Comment author: komponisto 29 March 2015 08:43:14PM *  4 points [-]

I think it's worth reading this if you think it's some variety of a clear cut case.

It's not worth reading that, unless you're interested in a case study in deceptive reporting.

The case is extremely clear-cut. The major US media often got minor details wrong (especially details having to do with how the Italian legal system works), but seldom did they get the important evidence wrong. Their "one-sided presentation" was accurate.

By contrast, the linked article completely distorts the evidence. It reads like the stuff you read at pro-guilt hate sites. Example:

Knox’s DNA was found on the handle of the murder weapon

"The murder weapon"? The whole dispute is about whether the knife in question is the murder weapon!

– a knife belonging to Sollecito – and Kercher’s was found on the blade. Whether it’s really Kercher’s DNA is hotly contested by Knox supporters, but contamination was ruled out at the latest appeal.

The statement that "contamination was ruled out at the latest appeal" is the kind of willfully ignorant claim that only a cynical propagandist could possibly make. The fact is that contamination is extremely likely, as the court-appointed experts determined at the appeal in 2011. It's true that the more recent appeals court, unlike its predecessor, decided not to listen to this finding. But they didn't commission their own expert review (on this point); they just sided with the prosecution's arguments. You might as well say that contamination was "ruled out" at the first trial.

I'm not going to bother going through the rest of the article; I suggest that anyone curious about the details have a look at the pro-innocence sites (and the pro-guilt sites, if they want to compare).

Comment author: private_messaging 30 March 2015 04:42:46AM *  -2 points [-]

The major US media often got minor details wrong (especially details having to do with how the Italian legal system works)

Claiming that Guede implicated Sollecito and Knox as a part of a plea bargain and got his sentence cut down for that sounds quite major to me.

Likewise there's a major disagreement with regards to the interrogation where Knox implicated Lumumba (whom the police later cleared, by the way, the same bad police); Knox claims it was after many hours long interrogation and she was literally hit on the head by some policeperson, police says she did this right away and denies brutality.

How the fuck is it a clear cut question that an American girl got hit by Italian police, on basis of her words alone? There's nothing clear about allegations like this.

Comment author: Jiro 28 March 2015 07:54:12PM *  20 points [-]

I'm going to repost something I posted there:

I think that Scott is looking at Phil Robertson’s literal words and ignoring context, implication, and connotation. It is possible to parse what Phil Robertson said as a thought experiment which questions the logical consequences of an atheistic position.

But even though his literal words have the form of such a thought experiment, that’s not what he’s doing. He’s stringing together a set of applause lights meant to tell his audience that he fantasizes about the outgroup getting punished for being the outgroup in a way that is their own fault.

It is a scourge of the Internet that people are too literal. Scott is falling victim to this trend here. The way Phil Robertson phrased that, and the circumstance surrounding it, make it very clear that it is not just a thought experiment even if you can take it apart and say “well, a thought experiment has A, and B, and C, and Phil is also using A, and B, and C and in exactly the right order."

Yes, people can use extreme scenarios when they are legitimately trying to argue a point. No, this is not a case of that. It's not even a case of atheists in the audience getting mindkilled. It's a case of atheists in the audience correctly understanding what he's saying. In the real world outside LW, most hypotheticals of this sort are attacks and not sincere attempts to make a philosophical point.

Comment author: private_messaging 29 March 2015 07:06:04AM 4 points [-]

Precisely. It's also implying that atheists are moral nihilists. Which is BS. Plenty of religious people believe in god who will grant them passage to heaven irrespective of their moral conduct just as long as they repent and accept Jesus; and a plenty of atheists are not moral nihilists.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 29 March 2015 05:51:24AM 0 points [-]

What?

Comment author: private_messaging 29 March 2015 06:51:07AM *  -3 points [-]

What I'm saying is that in the context of having religious extremists do all sorts of raping and murdering (of nonbelievers), advancing a pro-religion argument with this sort of thought experiment is really stupid.

Then there's the usual sentiment that the belief in God keeps people from raping and murdering, and it is just empirically false. You can even believe in God and be a total moral nihilist all the same (accept the Jesus and go to heaven no matter what).

Comment author: private_messaging 29 March 2015 06:46:01AM -5 points [-]

I think it's worth reading this if you think it's some variety of a clear cut case.

