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Comment author: pataz1 17 December 2009 01:55:09AM -2 points [-]

I find a number of logical errors in what you've presented.

The first is a difference in the the interpretation of the term 'guilty'. For the mass of the internet, guilty is understood to mean definitively "So-and-so did the action." However, a verdict of guilty is quite a different thing; being related to a human enterprise, a verdict of guilty is necessarily bounded by time, technology, and common agreement, to list a few. For example, we frequently argue the technology part- the LCN DNA test on the knife. The ability to prove "guilty" as "did the action" is limited to our advancement and acceptance of LCN DNA testing. Regarding common agreement, I read somewhere (been trying to find the reference) that under Italian law, someone who assists with a crime is as "guilty" as the person who "did the action". Thus, the commonly agreed upon legal determination of "guilt" is different from an individual weighing whether or not someone did a crime. Within the US, the determination of 'guilt' is "proven beyond a reasonable doubt". Again, not "proven that so-and-so did it", otherwise almost nobody would be convicted of crimes that don't have a video of them doing it.

One of the problems I see is that you've limited your definition of the crime 'scene' as being the immediate area that the events took place. Guede's footprints in blood were found in the kitchen heading towards the front door. Wouldn't then that be part of the crime scene evidence? In fact, wouldn't wherever the victim's blood was found be part of the crime scene evidence? Under our common agreement (legal code), the answer to that is "yes". Therefore, the other things that appear or do not appear should contribute to our rational determination of guilt.

This includes half of a bare footprint found in blood on a bathroom mat. There was no bare footprints found in the room, and none leading between the room and the bathroom. A rational assessment similar to "Knox isn't involved because there is no evidence in the bedroom" would then state that nobody was in bare feet because there are no bare footprints in the bedroom. Ah, but its there on the bathmat in the victim's blood.

So, with the Guede "Lone Wolf" theory, we're now left with a little explaining to do to make our hypothesis fit. What actions would have Guede in the bathroom with his shoes off leaving half a print in blood, but then also have a trail of Guede's shoeprints in blood in the kitchen by the front door? What actions would explain both of that -and- not have any other bare footprints visible anywhere? Occom's razor starts asking you to be put back on the sink and come back again when you have a better theory.

There are two explanations that fit. The first is the bare footprints that might have been in the room are no longer detectable because they were in a liquid subtance that deliberately or accidentally got smeared. Ah, but then there's a second potential person in the room. And the other explanation, is that bleach was used to wipe away the bare footprints in the hallway and bathroom. Ah, but then why would guede do that and not clean his other shoe prints?

There is actually a story that fits most of what you posit and most of the scene, and that's Guedes. His story was that it was Sollecito and Knox, and he wrestled with sollecito when sollecito was coming out of the room. Both Guede and Knox's early stories have knox either in the kitchen or out side. Guede claims he went into the bedroom and tried to stop the bleeding with towels. You can look up the rest of his story. I posit elsewhere that Sollecito and Guede may not have recognized each other.

A hypothesis that acutally requires less explanation then the Guede lone wolf theory is that Knox and Sollecito went to play a prank on the victim-an fake rape attempt. Reportedly Knox wrote a story similar to this ( I don't quite know the details). They were fully clothed (it was november) potentially with a mask of some sort. While executing this act, it got out of hand and the victim got fatally injured. Guede's story has him coming out of the bathroom at the scream, wrestling with Sollectio, then going in to put towels on the victim. After the victim dies, Guede leaves and is seen at a dance club a short time later. Knox and Sollecito, having seen no police come to the apartment, come back and attempt to remove any incriminating evidence. To not leave other shoe prints, they go in bare feet; they reason both their dusted bare prints can be explained since Knox lives there, and anyways with no bare prints in the bedroom they don't fit the scene. They step cautiously around Guede's prints in the hall. They take Knox's lamp into the bedroom to see the room better. After smearing the blood in the bedroom, they accidently track some into the hallway and on the bath mat. Knox didn't recognize Guede; she had run out at the first sign the scene turned south. She only knew it was a black man, so she thought it might be her boss when she gave her story to the station. In addition, Sollecito carried knifes in his back pocket; I think he had two pocket knifes that I know of. Its not a far stretch to think he had a third that he discarded.

When guede gets arrested, he thinks that Knox and Sollecito will pin it on him, so he goes fast-track on the trial. Ultimately he's innocent, but he gets convicted under the laws of the land. Knox and Sollecito, the ones that really did it, get convicted as well, since there is enough in the jury's eyes for them to be complicit. They pin their hopes on the appeal on the few remaining pieces of evidence that they weren't able to completely eradicate in the 12+ hours they had to work things out.

