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Comment author: indexador2 04 January 2016 07:59:40PM 2 points [-]

If you also want a datapoint on the time necessary to complete the test, I took 15 minutes. Most of the time when I didn't know the correct answer I simply guessed.

Comment author: raydora 10 January 2016 05:54:34PM *  0 points [-]

16 minutes here. Also guessed frequently.

In response to comment by raydora on Sports
Comment author: adamzerner 28 December 2015 04:49:09PM *  0 points [-]

Interesting points about sports being so meritocratic; I never thought about it that way.

Mandated by work?!

What have your experiences been like with fantasy football? Sorry to be so negative but I've been appalled at the way people approach it. I had an argument with someone once that ended up reducing to the fact that he was valuing a player by how many points they produce (Aaron Rodgers) and I was valuing him less because I was valuing him based on how many points he scores relative to what the alternative would be (I even linked him to the article, which didn't change his mind; it was an ego thing; I'm playing him in the championship now, yay competition!).

I've also been disappointed to see that people heavily reach for players in the draft, effectively saying "I disagree with all of the experts". Maybe they are just trying to have fun and don't actually think it's the best strategy? That isn't my impression, my impression is that it's genuine. Personally, I largely stick to the rankings (experts know more than me), but I do adjust based on the strategy I'm taking, and I do disagree with the experts sometimes. This year, for example, I valued the elite wide receivers very highly compared to the experts (because I liked the receivers and because I didn't like many running backs this year).

I actually never heard the expression of "rooting for a jersey", but I'm very glad to learn of it! Personally, I'm one of the few people I've encountered who doesn't root for a jersey; I root for the teams that I think play the game the right way. In basketball this means I change a lot year to year. In football, I've been a big Steeler fan for a while. Admittedly, I do "root for the jersey" to a nontrivial extent with the Steelers, but at the same time I like the way they approach things and would stop rooting for them it they stopped doing the things I like.

Sorry to hear that you haven't found people to play with whom your skills are matched well with :(

I'd be interested to see a sport (re)designed to encourage drama and fun. Leagues have taken steps to do this, but I think that they are marginal steps as opposed to a fundamental restructuring. Ex. NHL (and soccer too?) made the goals bigger, NBA and NFL penalize hand checking more which benefits the offense and makes for a higher scoring and more fast paced game.

In response to comment by adamzerner on Sports
Comment author: raydora 10 January 2016 05:02:26PM 0 points [-]

We have mandatory 'fun days' where we grill hot dogs and play ultimate football.

Thanks for the link, I'll definitely attempting to implement some of the lessons from it to my draft next year. Incidentally, drafting is where I've always failed- I kind of just picked players without any knowledge or analysis, and then figured out what I could do with them during the season. The waiver wire helped, of course. Mine is an extremely blue collar league, so there's not much in the way of strategy besides 'I follow my gut'.

Comment author: [deleted] 28 December 2015 03:36:02AM *  5 points [-]

I'm interested in talking to people knowledgeable in decision theory/bayesian statistics about a startup that aims to disrupt the $240,000,000,000 management consulting market. it's based on the idea of prediction polls, but done on the blockchain(the same thing bitcoin uses) in a completely decentralized way.

I'm particularly interested in people who can help me out with understanding/choosing alternative scoring rules besides Brier scoring.

I can't pay you for your time, but I can virtually order you a pizza or buy you a beer :).


edit: Here's the (still very rough) elevator pitch:

For a long time companies relied on a pretty fuzzy metric: People who seemed to be better at making good decisions got to make them. This worked out decently well, but led to one undesirable result: People who were good at making excuses about their decisions ALSO got to make decisions.

The thing was, we didn't really have a better way to do it. That is, until the data revolution. Suddenly, companies had access to tons of data that they could use to ACTUALLY make better decisions. The problem was, they weren't politically set up to make use of this data, because all the people in power were those who could make good excuses.

This is were management consulting companies came in. For really big decisions, the management consulting companies would come in as outsiders, charge a bunch of money, and use their clout to use the data to make big decisions (like how many people to fire). This industry rapidly grew to the 240 billion dollar industry it is today.

But there's a huge problem with the industry - there's no objective way to tell which companies are actually good at making decisions. This leads to a case where the only way to tell which companies are good is their name and reputation - which means a monopolistic signalling market where the very few who got in early and made a name for themselves get to overcharge for their name, and new cheaper players find it very hard to enter the market.

The solution: An objective metric(bayesian scoring rule) that shows how good an organization or individual is at predicting the future. The entire history of how the company got this score is available on the blockchain, so you avoid the signaling problem by making everything auditable and therefore not having to put your trust in any one brand or company.

Not only can this allow us to take over all the big problems that management consulting currently handles, but it opens up a whole class of smaller decisions that were simply cost prohibitive in the management consulting model, and creates a new paradigm for management as a result.


