Comment author:iarwain1
18 August 2014 08:42:28PM
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4 points
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I had a conversation as a tangent to the previous open thread that left off with an unanswered question, so I'm reposting the question here.
It seems like the scheme I've been proposing here is not a common one. So how do people usually express the obvious difference between a probability estimate of 50% for a coin flip (unlikely to change with more evidence) vs. a probability estimate of 50% for AI being developed by 2050 (very likely to change with more evidence)?
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I had a conversation as a tangent to the previous open thread that left off with an unanswered question, so I'm reposting the question here.
Your scheme seems to be Jaynes's Ap distribution, discussed on LW here.