Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

Comment author: morganism 25 February 2017 08:43:29PM 0 points [-]

Well, someone has set up a hedge fund based on an ice age scenario. Looks like more of a political tool, but wonder if anyone else is betting against the market like that....

http://coolfuturesfundsmanagement.com/

"If you donate, you can join our cause and gain benefits including extracting wealth from the collapse of the subsidy dependent business model of big green, and so on as we put the due diligence spotlight on this useless and uneconomic ‘industry’.

Your donation can give you a number of rewards including the chance to take positive action against the fashionable, mindless, baseless, destruction of our western civilization, economy, jobs and lifestyle by the green blob."

Lots of spelling errors on the "Plan" page, not a good sign on an investment invitation....

One of the linked and cited papers on the site

PREDICTION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY FROM SOLAR BACKGROUND MAGNETIC FIELD VARIATIONS IN CYCLES 21-23

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46/meta

Comment author: morganism 24 February 2017 11:59:53PM 0 points [-]

"Field patterns are characteristic patterns of how disturbances react to changing conditions. Because field patterns exhibit characteristics of both propagating waves and localized particles, field pattern theory may answer some of the questions posed by quantum mechanics, in which objects can be treated as both particles and waves."

"Field patterns may bridge the wave-particle duality. The disturbances are represented as points and discrete lines, Milton says, like a particle. "But it's diffusing according to something that looks like a wave," he says.

Field pattern theory does not yet contain a provision for the pattern to collapse back into a single point, however, but Milton and Mattei think that field patterns may have a connection to the basic building blocks of matter. Fluctuations in space and time at the smallest scales could give rise to field patterns that manifest themselves as electrons and protons, which make up atoms.

"What we see as electrons, protons or quantum mechanical waves are manifestations of the fundamental super microscopic scale of these field patterns, Milton says.

Milton and Mattei have much to learn about field patterns. For example, in some cases field patterns "blow up," expanding exponentially, seemingly out of control. The theoretical model also doesn't yet contain some properties of waves. But this intial paper is a first step."

Full paper

http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/473/2198/20160819

[Link] "Field Patterns" as a new mathmatical construct.

0 morganism 24 February 2017 11:56PM
Comment author: morganism 24 February 2017 10:24:10PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: ArisKatsaris 01 February 2017 08:31:09AM 0 points [-]

Meta Thread

Comment author: morganism 24 February 2017 10:17:15PM 0 points [-]

Google AI tool to combat trolling

https://phys.org/news/2017-02-google-ai-tool-combat-online.html

"Google said it will begin offering media groups an artificial intelligence tool designed to stamp out incendiary comments on their websites.

The programming tool, called Perspective, aims to assist editors trying to moderate discussions by filtering out abusive "troll" comments, which Google says can stymie smart online discussions.

Comment author: morganism 23 February 2017 06:38:33AM 3 points [-]

I like this, bout halfway down in the AMA

"Some would argue that in order for the universe to be simulated, it would have to be computed or, basically, be mathematical. Is there a way to prove this by searching for concrete evidence of computation in nature? If so, how>

[–]davidchalmers

i'd say that to be simulated it would have to be computed, almost by definition. if it's a perfect simulation, it may be impossible to get concrete evidence, since the evidence one gets in a perfect simulation will be the same as in the non-simulated universe that it's a simulation of. if it's an imperfect simuilation there may be all sorts of potential evidence: everything from red pills or finding the source code to subtle evidence of imperfect approximations. zohreh davoudi and colleagues at MIT have a nice paper on certain ways in which approximations can show up empirically, which they use to suggest at least a potential source of evidence that we are living in an approximating simulation. there also are various ways that we could get evidence that the physics of our world is digital, which is an idea that is at least connected to the idea of a simulation (though physics could be digital without being simulated, and could be simulated without being digital).

and the theory that our observations , set the physical constraints of the sim.

Comment author: morganism 23 February 2017 05:32:48AM 0 points [-]

Wow.

That is the most insightful exposition on the failings of management theory i have ever seen, and all without the need to spread it out through novel length.

Thanks.

Comment author: gjm 19 February 2017 07:51:01PM *  2 points [-]

Frontrunning

First link has nothing to do with algorithmic trading. Second link has nothing to do with algorithmic trading. Third link is to a Quora question about whether HFT is basically frontrunning, and the top answer says no, it isn't.