Edit 2: If you're effectively altruist minded, it may be of interest to know that the reason I'm interested in doing this is to drastically reduce the cost of impact assessments.

In response to comment by [deleted] on Open Thread, Dec. 28 - Jan. 3, 2016
Comment author: raydora 28 December 2015 01:45:16PM 1 point [-]

I'm deeply interested in this problem.

I've got to ask, though.

Isn't this a niche filled by 'business intelligence' and 'data science'? They call it a lot of different things, sure, but they seem to be operating in the same space- at least, they may seem to, to a non-technical executive. An exception is mid-to-small business - I don't think there's a lot of penetration there.

In response to Sports
Comment author: raydora 28 December 2015 01:37:48PM 1 point [-]

I no longer play sports (unless it's mandated by work), unless you count grappling on occasion.

Yes, I maintain a fantasy football team to practice statistical thinking (as opposed to actual statistics, at the moment) and because I found it ingratiates me with my colleagues. My workplace went from a den of geeks to regular Monday night football types in the space of months, so I switched from D&D to fantasy football.

It's safe to say I don't really have teams I root for (once upon a time it was Newcastle United, because I liked zebras as a kid) or sports I watch more than a few minutes of. Yet I'm interested in sports- now more than ever.

It's in the details. How does a tennis player improve his reaction time? How does handball transfer to boxing? How does the conditioning a football wide receiver employs differ from a midfielder's training in football? What are the steps coaches take to improve performance? When performance is at a peak, what's the best method for getting a group of people with adrenaline driving them to incorporate tactics into their play? Are tactics something you need to pay attention to? Sports provide a simple world with well-defined rules to explore the effect of competition on innovation.

If a team isn't maximizing play within those rules, that team should lose over time. There's a consequence for not paying attention to reality- especially in professional sports. If passing the ball in a particular way is bad form but it works and isn't against the rules, surely teams will eventually start doing it, and the game will have to be re-examined.

You can find a lot of these aspects in multiplayer virtual games, but the physical skills required for sports introduce a whole new element that's extremely interesting. Sure, Counter-Strike might raise your reaction time, but that's just your eyes and your hands. A squash player, now, she'll need to move her whole body.

I see the value in sports. I just don't find it fun to, actually, you know, play, due to skill mismatch. People are either way better or much worse. Unless it's capture the flag, paintball, or some other 'new' sport. The sports I do enjoy are one-on-one, but they carry a high risk of injury or are a heavy time sink.

I do wonder why people haven't come up with a better game- one that maximizes suspense and use of complex tactics.

But which sport has had the most rules changes over time? A cursory glance suggests the NFL, but I suppose I should make a note to crunch those numbers when I'm inclined.

One last thing. I think there might be a better way to structure professional teams to encourage drama. As the saying goes, you're just rooting for a jersey. Perhaps some sort of player buy-in to a team might change that. After all, city leagues, high school games, national, and even college sports make for more compelling stories.

Comment author: Ozyrus 23 December 2015 04:04:20PM *  5 points [-]

Well, this is a stupid questions thread after all, so I might as well ask one that seems really stupid.

How can a person who promotes rationality have excess weight? Been bugging me for a while. Isn't it kinda the first thing you would want to apply your rationality to? If you have things to do that get you more utility, you can always pay diet specialist and just stick to the diet, because it seems to me that additional years to life will bring you more utility than any other activity you could spend that money on.

Comment author: raydora 24 December 2015 04:48:33PM 0 points [-]

Measuring RMR could reveal snowflake likelihood.

If ego depletion turns out to be real, choosing not to limit yourself in order to focus on something you find important might be a choice you make. Different people really do carry their fat differently, too, so there's that. Not everyone who runs marathons is slender, especially as they age.

And then there's injuries, but that brings up another subject.

I'm not sure how expensive whole body air displacement is in the civilian world, but it seems like a decent way to measure lean mass.

Comment author: CronoDAS 16 November 2015 08:25:48PM *  1 point [-]

My girlfriend's cat poops on the carpet. The cat does poop in the litter boxes some of the time, and always urinates in them, but she also poops on the carpet several times a day in different places. (She also never buries her poop when she does use the boxes.) Any advice?

Comment author: raydora 18 November 2015 11:57:57AM 2 points [-]

Have you talked to her about it? What does she say?

Comment author: Gleb_Tsipursky 07 November 2015 01:59:03AM 0 points [-]

Christian, I did something like that with the designs we have, namely hire someone to design them. Would be good to get some clearer ideas on what would be a preferable style. Can you find a few shirt styles you like, and link to them?

Comment author: raydora 15 November 2015 04:55:50PM 1 point [-]

I'm a little surprised you hired someone for those designs. May I ask how much you paid? Quite honestly, you could've gotten the same design from a middle school student taking a graphic design class. This is fine if you're doing it yourself, but if you're paying for it, well, I think I could do better for free, and I've got absolutely no qualifications in the field.

