It seems that almost all of the studied phenomena had outcomes determined by other people's emotional responses (presidential primary, idol competition, stock market performance, movie success). These would be expected to correlate with the subjects' emotional responses, as they are likely similar.

This was noted briefly in the paper, but seemed to be largely ignored in the conclusions.

Although the weather study does support the hypothesis, it is a somewhat unfair example, as there is little to go on other than feelings without access to complicated simulation software.

I do believe the fundamental point has validity, but the paper does not seem to support it to anywhere near the level that is implied.

A concrete example of caveats being ignored, from the conclusion:

"The fact that this phenomenon was observed in eight different studies and with a variety of prediction contexts suggests that this emotional oracle effect is a reliable and generalizable phenomenon."

Here are two complementary methods that work for noticing I am procrastinating.

Method 1: Train yourself to frequently ask "what should I be doing?". If the answer is different from what you are currently doing, it is quite likely you are procrastinating.

Method 2: List activities which you know begin procrastination (browsing back to the same news site you've already visited three times today, looking for games to play, checking the TV schedule, checking which friends are available for chat). You can do this while thinking back to times when you know in retrospect you were procrastinating, even if you weren't aware of it at the time. Just making yourself aware of these activities should cause you to notice when you are performing them, giving a hint that you might be procrastinating.

The key with method 2 is catching the moment you begin procrastinating. Method 1 helps figure out the cause.

Hello Less Wrong.

I've been lurking for a while and just decided to register. I have occasionally wanted to comment, but felt i should have an intuitive understanding of the community and its values before doing so.

I consider myself to have been trained in rationality from a very young age. My father was a philosophy professor, and at many points in my life i have found myself referring back to conversations with him in which he attempted to demostrate how to think correctly. I also consider my mother to be a strong rationalist, and thus consider myself quite fortunate in my upbringing.

I came across this site after reading and enjoying Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky (up to ch. 77). I could say many good things about the work, but please let "thank you for the entertainment" suffice. I await any upcoming installments with mildly pleasant expectation.

I admire the basic premise of this site - that of being less wrong - and wish all others who follow the same path the best in life. I doubt i will become a prolific community member, but hope that i can contribute in some small way.

I have studied Mathematics and Physics to at least a BSc level, and also consider myself a competent programmer with interests in AI and reality modeling. I have many other interests, but prefer to keep them secret until called upon.

Thanks for reading :) Tommy / mesilliac