I wasn't questioning the existence of frontrunning. I was questioning your claim that algorithmic trading leads to frontrunning and therefore adding small transaction fees would reduce frontrunning. Nothing in the links you posted in reply seems to me to suggest that there's any validity to that claim.

nanex

Your link describes one flash crash, about seven years ago. So far as I can tell there have been maybe four substantial flash crashes. I am happy to agree that extremely short-duration trading anomalies are likely to be the result of automated trading; what I am unconvinced by (and here I wasn't nearly explicit enough, for which my apologies) is that this is actually a big deal. How much actual damage have flash crashes done, in total? My impression is that the answer is "really rather little".

Incidentally, as you say the SEC blame lack of liquidity for the 2010 flash crash; so here's a hypothesis I would be interested to see you refute: Slowing down trading would simply make flash crashes slower. It is not at all clear to me that that would be an improvement. (Does Hunsader's account of things suggest I'm wrong? I don't think so. He suggests deliberate malice by actual human beings, and IIUC his theory is that the proximate cause of the flash crash was a 30-second delay in some sources of price data. In other words, the crash came about in part because for some traders things were too slow.)

I also think you should have to buy your shorts, not just borrow them.

You said that before and I replied "What exactly is your proposal?". I am still interested.

In response to comment by gjm on Basic Income. org
Comment author: morganism 23 February 2017 04:59:04AM 0 points [-]

No idea, i don't know the market feedbacks well enough to solve this problem. I know that alot of folks see the shorting avenue as a way to give negative feedback on a company, and that the markets monetize on volatility, but it seems that shorting with borrowed options is a suboptimal way to give feedback. Perhaps it comes down to a gambling market, as in the futures trading that many here are interested in. But with the majority of money trading in the Dark Markets, between the big dog Banks, maybe we have lost control of these markets anyway. As it stands now, the EPS vs. valuations, is totally unrealistic anyway. It looks like gambling more than ever, and the casino is controlling the odds.

In response to Basic Income. org
Comment author: morganism 23 February 2017 04:51:46AM *  0 points [-]

Hiring for Basic Income at Ycombinator

" we’re hiring an additional researcher. We’re looking for a Research Manager to oversee operations for the larger-scale study. This person will help shape the final research design and contribute extensively to the analysis and reporting.

https://blog.ycombinator.com/hiring-for-basic-income/

Comment author: lifelonglearner 19 February 2017 10:57:25PM *  1 point [-]

The synergy between warming climate and gas hydrate dissociation feeds a popular perception that global warming could drive catastrophic methane releases from the contemporary gas hydrate reservoir... Many factors—the depth of the gas hydrates in sediments, strong sediment and water column sinks, and the inability of bubbles emitted at the seafloor to deliver methane to the sea-air interface in most cases—mitigate the impact of gas hydrate dissociation on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations though. There is no conclusive proof that hydrate-derived methane is reaching the atmosphere now, but more observational data and improved numerical models will better characterize the climate-hydrate synergy in the future.

The relevant parts from the abstract.

Comment author: morganism 23 February 2017 04:01:41AM 0 points [-]

Well, last year, they found significant gas columns breaking the surface in the Leptev sea, and the Ridiculously Resilent Ridge is still there, going on 4 years now, of a stationary high....

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0760-arctic-methane-gas-emission-significantly-increased-since-2014-major-new-research/

'The area of spread of methane mega-emissions has significantly increased in comparison with the data obtained in the period from 2011 to 2014,' he said. 'These observations may indicate that the rate of degradation of underwater permafrost has increased.'

Dr Semiletov and his team are paying special attention to clarify the role of the submarine permafrost degradation as a factor in emissions of the main greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide and methane - in the atmosphere.

The team are examining how the ice plug that has hitherto prevented the exit of huge reserves of gas hydrates has today 'sprung a leak'. This shows in taliks - unfrozen surface surrounded by permafrost - through which powerful emissions of methane reach the atmosphere.

Scientists are eager to determine the quantity of methane buried in those vast areas of the Siberian Arctic shelf and the impact it can have on the sensitive polar climate system.

Five years ago the professor has claimed: 'We found more than 100 fountains, some more than a kilometre across....These are methane fields on a scale not seen before. The emissions went directly into the atmosphere... Earlier we found torch or fountain-like structures like this.."

there are a bunch of on ship blog posts from the folks on the Leptev expeditions that show a LOT of methane getting to the surface.

View more: Next