Comment author: Jiro 29 March 2015 02:33:36AM 6 points [-]

Isn't this also confounded by the fact that judges and juries like to go easy on women, so that women who do commit murder are less likely to be convicted? It may be that measures of what fraction of women are convicted of murder are not the same as what fraction of women are actually murderers.

Comment author: private_messaging 29 March 2015 06:18:01AM *  1 point [-]

Prosecutors may also be less likely to accuse women. I wonder what is the female rate of being accused of murder - if it is 1/10 just as the murder rate is, then this 1/10 can cancel out in the courtroom.

The prosecutor is already using what ever priors they wish, including racist and sexist priors, when they select the suspects to bring to the court; if the court is to do the same, they'll be double-counting.

Ultimately it's all in the wash once you start accounting for things like her trying to frame Lumumba.

Keep in mind also that there's evidence available to prosecution but unavailable to you. Knox claiming that she got slapped during interrogation, and other claims that those present at the interrogation know for certain to be true or not.

I can see it going either way: if I were the police present at the interrogation and then I see her completely lying about how interrogation went, then the reference class is not cute girls it's psychopaths and not very smart ones either. On the other hand maybe she didn't lie about the interrogation. I can't know but those present at the interrogation would know.

edit: also the thing is that a lot of the physical evidence was not reported on by the US media.

Basically there is a lot of physical evidence that if valid would massively overpower any "cute girl" priors. So the question is not about those priors but about the possible alternative explanations for said evidence and said evidence's validity.

Comment author: private_messaging 29 March 2015 05:35:59AM *  -6 points [-]

Well, a common case of people seeing their family get raped and murdered is occurring right now (ISIS related shit) and the raping is done by religious extremists, so...

In response to 2014 Survey Results
Comment author: private_messaging 27 March 2015 11:05:00PM 0 points [-]

I think it's interesting to note the lack of significant correlation between either IQ or calibration(as a proxy for rationality and/or sanity) and various beliefs such as many worlds. It's a common sentiment here that beliefs are a gauge of intelligence and rationality, but that doesn't seem to be true.

It would be interesting to include a small set of IQ test like questions, to confirm that there is a huge correlation between IQ and correct answers in general.

Comment author: [deleted] 27 March 2015 02:40:59PM 1 point [-]

I consider entities in computationally distinct universes to also be distinct entities, even if the arrangements of their neurons are the same. If I have an infinite (or sufficiently large) set of physical constants such that in those universes human beings could emerge, I will also have enough human beings.

edit: also again, pseudomath, because you could have C(dustspeck, n) = 1-1/(n+1) , your property holds but it is bounded, so if the c(torture, 1)=2 then you'll never exceed it with dust specks.

No. I will always find a larger number which is at least ε greater. I fixed ε before I talked about n,m. So I find numbers m1,m2,... such that C(dustspeck,m_j) > jε.

Besides which, even if I had somehow messed up, you're not here (I hope) to score easy points because my mathematical formalization is flawed when it is perfectly obvious where I want to go.

In response to comment by [deleted] on Torture vs. Dust Specks
Comment author: private_messaging 27 March 2015 06:40:57PM *  0 points [-]

Well, in my view, some details of implementation of a computation are totally indiscernible 'from the inside' and thus make no difference to the subjective experiences, qualia, and the like.

I definitely don't care if there's 1 me, 3^^^3 copies of me, or 3^^^^3, or 3^^^^^^3 , or the actual infinity (as the physics of our universe would suggest), where the copies are what thinks and perceives everything exactly the same over the lifetime. I'm not sure how counting copies as distinct would cope with an infinity of copies anyway. You have a torture of inf persons vs dust specks in inf*3^^^3 persons, then what?

Albeit it would be quite hilarious to see if someone here picks up the idea and starts arguing that because they're 'important', there must be a lot of copies of them in the future, and thus they are rightfully an utility monster.

Comment author: Quill_McGee 27 March 2015 03:09:14AM 0 points [-]

exactly! No knock-on effects. Perhaps you meant to comment on the grandparent(great-grandparent? do I measure from this post or your post?) instead?

Comment author: private_messaging 27 March 2015 12:34:48PM 0 points [-]

yeah, clicked wrong button.

Comment author: Kindly 27 March 2015 12:17:18AM 0 points [-]

For one thing N=1 T=1 trivially satisfies your condition...

Obviously I only meant to consider values of T and N that actually occur in the argument we were both talking about.

Comment author: private_messaging 27 March 2015 12:33:53PM 0 points [-]

Well I'm not sure what's the point then. What you're trying to induct from it.

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