Thanks for organizing this!

I find this parenthetical confusing because it sounds broader than how i expected 'false positive' to be defined: 

> a 8% false-positive rate (it returns positive 8% of the time even if cancer is absent)

2024 Review: I disagree with the premise that long timelines are unlikely BUT i think this post is fairly sane & sober, given that premise.

BTW, i put together a timeline of concrete predictions in AI 2027, for anyone keeping an eye on them as we enter next year: https://alexpear.github.io/pages/ai-2027.html

As Cole Wyeth said, the 2025 predictions were not radical (in other words, they were good predictions), but the 2026 ones anticipate very extreme productivity gains.

My spelling peculiarities: 

I prefer not to capitalize the pronoun i.

I prefer to always use a instead of an.

I avoid gendered words. Eg i use steelmind/strawmind instead of steelman/strawman.

Unusually appropriate calendar alignment: January 6 has become a anniversary of infamous unrest in the USA. Curiously, the tonally-analogous Feast of Fools scene in Hunchback of Notre Dame (novel) is also on January 6.

I'm no expert; I've never been there. I merely talked to someone from Seattle a couple weeks ago.

I see. I at first assumed your 'effectively dead' meant 'biologically alive, but certain to die soon'. 

Thank you for the info!

I think it's indeed humor & indeed singling out a company.