you cannot unknow any of this stuff except by obliterating yourself.
This works too, but I think you meant obliviating :) Other than that, good point. Destroying the dementor present would be a good opening move for several different strategies--anything that requires him to be taken very seriously, really.
Indeed. The Dementor is storywise too conveniently present not to destroy as a way to grab the Wizengamot's attention - Harry having been established as being in the possession of Chekhov's Gun. Certainly not sufficient in itself, as you said. Give it 0.8 as a part of the solution.
(As for potion-making, I doubt the information would be very inflammatory to this audience, but good point from OP about him being able to wonk their economy a bit.)
using the Time-turner to alter Hermione's testimony to something easily falsifiable
I thought you couldn’t change the past with a Time-turner.
Harry didn't pay much attention to the testimony after the beginning, thus the timeline doesn't have to change if he goes back to make sure it contains some new False Memoried tidbits, if he can get someone to do the charm. But I don't think there's been much indication that he can override his Time Turner limitations by himself and there may be little time left to try and get someone to do it for him before Hermione is hauled off.
Edit: Silly me, he could just decide what to make her say later and do a quick check from McGonagall if they were included (thus checking if he will manage to go back to do the deed) and go from there. But it'd be difficult to insert subtle enough bits to make a difference only when lampshaded by Harry afterward (since many others presumably listened to the whole testimony already without noticing). Not impossible though. [Re-edited for semi-clarity...]
Dumbledore is a seasoned politician who may be assumed to know how to take the mood of the Wizengamot. However, he incorrectly predicts that they will not call for Hermione to be sent to Azkaban. Was his model of reality wrong or was he ignorant of a force on the board? I notice certain parallels to Quirrell's predictions about the Slytherin bullies.
I think he just didn't want to believe that.
PredictionBook registry - take one prediction a day to keep the hindsight bias away! - based on the speculation:
Harry's solution will be...
(These are not all mutually exclusive, and I didn't set down and make them all sum to 100%.)
Indeed, I was thinking destroy the Dementor as a show of force and threaten with challenging Draco to a duel to the death (I'm presuming he can do that as a Noble House). For, I don't know, willingly participating in a travesty of justice against a friend of Harry's or whatever. Close enough to a trial by combat, which also is presumably possible in this "justice" system, so yeah, maybe that after the show of force.
I'm still slightly rooting for Draco to intervene, though. Slightly.
Edit: Oh yeah, that torture thing. Even if Draco has been wiped of it and it's thus unprovable (aside from being not sufficient debt to cancel Hermione's supposed debt), the claim would probably be sufficient grounds for such duel.
Okay, I don't really think this is how it'll go down - slightly too Dark Lordish. But the image was amusing, so here goes:
"It just happens that if Hermione doesn't walk, everyone but me will lose the ability to cast Patronus. Don't buy it? Oh, well, I'll just explain it to Hermione and she'll be able to testify under Veritaserum that I can do it."
Or, you know, have Hermione figure it out herself from Harry's note and do the blackmail herself.
Anyway, the blackmail potential for this is rather great, and I'd not be surprised to see it used in a more dire situation with more than Hermione on the line.
How about, follow the money? Who gains?
Hermione, the girl who publicly humiliated Draco and the whole Pureblood cause, now owes a blood debt to Lucius Malfoy. Not only does he gain power over her, but by extension, over Harry, and further extension, to Dumbledore. All for the price of a very safe if monitored supposed attempt on Draco's life, which Draco likely would have volunteered for if given the opportunity.
Lucius has hit the jackpot, even if he didn't plan and orchestrate the whole thing. He can extract almost anything out of Harry in exchange for leniency for Hermione. It seems unlikely that the good Defense Professor would have orchestrated a plan which is entirely dependent for it's success on Lucius failing to take advantage of the situation - unless putting Harry in Lucius's debt was his goal.
Lucius personally has complete control of the outcome, and I'm surprised Harry hasn't considered contacting him yet.
Indeed. Though I went a bit further (more likely than not too far ;) in the reviews:
"Speculation time: Lucius did it. But plot thickens: Draco will intervene on Hermione's behalf, mostly on the basis of their remembered scenario being very implausible, as explained in the chapter. The Harry-Draco bond will strengthen. Just as Lucius intended, not being quite as inflexible as pictured in the discussion, and seeing that Draco will do quite well for himself as Harry's second.
As a side benefit, he'll get the record to show that (according to the false memory) Draco won a straight duel against Hermione. (Almost nobody will think to doubt that part of the memory - Draco might, but will keep it to himself.)"
Mr. Hat presumably can't be Lucius, though (that "only teachers can cast this sort of stuff here without being noticed" thing), so ve'd have to be just under his control, but that should be simple enough.
Good show.
To nitpick just a bit, one can genuinely care about a cause, just care about being a lazy piece of shit even more. (I certainly value being lazy a lot, to some of me's annoyance.) Not that that invalidates people generally caring about the appearances more.
Ha, dunno if my earlier speculation had a part in it, but nice that you ran with the resurrection thing.
Wonder if Irina will mate-bond again for the first time...
Agreed, a fine twist indeed. I wager, in fact, that the poor woman has become Didyme for all intents and purposes, and that the bond will therefore retake. Quite plausible to handwave with Aro's high-fidelity brain dumps.
I, for one, would welcome such a positive plot twist (cough for not-long-ago our sworn enemy) for a change.
More generally, seems to me one could start resurrecting people, or at least vampires, killed by Aro (or previously read by him, though then there'd be some local death).
Of course, the downside is that it requires human sacrifice, though it occurs to me that one should at least try to do so with brain dead or severely damaged subjects (given that they're already quite happy with eating animals, humans of comparable or lesser capacity should not pose major ethical barriers when a full person's life is on the line).
'course, might not work on a less than fully functional human. Perhaps one could get a trickle of volunteers from bored with life humans who aren't attracted to turning. Consider it full organ donation. [Edit: Duh, obviously this should be the euthanasia method of choice for terminal people who don't wish to become vampires but do wish for their suffering to end.]
Wouldn't be surprised though if Elspeth just didn't want to get involved with that kind of thing, even indirectly through Addy. But hey, it's a thought ;)
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How about, Hermione goes to Azkaban, Harry breaks her out? Seems like it would have a better chance of working than the other possibilities, especially if Quirrel helps.
It's a possibility. They might've beefed up security in unknown ways since the last breakout though. Risky business.
More importantly, I don't think Harry's Dark Side is big on patience. Or regular Harry, when it comes to allowing Hermione to be subjected to Dementors...