= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
It isn't really that hard to wriggle this question. Why do I have to choose Science or Bayes, can't I just choose not to have an opinion until I am more capable of making a decision? It would seem suicidal from the perspective of bias to choose a side, especially when the stakes are currently so low. Question wriggled. I don't have to choose between Science and Bayes, I can use them both when they are useful, and simply not hold an opinion in the area where they are in some form of conflict.
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if you have an area where you are great at (better than anyone you know or heard of), put most of your efforts there, regardless of the expected payout or other considerations. Don't wait too long, unused abilities deteriorate with age (yes, speaking from personal experience).
First off, if you are better than anyone you've ever heard of at anything, you need to read more about your field. But as a perhaps more relevant question, how do you do that in a more general field? I've always felt very good at strategy, and have been able to pick up related games very quickly, but don't really care to be a professional chess/go/etc player. How does one,"Put most of their efforts" into something more general?