Comment author: Matt_Simpson 21 February 2013 06:59:38PM 1 point [-]

However I don't understand how exactly hypothesis tests help to solve the philosophical problems with induction.

I don't think it does, in fact I'm not claiming that in my post. I'm trying to set up hypothesis testing as a way of doing induction without trying to solve the problem of induction.

I don't think hypothesis testing would resolve disagreements among competing paradigms either - well maybe it could, but I'm not talking about that.

(I think you're largely correct about why, in actual fact, hypothesis testing is used. There's also some element of inertia as well)

Comment author: prase 21 February 2013 07:59:12PM *  2 points [-]

a way of doing induction without trying to solve the problem of induction

Well, this is the thing I have problems to understand. The problem of induction is a "problem" due to the existence of incompatible philosophical approaches; there is no "problem of deduction" to solve because everybody agrees how to do that (mostly). Doing induction without solving the problem would be possible if people agreed how to do it and the disagreement was confined to inconsequential philosophical interpretations of the process. Then it would indeed be wise to do the practical stuff and ignore the philosophy.

But this is probably not the case; people seem to disagree about how to do the induction, and there are people (well represented on this site) who have reservations against frequentist hypothesis testing. I am confused.

Comment author: prase 21 February 2013 06:46:12PM *  3 points [-]

My understanding of standardised hypothesis tests was that they serve the purposes of

  1. avoiding calculations dependent on details of the alternative hypothesis
  2. providing objective criteria to decide under uncertainty

There are practical reasons for both purposes. (1) is useful because the alternative hypothesis is usually more complex than the null and can have lots of parameters, thus calculating probabilities under the alternative may become impossible, especially with limited computing power. As for (2), science is a social institution - journal editors need a tool to reject publishing unfounded hypotheses without risk of being accused of having "unfair" priors, or whatever.

However I don't understand how exactly hypothesis tests help to solve the philosophical problems with induction. Perhaps it would be helpful to list several different popular philosophical approaches to induction (not sure what are the major competing paradigms here - perhaps Bayesianism, falsificationism, "induction is impossible"?), present example of problems where the proponents of particular paradigms disagree about the conclusion, and show how a hypothesis test could resolve the disagreement?

Comment author: Bugmaster 21 February 2013 02:51:57AM 8 points [-]

It seems almost self-evident that (barring foreign subjugation) a government will care about the wants of (some of) its citizens and nothing else: no other object of concern is plausible.

This is not at all "self-evident", unless you choose to interpret the sentence completely literally, which would render it nearly meaningless.

For example, the government of North Korea does indeed care about the wants of "some" of its citizens, where the number of such citizens is pretty close to 1.

Comment author: prase 21 February 2013 06:12:52PM 2 points [-]

I think North Korea is no problem for the quoted sentence. I interpret it as saying that the government doesn't care about the wants of non-citizens, rather than asserting that the government cares about a significant number of citizens.

Nevertheless, even assuming this interpretation it is still not self-evident.

Comment author: Lapsed_Lurker 20 February 2013 02:08:21PM 6 points [-]

Isn't that steel-man, rather than strong-man?

Comment author: prase 20 February 2013 07:44:28PM 2 points [-]

The historical Steelman was also a strongman, at least according to Wikipedia.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 19 February 2013 03:07:00AM 1 point [-]

divine quote of gay Turing

I'm not sure I know how to parse this.

Comment author: prase 19 February 2013 11:08:51PM *  0 points [-]

Wedrifid's interpretation is the intended one. I agree that the chosen formulation wasn't particularly clear.

Comment author: [deleted] 18 February 2013 07:29:13PM 13 points [-]

Even God can quote Bayes when it suits him.

Still upvoted for raw cleverness, though.

Comment author: prase 18 February 2013 08:42:29PM 9 points [-]

Bayes was a priest, after all. Now divine quote of gay Turing would be a different feat altogether.

Comment author: James_Miller 15 February 2013 06:51:58PM 1 point [-]

I wonder how this works with dating?

Comment author: prase 15 February 2013 07:49:17PM 1 point [-]

Not sure I want to know that.

In response to comment by [deleted] on LW Women: LW Online
Comment author: [deleted] 15 February 2013 01:27:22PM *  6 points [-]

I think I once saw a comment by someone stating that they had a policy of systematically downvoting all comments containing an emoticon, except exceptionally good ones.

In response to comment by [deleted] on LW Women: LW Online
Comment author: prase 15 February 2013 07:32:44PM 3 points [-]

Hope that wasn't me. My dislike for emoticons has somehow waned during recent years and sometimes I even use them myself when I want to be really sure that my interlocutor doesn't misinterpret me as being serious when I am not, but I am the sort of person that has commenting policies and it's not that improbable that this was one of them.

I still hate "lol" pretty passionately, however.

In response to LW Women: LW Online
Comment author: CronoDAS 15 February 2013 04:47:13AM *  23 points [-]

So, apparently LessWrong feels unfriendly. This is something I've heard several times, so I'll accept it as correct. (I don't get that feeling myself, but I wouldn't expect to notice it anyway.) What are some Internet forums that don't feel unfriendly, and what do they do there that we don't do on LessWrong? Talk about ourselves and our lives - "small talk", in other words?

Comment author: prase 15 February 2013 07:25:24PM 11 points [-]

The discussions on e.g. Flickr often consist solely of comments like "Awesome pic! Great colours, looking forward to your next contribution." or "I like your style, please post more!"... To me, this represents the prototype of internet friendliness - not that I would like it to see it here, not that it couldn't be easily faked, but one just cannot deny that it sounds encouraging. There is even no need to talk about ourselves or to say anyting substantial at all, just signal friendliness the most obvious way, it works.

(It's interesting to note how dramatically Flickr differs from Youtube in the commenter culture.)

Comment author: [deleted] 13 February 2013 09:32:45PM 0 points [-]

Yes, I think that you and I are talking about the same thing.

Attempting to rephrase, In essence, my question is how specific do I have to make my number, function, terminating algorithm, or noncomputable algorithm.

Clearly 99999999 is valid as a number,

And presumably 3^^^^3 as a function,

But is a program "Hyper G" that generates a number using a terminating algorithm involving Graham's number being Knuth up arrowed to Graham's number, having the result stored in a variable, and then having the variable Knuth up arrowed to itself iteratively until the process has repeated Graham's number times valid as a terminating algorithm?

Is "The result of the Busy Beaver Function of a Turing Machine with Hyper G States and Hyper G symbols" valid? You might be able to say that names a large integer, but since it isn't even a computable function anymore. I don't know if Omega would accept that as an answer.

In response to comment by [deleted] on Higher than the most high
Comment author: prase 14 February 2013 06:09:37PM 1 point [-]

If I were Omega (feels good to think about the possibility), I would demand a program written in a specified high-level computer language which prints a string in the form SSSS...S0 (or something equivalent). This would exclude all sophistries from "the number my opponent chose plus one" to "the largest number you, Omega, can calculate [under specific conditions]".

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