Comment author:Morendil
26 October 2012 12:11:53PM
16 points
[-]
Care to at least take a stab at outlining what should be in it? Nate Silver's book has some discussion of prediction markets, including
how prediction markets arise from Bayesian thinking
the efficient market hypothesis in various strengths
limitations of prediction markets (e.g. liquidity issues, manipulations, transaction costs)
markets and irrationality ("irrational exuberance")
What else should such a sequence cover?
Can you point to some examples of those "recent arguments" you've seen?
I've mentioned prediction markets to a few people in the context of learning how to make well calibrated forecasts, and the reaction is generally "ugh, gambling! no way!".
I came here looking for some information on implementing a prediction market at work. I happen to already have Nate's book, so I'll have to check that out. Thanks!
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Care to at least take a stab at outlining what should be in it? Nate Silver's book has some discussion of prediction markets, including
What else should such a sequence cover?
Can you point to some examples of those "recent arguments" you've seen?
I've mentioned prediction markets to a few people in the context of learning how to make well calibrated forecasts, and the reaction is generally "ugh, gambling! no way!".
I came here looking for some information on implementing a prediction market at work. I happen to already have Nate's book, so I'll have to check that out. Thanks!