Ok, I misread one of gwern's replies. My original intent was to extract money from the fact that gwern gave (from my vantage point) too high a probability of this being a scam.

Under my original version of the terms, if his P(scam) was .1:

• he would expect to get $1000 .1 of the time
• he would expect to lose $100 .9 of the time
• yielding an expected value of $10

Under my original version of the terms, if his P(scam) was .05:

• he would expect to get $1000 .05 of the time
• he would expect to lose $100 .95 of the time
• yielding an expected value of -$45

In the second case, he would of course not want to take that bet. I'd thus like to amend my suggested conditions to have gwern only put $52 at stake against my $1000. For any P(scam) > .05 this is a positive expected value, so I would expect it to have been satisfactory to gwern[19 August 2012 01:53:58AM].

Well I still accept, since now it's a much better deal for me!

Done. $100 from you vs $1000 from me. If you lose, you donate it to her fund. If I lose, I can send you the money or do with it what you wish.

There are a lot of things I'd like to say, but you have put forth a prediction

It's probably a scam

I would like to take up a bet with you on this ending up being a scam. This can be arbitrated by some prominent member of CI, Alcor, or Rudi Hoffman. I would win if an arbiter decides that the person who posted on Reddit was in fact diagnosed with cancer essentially as stated in her Reddit posts, and is in fact gathering money for a her own cryonics arrangements. If none of the proposed arbiters can vouch for the above within one month (through September 18), then you will win the bet.

What odds would you like on this, and what's the maximum amount of money you'd put on the line?

I have donated $1000, and I really do believe that our community can get her fully funded. I understand how CI has to be cautious about these sorts of things, but I've seen enough evidence to be more than convinced.

I understand getting enough sleep, but what for example is your version of "eating right"?

HP:MoR 82

The two of them did not speak for a time, looking at each other; as though all they had to speak could be said only by stares, and not said in any other way.

Wizard People, Dear Readers

He gives up on using his words and tries to communicate with only his eyes. Oh, how they bulge and struggle to convey unthinkable meaning!

Was there any inspiration?

Thanks a lot for the suggestion. We already own the game and really enjoy playing it :)

I'll be attending, since it just so happens I'm in this corner of the world right now :)

The general plan for this month's meetup is to try to get more people unfamiliar with LW and x-rationality (particularly other HMC students) to come. I'm not sure to what extent this will be successful, but if it is, it would be nice to have some introductory talks about how rationality can have good practical benefits and help you achieve your goals.

I'd encourage people who are planning on coming to have some examples from their own lives of how rationality has been particularly useful.