Pat

Comment author: Jack 13 December 2009 04:44:03PM 6 points [-]

The false confession consisted of Knox's semi-hallucinated memory of her boss killing Kercher... who couldn't possible have done it. The police coerced that particular confession because they saw Knox's text message to him. That fact alone is enough to render the interrogation suspect. I don't recall reading that Knox confessed details which could reliably be confirmed independently. But I may have missed that.

Comment author: pataz1 16 December 2009 11:57:31PM -2 points [-]

Here's the counter-argument; Knox was voluntarily in the station when Sollecito was being questioned. They hadn't risen to the official level of 'suspect' yet. They started questioning Knox when Sollecito said Knox wasn't as his place for some of the evening. She started providing a statement against the bar owner; they still had her as a 'witness' instead of a 'suspect.' Even the written statement that was inadmissible against Knox was still initially a statement against the bar owner.

All very rational. :)

Comment author: rmattbill 15 December 2009 07:27:15AM 7 points [-]

You're absolutely correct. Not only that, but the Luminol footprints specifically tested NEGATIVE for the presence of blood. Every single one of them.

Comment author: pataz1 16 December 2009 11:51:19PM -1 points [-]

"If Luminol is used it can destroy important properties of the blood. While it can detect even small amounts of blood, the disadvantage is often that the small amount identified is diluted further by the Luminol solution. For these reasons, Luminol is encouraged to be used as a last resort in crime scene investigations to protect the physical evidence."

Read more at Suite101: Luminol - Chemiluminescent Blood Detector: Forensic Investigators' Essential Tool for Crime Scene Investigation | Suite101.com http://crime-scene-processing.suite101.com/article.cfm/chemiluminescent_luminol#ixzz0Ztn6XLRc

Comment author: Questor 16 December 2009 02:52:39AM 1 point [-]

Why are you willing to selectively discount some DNA evidence while you admit other ?

Because the 2 key pieces of evidence should be discounted because they were not arrived at by using the same type of test and were collected differently. All the other DNA testing was done using standard DNA testing in a lab that was nominally set up to do it but which did not always follow all guidelines and procedures and who did not release all data for defense experts to evaluate.

NO DNA that helped the prosecutions case was found initially on the 2 items... the bra clasp and the knife. Regular testing on the rest of the bra had strong findings for Meredith and Rudy. Amanda's DNA was on the knife handle and the bra clasp did have Meredith's as well.

Now the problem comes... the DNA specialist then attempted doing what amounts to Low Count Number (LCN) DNA test which is still experimental in most places and while now accepted in the UK it requires a very specialized expensive lab that must meet many stringent minimum requirements. The tester in this situation had never done this before, the lab was fundamentally lacking in every way to do this test and come up with verifiable, trustworthy data. And yet they did allege that they found MKs DNA or something like it... on the knife... not blood.... no blood on the knife. The DNA would have been in picogram amounts originally and easily contaminated in that lab or elsewhere by the smallest flecks of skin or dust. And there are the same problems with the bra clasp except that along with RS's alleged DNA there are 5 other peoples... unidentified. There can be little doubt that all the DNA and "all" is a very very tiny amount, much smaller than regular standard DNA can reliable even detect as being there...

Add to that no control tests were done and the "evidence" involving these 2 items evaporates. They are rightly to be judged differently from all the other DNA evidence. This looks like a DNA fishing expedition done after no DNA evidence for RS & AK turned up in MK'S bedroom. check these for details http://www.sciencespheres.com/2009/10/methods-of-polizia-pseudoscientificaa.html http://freeaman.001webs.com/pdfs/LCN_DNA_I.pdf http://freeaman.001webs.com/pdfs/LCN_DNA_II.pdf

Comment author: pataz1 16 December 2009 11:48:20PM 0 points [-]

the LCN dna test was only done on the knife; the bra clasp was a regular DNA test, i believe.

Comment author: Sebastian_Hagen 16 December 2009 02:23:03PM 1 point [-]

Very interesting reports about the LCN analysis performed in this investigation; I hadn't come across those before (FOA doesn't seem to link to them). This diminishes my confidence in those results meaning much of anything significantly. Thanks!

Comment author: pataz1 16 December 2009 11:46:32PM 0 points [-]

The problem for the trial was the Defense's argument against the DNA on the knife was undermined by Sollecito admitting there may be the victim's blood/dna on the knife because of a dinner at his house that never happened. Although it tested negative for blood, at that point, the critique against the LCN DNA on the knife is almost superfluous. Sollecito made up a reason to excuse evidence that the defense was challenging the proof of.

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