify researching more effective heart attack medication when no one gets biologically old enough for heart attacks to be a serious problem anymore.

Comment author: machrider 09 November 2011 10:18:57PM 1 point [-]

Doesn't that depend on heart attacks being a function of age rather than a function of time? Anti-aging doesn't necessarily mean anti-arterial-plaque-buildup. I do agree that entire classes of problems might go away though, which would be amazing.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 05 November 2011 02:02:11AM 1 point [-]

Ah, but now you are neglecting the additional value of having the million dollars now, instead of 5.5 years from now. At 4% interest this neatly cancels out the additional $220k.

Comment author: machrider 05 November 2011 02:05:44AM 0 points [-]

I don't believe so, but maybe someone smarter than me can explain this. The magic 4% of a million = 40k value indeed should factor in, but it shouldn't dominate the expected value to the degree that you're making it.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 05 November 2011 01:13:45AM 1 point [-]

I am reasonably convinced that I did not do so; when I said "roughly 5.5 years to accumulate a million", I was taking compound interest into account.

Comment author: machrider 05 November 2011 01:43:38AM *  0 points [-]

Let's try a different angle:

Then, with 4% interest on my $160k yearly, it would take me about 5.5 years to accumulate that million dollars, or 11000 hours.

So over 5.5 years, you theoretically earned $1,220,000. A million in savings plus $40k living expenses for 5.5 years. Effective hourly wage is $110.90.

At an effective hourly wage of $110 your expected lottery ticket return is 1.0 hours, not 1.1

Comment author: machrider 04 November 2011 11:28:10PM 1 point [-]

I believe you left out the opportunity cost of spending the $100 on a ticket instead of letting it accrue 4% interest. That is, you compared $100 in today's dollars to $100 in 2017 dollars, but it should've been $124 in 2017 dollars.

Guardian article highlights observational biases in Knox investigators

11 machrider 08 October 2011 07:41AM

Amanda Knox: What's in a face?

Some choice quotes:

The eyes are not windows to the soul. They are organs for converting light into electro-magnetic impulses.

"We were able to establish guilt," said Edgardo Giobbi, the lead investigator, "by closely observing the suspect's psychological and behavioural reaction during the interrogation."

There are several good insights throughout the article, many of which will probably seem familiar to readers of Less Wrong. The few that stood out to me:

  1. Fundamental attribution error and the general tendency to create grossly oversimplified mental models of others (while simultaneously overestimating our model's accuracy).
  2. Various observational biases, especially egregious on the part of police and investigators. They were so satisfied with the "evidence" of her facial expressions, which is readily available (under the proverbial streetlight), that they felt this obviated the need for additional investigation. It appears that this led them to seek only evidence that further confirmed Knox's guilt (confirmation bias), rather than considering ways to disprove the hypothesis.
  3. Not sure what to call this other than the (not-too-well-established) Dunning-Kruger Effect: the tendency of nearly everyone involved to overestimate their ability to judge someone's guilt based on expression reading techniques in which they may or may not be skilled.
Comment author: [deleted] 29 September 2011 04:16:53PM 8 points [-]

I'm not quite as active on OKC anymore, but when I was, I'd write to lots and lots (hundreds, over a year) of people (girls) with near-zero expectation of response. My guiding star wasn't friend or romantic partner, but "do I want to know this person?" I've written to at least one dude (in my area) who I thought I'd click with, but he didn't write back. I get along with girls better anyway. My checklist:

  1. Check pics. Am I attracted to this person? I'll still write if the profile is extraordinary and/or I sense that our friendship will be a solid one. Stipulating friendship right out of the gate isn't a problem for me.

  2. Have they answered more than 400 match questions? The match scores should be robust. Are we over 90% match? Over 80% friends? Less than 10% enemy?

  3. Is their "dating persona" something non-alarm-bells-y like The Maid of Honor? Although, I admit a curiosity about girls who get Genghis Khunt or The Battleaxe, if their profiles are otherwise inviting or innocuous.

  4. Check "unacceptable answers" in the match questions sidebar. Are they religious/agnostic? I don't want to get into arguments about solved problems. Are they very politically correct? I don't want to tiptoe. Are there unusual inconsistencies? I don't want to deal with a compartmentalizer.

  5. Now I look at what they've actually written about themselves. Are they articulate? Do they possess knowledge I do not? Are they funny? I don't care too much about preferences like music, books, etc unless there is something tellingly atrocious in there like Korn or James Patterson.

If all of this comes up clean, then I initiate contact with a short, clever message pertaining to some specific part of their profile. If they respond, after a short exchange I try to steer things toward a chat session -- the real test. If our banter is self-generating, then this person is added to my gchat list and away we go! Sometimes people start out as potential romantic partners, but end up as friends because of untenable distances or plain old lack of romantic spark. In summary, I think it's possible to gain a lot from your OKC experience if you don't have binary notions of friendship and love, don't disappoint easily, and are willing to put in the time and effort to succeed.

Comment author: machrider 29 September 2011 10:54:59PM 1 point [-]

Thanks so much for the detailed response.

Comment author: [deleted] 26 September 2011 12:03:38PM 16 points [-]

It should be noted that, by frequenting this website and taking the material seriously, you've probably set terrifyingly high intellectual standards for yourself. For me at least, that can cause no small amount of stress. You should be proud that you're tackling something really hard, but try to remember that "temporary emotional kick[s]" are an entirely rational goal. Live a little.

If you're going to be spending a lot of time online, you might as well join OkCupid. I typically make one real friend (or less) per year, but being on OKC -- and taking it seriously -- netted me seven new, real friends this year alone. Of course, most of them live insanely far away, but that doesn't end up mattering much. It's the feeling of truly connecting with another mind that pays well-being dividends, and this can easily happen over text, audio, or video chat. Yes, it can occasionally be like astronaut food instead of real food, but astronaut food is better than no food at all.

You might also benefit from a pilgrimage. Do you own a bike? It's about to be autumn and prime bike trip weather. Even a long walk or hike (in any environment; wilderness is not essential) will be beneficial.

Comment author: machrider 29 September 2011 06:10:13AM *  3 points [-]

Wow, that OkCupid result is surprising. It has not been my experience. What are you doing that causes people to reach out to you in a friendly (rather than romantic) way on there? (Or are you the one reaching out?)

And I agree with regard to the intellectual standard, especially if you consider your intelligence a defining characteristic. Reading the discussion here (and not having much to contribute) has... recontextualized my own self-image.

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