player_03
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Most of the research is aware of that limitation. Either they address it directly, or the experiment is designed to work around it, assuming mental state based on actions just as you suggest.
My point here isn't necessarily that you're wrong, but that you can make a stronger point by acknowledging and addressing the existing literature. Explain why you've settled on suicidal behavior as the best available indicator, as opposed to vocalizations and mannerisms.
This is important because, as gbear605 pointed out, most farms restrict animals' ability to attempt suicide. If suicide attempts are your main criterion, that seems likely to skew your results. (The same is true of several other obvious indicators of dissatisfaction, such as escape attempts.)
I'm afraid I don't have time to write out my own views on this topic, but I think it's important to note that several researchers have looked into the question of whether animals experience emotion. I think your post would be a lot stronger if you addressed and/or cited some of this research.
I agree that it can take a long time to prove simple things. But my claim is that one has to be very stupid to think 1+1=3
Or one might be working from different axioms. I don't know what axioms, and I'd look at you funny until you explained, but I can't rule it out. It's possible (though implausible given its length) that Principia Mathematica wasn't thorough enough, that it snuck in a hidden axiom that - if challenged - would reveal an equally-coherent alternate counting system in which 1+1=3.
I brought up Euclid's postulates as an example of a time this actually happened. It seems obvious that "two lines that are parallel to... (read more)
In other words, when I say that "Murder is bad," that is a fact about the world, as true as 2+2=4 or the Pythagorean theorem.
I like this way of putting it.
In Principia Mathematica, Whitehead and Russell spent over 300 pages laying groundwork before they even attempt to prove 1+1=2. Among other things, they needed to define numbers (especially the numbers 1 and 2), equality, and addition.
I do think "1+1=2" is an obvious fact. If someone claimed to be intelligent and also said that 1+1=3, I'd look at them funny and press for clarification. Given all the assumptions about how numbers work I've absorbed over the course of my life, I'd find it... (read more)
Back when you were underestimating Covid, how much did you hear from epidemiologists? Either directly or filtered through media coverage?
I was going to give an answer about how "taking the outside view" should work, but I realized I needed this information first.
I don't think it invalidates the claim that "Without the minimum wage law, lots of people would probably be paid significantly less." (I believe that's one of the claims you were referring to. Let me know if I misinterpreted your post.)
I don't have a whole lot of time to research economies around the world, but I checked out a couple sources with varying perspectives (two struck me as neutral, two as libertarian). One of the libertarian ones made no effort to understand or explain the phenomenon, but all three others agreed that these countries rely on strong unions to keep wages up.
IMO, that means you're both partially right. As you said, some... (read more)
I do want to add - separately - that superrational agents (not sure about EDT) can solve this problem in a roundabout way.
Imagine if some prankster erased the "1" and "2" from the signs in rooms A1 and A2, leaving just "A" in both cases. Now everyone has less information and makes better decisions. And in the real contest, (super)rational agents could achieve the same effect by keeping their eyes closed. Simply say "tails," maximize expected value, and leave the room never knowing which one it was.
None of which should be necessary. (Super)rational agents should win even after looking at the sign. They should be able to eliminate a possibility and still guess "tails." A flaw must exist somewhere in the argument for "heads," and even if I haven't found that flaw, a perfect logician would spot it no problem.
Oh right, I see where you're coming from. When I said "you can't control their vote" I was missing the point, because as far superrational agents are concerned, they do control each other's votes. And in that case, it sure seems like they'll go for the $2, earning less money overall.
It occurs to me that if team 4 didn't exist, but teams 1-3 were still equally likely, then "heads" actually would be the better option. If everyone guesses "heads," two teams are right, and they take home $4. If everyone guesses "tails," team 3 takes home $3 and that's it. On average, this maximizes winnings.
Except this isn't the same situation at all.... (read more)
I'm going to rephrase this using as many integers as possible because humans are better at reasoning about those. I know I personally am.
Instead of randomness, we have four teams that perform this experiment. Teams 1 and 2 represent the first flip landing on heads. Team 3 is tails then heads, and team 4 is tails then tails. No one knows which team they've been assigned to.
Also, instead of earning $1 or $3 for both participants, a correct guess earns that same amount once. They still share finances so this shouldn't affect anyone's reasoning; I just don't want to have to double it.
Team 1 makes 2 guesses. Each "heads" guess earns $1,... (read 436 more words →)
Gary MarcusYann LeCun describes LLMs as "an off-ramp on the road to AGI," and I'm inclined to agree. LLMs themselves aren't likely to "turn AGI." Each generation of LLMs demonstrates the same fundamental flaws, even as they get better at hiding them.But I also completely buy the "FOOM even without superintelligence" angle, as well as the argument that they'll speed up AI research by an unpredictable amount.