I know what kind of designs appeal to a subset of society, but I guess we'd have to figure out who your target audience for those t-shirts are. It might not be anyone here, or anyone with the privilege of appreciating art, though the fact that you're publishing in sites like LifeHacker suggests otherwise.

It's the old argument with car dealership and personal injury/family/divorce law ads. Yes, they're not pleasing to you and me, but they may work for their intended audience.

However, I think there's something to be said for aesthetically pleasing designs, especially those that are universal enough to carry across a large number of cultures.

You can take a look at the general designer zeitgeist at portfolio websites like Behance and Dribble.

In addition to Fiverr, there's also 99designs and others. Plenty of t-shirt websites now use the contest format, as well, and you can look at submissions to see the kinds of designs that are given a chance.

Comment author: [deleted] 11 November 2015 09:10:49AM *  0 points [-]

I'm in my 20's and 'have fun' a few of times a year..(no steady partners)

In response to comment by [deleted] on Open thread, Nov. 09 - Nov. 15, 2015
Comment author: raydora 13 November 2015 10:58:35PM 0 points [-]

I'm talking about pleasure in general. Not just sexual.

Comment author: [deleted] 09 November 2015 12:20:51PM *  0 points [-]

Prepare yourself.

This may shock some of you, even by my standards.

Suspend your judgement for a moment to objectively consider the prospect of chemical castration.

There are health benefits, and growing numbers of voluntary eunuchs who don't do it because of prostate cancer or coercion.

I, for one, have felt compelled to chemically castrate for many years. I do not know if the feeling that my sexual urges are more trouble than they are worth is idiosyncratic or more widely shared, but too taboo to act upon. So, I'm opening up the question to the thread!

I have some reservations based on implementation. So, even if I do decide it would be a desirable course of action, the execution may be delayed until the evidence of safety becomes clearer or new techniques emerge.

My concerns specifically are:

  • The ambiguous evidence on the reversibility of bone mineral density losses due to long term use of chemical castrates.
  • De-masculanisation resulting in lower attractiveness (physical or behaviour) and therefore less social, political and career clout, esteem.

I would appreciate any evidence anyone can dig up on bone mineral density loss and chemical castrates, relating to long term use and reversibility. I'm struggling to find what I need. And, in the spirit of improving my research skills - if you can give me suggestions for how to do it myself (keywords for google scholar, for instance) that would be good as an alternative! It seems to be a very long and specific question so it's hard to get clarity!

I'll probably trial depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (antiandrogen associated with bone mineral loss for long term use) and trial Benperidol (antipsychotic that reduces sexual urges) instead of Androcur, since the latter has well known depression and withdrawal side effects. There seems to be a huge vacuum on internet information and research on the antipsychotic. But, it may be easier for me to get access too since I have other, ambiguously psychotic symptoms. Any info on that antipsychotic truly appreciated. Given that it's the most potent neuroleptic (tranquiliser), and I've been on other antipsychotics which were overwhelmingly neuroleptic (and thus I discontinued them), I most likely won't give it a try, actually.

edit: I'm considering this now in light of reflection on other libido reducing substances (antidepressants) that didn't feel very good. Sexual desirelessness felt and probably will feel undesirable in light of this, contrary to my earlier thoughts

In response to comment by [deleted] on Open thread, Nov. 09 - Nov. 15, 2015
Comment author: raydora 09 November 2015 08:38:02PM *  1 point [-]

I'm not sure the potential risk of side effects of the drugs in question are worth such a change. I don't know how old you are, but your libido might also diminish over time.

I used to have similar thoughts as a teenager, so I understand the sentiment, but like everything else at that age, those concerns seem minute in hindsight.

How much fun do you have? Increasing hedons might yield a more efficient balance.

Comment author: Dorikka 20 October 2015 02:49:15AM 2 points [-]

Any particular evidence in favor of this approach, anecdotal or otherwise?

Comment author: raydora 08 November 2015 03:29:06AM 1 point [-]

Late reply, I know!

Standardizing decisions through checklists and decision trees has, in general, shown to be useful if the principles behind those algorithms are based on a reliable map. In medical practice, that's probably the evidence-based medicine approach to screening, diagnosis, and treatment.

In addition, all this assumes that patient management skills are not a concern, since it's not something I personally consider important (from the point of view of a patient) when considering a provider of any medical or technical service. If you typically require more from your physician (and many people do see physicians as societal pillars and someone to talk to their non-medical problems about) than medical evaluation and treatment, then it is something to keep in mind.

Anecdotally, every medical provider I've encountered who was a vocal opponent of clinical decision support systems had a tendency to jump to dramatic conclusions that were later proven wrong.

This is one of the few studies on the subject that isn't behind a paywall.

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