I think so, but your question forces me to think about it harder. When I thought about it initially, I did come to that conclusion -- for myself, at least.

[I realized that the math I wrote here was wrong. I'm going to try to revise it. In the meantime, another question. Do you think that risk avoidance can be modeled by assigning an additional utility to certainty, and if so, what would that utility depend on?]

Also, thinking about the paradox more, I've realized that my intuition about probabilities relies significantly on my experience playing the board game Settlers of Catan. Are you familiar with it?

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