Josh You
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A modern fighter-bomber can carry 7-15 tons of ordinance, including external attachments (with penalties for aerodynamics and radar signature). Do we know how much US and Israeli fighters have been carrying per sortie on average?
edit: One F-35 variant has an internal capacity of three tons and a total capacity of nine tons.
:re "Companies leaving without the company" it's worth thinking about what the equilibrium is. Foreign companies in currently-allied countries (e.g. Mistral which is founded and heavily staffed by Meta and GDM alumni) are currently poaching US lab staff or buying US chips in moderately large quantities with either no objection or the support of the US government. For the US government to countenance changes to chip policies or sanctions(!) with respect to such companies, the political and technological situation would have to change significantly from today.
Don't know how to find comprehensive data but they had a development pipeline of 1100 homes in 2022 against a population of 13k. So that might increase their population by ~15%. And about 500 units approved in the pipeline right now. I think the original 1100 pipeline includes the now-opened "Emery" development which had 500 units.
If they approved housing at the rate of Seattle, the leader among large US cities, they would be approving around 1500 per decade. So it seems fast, though at a population density of 10k/sq mile they still might take a couple decades to reach SF density (18k) on current trends.
Isn't Emeryville kind of doing this? Though I'm not sure if they're maxing out the envelope of housing production from real costs even if a city government goes 100% YIMBY.
Bit of feedback: would be helpful if you explicitly stated your estimated number of H200 and Huawei chips and/or provide a B300-eq conversion table, so they are more comparable to other reports that are quoted just in number of chips. I understand how you do the conversion but it is not super apparent in the post.
One thing I don't know is when data center investments get committed to specific customers. Google and Amazon are Anthropic's two main compute partners and will spend $200B each in capex this year and are presumably planning and developing sites for many more hundreds of billions by 2028. So one possible view of it is that their capex creates a window, and Anthropic's eventual share depends on its funding and revenue. But Google and Amazon don't quite know how their 2027-2028 data centers will be allocated.
In general, for large data centers the specific lab that will use it is settled well before the late stages of construction, e.g. Stargate and Rainier, But I know independent data center developers often start developing a site without having a client pinned down. And smaller inference clusters are presumably more fungible.
A good term for 10^20 FLOP would be useful. This would make modern models around 100k to 10 million of this unit, which is a tangible number. Some people, e.g. at DeepMind tried to make "petaflop-days" (8.64e19) a thing but it didn't catch on.
Another point here is that elections are an additional check after the courts, Congress, etc. US presidential elections are not administered by the federal government, they are administered by the states. So to interfere with elections, the president can't just fill election boards with cronies or give orders to anyone in his chain of command to rig the election. He'd have to forcibly manipulate or interfere with state officials and state governments, risking direct conflict with states. And if he doesn't interfere with the election and the states announce results showing he lost in a landslide, his political power almost certainly evaporates. Of course, if all the president's crazy actions are in... (read more)
In-practice most federal offices have deferred to what the Supreme Court says, but we haven’t really seen what happens when e.g. a sitting president insists on an interpretation of the constitution that disagrees, and the constitution itself provides no clear answer.
This is a somewhat confusing statement. To be clear, it's extremely common for the president to disagree with courts on the law or Constitution: this happens dozens of times per presidential term. And when they lose in court the president may declare that they still think they are right and the Court ruled incorrectly. But this wouldn't cause a constitutional crisis or anything by default: the president almost always follows court orders... (read more)
Update: the internal/external distinction only matters for the F-35. The F-15E and F-18 Super Hornet don't have internal bomb compartments. I think those three are the main fighter-bombers being used by the US and Israel in this campaign.