Good forum for investing?

-2 roland 19 March 2015 05:16PM

Hello I'm looking for the LW on investing advice. Any suggestions? Thanks.

 

EDIT:

Several commenters gave the standard advice of "buy index funds". If you bought into the Nikkei between 87 and 94 you would have made a loss or very little gains until now(30 years later). So I would appreciate some more in depth discussion regarding when is it good to invest into index funds? If you search in reddit/r/investing you will find more nuanced point of views.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EN225+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%22max%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D

In general index funds will reflect the underlying economy, in the case of the US it was a growing economy for the most part of the 20th century, so the index fund would be good advice in that time period. I have a hard time believing that it is still good advice now, when the economy is retracting or stagnating.

TLDR: reddit/r/investing has more nuanced discussions.

 

Comment author: roland 12 March 2015 08:40:34AM 4 points [-]

Tried Ayahuasca. It works.

Cryonics in Europe?

16 roland 10 October 2014 02:58PM

What are the best options for cryonics in Europe?

AFAIK the best option is still to use one of the US providers(e.g. Alcor) and arrange for transportation. There is a problem with this though, in that until you arrive in the US your body will be cooled with dry ice which will cause huge ischemic damage.

Questions:

  1. How critical is the ischemic damage? If I interpret this comment by Eliezer correctly we shouldn't worry about this damage if we consider future technology.
  2. Is there a way to have adequate cooling here in Europe until you arrive at the US for final storage?

There is also KrioRus, a Russian cryonics company, they seem to offer an option of cryo transportation but I don't know how trustworthy they are.
Comment author: EGarrett 18 August 2014 08:44:54PM *  2 points [-]

This situation can be very similar to one of the ones with the relative being diagnosed with Alzheimer's above. You're concerned about how the person in question views the situation, which makes you feel anxiety. When they joke, it reveals that they have low anxiety or are in a non-threatening mood, which greatly deflates the tension for you. In that case, I'd say that the joke (without knowing much about it) greatly lowered your anxiety and thus elevated your laughter.

It may also be, of course, that there's a secondary evolutionary adaptation to laugh in scenarios where you want to demonstrate social closeness that the theory doesn't reflect. I do think that the current parameters of it can explain it though.

Comment author: roland 19 August 2014 06:59:18PM 1 point [-]

It seems I got the causation backwards. Lowering of the anxiety increased the laughter and not the other way round.

Comment author: roland 18 August 2014 07:07:12PM 3 points [-]

the other day I had to talk to a high status person and was very anxious. He made a joke and I burst out in laughter in a way that totally surprised me. Clearly my anxiety was channeled into that laughter. So more anxiety can also mean more laughter. I think this is a general rule, people always laugh at the emperors jokes.

Comment author: roland 18 July 2014 08:42:32PM 0 points [-]

relevant: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8050405

Random Solutions are Often Good Enough

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 11 June 2014 05:53:14AM 1 point [-]

That means that randomness has power, it spares you the cost of thinking.

I'd agree with that part.

Comment author: roland 11 June 2014 07:14:45PM 1 point [-]

It also offers a safeguard against errors in your thinking. If your thinking is wrong you might choose an algorithm that is bad given the evironment. Compare that to the probability of the random algo being matched by the environment.

Comment author: Vaniver 23 May 2014 08:57:14AM *  16 points [-]

I'm an expert in a neighboring field: numerical optimization. I've seen lots of evidence for Jaynes's impression that for any algorithm that uses randomness, one can find a deterministic technique (which takes thought) that accomplishes that goal better. (For example, comparing genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, and tabu search, the last has an deterministic memory mechanism that gives it the ability to do both diversification and intensification, with much more control than either of the other two.) Random methods are employed frequently because to do otherwise would require thought.

As for the debate, to me it looks like it was over terminology. To illustrate, let me label three different cases: the 'benign' case, where the environment is assumed to be dumb (i.e. maxent priors are reasonable), the 'adversary' case, where the environment is assumed to be an agent that knows your algorithm but not your private source of randomness, and the 'omega' case, where the environment is assumed to be an agent that knows your algorithm and your private source of randomness.*

Eliezer thinks the phrase 'worst case analysis' should refer to the 'omega' case. Scott thinks that the 'adversary' case is worth doing theoretical analysis on. The first is a preference that I agree with,** the second seems reasonable. I think Silas did a good job of summarizing the power that randomness does have:

Which is why I summarize Eliezer_Yudkowsky's position as: "Randomness is like poison. Yes, it can benefit you, but only if you use it on others."

*There's also a subtlety about solving the problem 'with high probability.' For a deterministic algorithm to have a chance at doing that, it needs to be the benign case- otherwise, the adversary decides that you fail if you left them any opening. For a randomized algorithm, the benign and adversary cases are equivalent.

**One of the things that Scott linked--when Monte Carlo goes wrong--is something that shows up a lot, and there's a whole industry built around generating random numbers. For any randomized algorithm, the real worst case is that you've got a PRNG that hates you, unless you've paid to get your bits from a source that's genuinely random, and if omega was the case that came to mind when people said 'worst case,' rather than adversary, this would have been more obvious. (vN got it, unsurprisingly, but it's not clear that the median CS researcher did until they noticed the explosions.)

Comment author: roland 23 May 2014 05:30:25PM 7 points [-]

Random methods are employed frequently because to do otherwise would require thought.

That means that randomness has power, it spares you the cost of thinking. Depending on the amount of thinking needed this can be quite substantial a value.

Life insurance for Cryonics, how many years?

4 roland 23 May 2014 05:15PM

Hello,

 

one question that I don't see answered is what is the duration of your life insurance? Should I buy life insurance for 20,30 years or unlimited?

I could pay more for a longer life insurance or pay less for an insurance that will cover 20 years and invest the difference and then some so that by the end of 20 years I will *hopefully* have enough money to pay for cryonics out of my own pocket.

Has anyone done an analysis on that?

 

Meetup Zürich last minute

1 roland 20 May 2014 01:11PM

Meetup tomorrow(Wednesday) at 19:30, lets go!

http://lesswrong.com/meetups/10j

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