Wha...? Is that an argument by surface analogy? Does every increase in every value owing to human intervention lead to a catastrophe? How about internet connectivity? Land committed to agriculture? Air respired by humans? Shoes built? Radio waves transmitted?

How do you even measure the reference classes appropriately?

Although I don't have any references handy, I've seen people argue that Kyoto-like changes in our lifestyles are necessary on ethical grounds apart from global warming. More often they'll simply dismiss any sort of technological solution as a "quick fix" or even as the thing that caused the problem in the first place.

There are quite a few people who would like to abdicate control over the physical world.

Apologies for commenting almost a decade after most of the comments here, but this is the exact same reason why "using nonlinear models is harder but more realistic".

The way we were taught math led us to believe that linear models form this space of tractable math, and nonlinear models form this somewhat larger space of mostly intractable math. This is mostly right, but the space of nonlinear models is almost infinitely larger than that of linear models. And that is the reason linear models are mathematically tractable : they form such a small space of possible models. Of course nonlinear models don't have general formulae that always work : they're just defined as what is NOT linear. In other words, linear models are severely restricted in the form they can have. When we define another subset of models suitable to the specific thing being modelled, then we will just as easily be able to come up with a set of explicit symbolic formulae. Then it will be just as "tractable" as linear models, even though it's nonlinear : simply because it has different special properties belonging to its own class of models obeying something just like the law of linearity

The second point is something that really gets me. It seems to me that rather than feeling bad about donating to one charity rather than a more efficient or more "important" other charity, we should feel bad about spending money on frivolities rather than donating to charity. Nonprofit organizations are forced to compete against each other for slender resources in many ways, including donor dollars -- why can't they compete against things that have less moral value instead? It would be awesome if there were more social pressure to donate to charity rather than going to the movies or buying pretty clothes.

Interestingly, however, there is some social stigma against donating "too much". A few years ago, there was a New York gentleman who donated a much larger than "normal" percentage of his money to charity, as well as his kidney, plus some other stuff. (I'm sorry, I really wish I could remember his name, but I am very sure I have these details correct, because I read a lot about it at the time.) People speculated in the press about his mental status and other children mocked his kids at school, although his family was hardly left poor by the experience, and his health was not endangered.

In terms of the point in the OP about the lawyer who should be working overtime rather than volunteering ... I struggle with this so much. I spend most of my time doing activism, and I have friends who spend more time than I do (who do things like take very low-paying part-time jobs in order to finance spending most of their time doing activism), but most of us are sex-positive activists, and sex-positive activism is arguably an extremely "low priority" type of activism. If we are concerned about saving more lives, for example, then we should be dedicating our time to other types of activism, or we should be using our intelligence to get awesome jobs and then spending the money on charity. However, I (for one) have tried dedicating all my time to doing activism that seemed "more important" (HIV in Africa) rather than the activism that is most interesting to me (various types of sexuality stuff in America), and I was both less happy and less effective. I am also very sure that I would be unhappy if I dedicated my considerable IQ to becoming a corporate bitch and then donating lots of money, rather than working directly on the issues I care about.

Additionally, it is undeniable that someone has to work on the issues I care about, or else who would I donate money to even if I had a lot of it?

Moreover, all of this is contingent upon you being found out. In a scenario like this, is that really that likely?

Yes. It is.

Today I did a google search for "debate map", and this was the very first result:

http://debategraph.org/

This... is exactly what we're looking for, isn't it?

Though it still doesn't actually do anything with numbers.

I still haven't gotten around to continuing my own project for a debate tool that actually does calculations involving probabilities, though it has finally risen to the top of my to-do list. I was planning to get back to work on it last weekend, but ended up getting distracted by other things again.