Comment author: ArisKatsaris 25 April 2012 08:15:54AM 1 point [-]

Most people have IQ around 100 and are perfectly comfortable with the notion that accomplished PhD is smarter than they are.

How have you measured their level of comfort with the idea? Do you often tell such people that when they disagree with such an accomplished PhD, that the accomplished PhD is smarter than them? And do they tend to be appreciative of you saying that?

Comment author: semianonymous 25 April 2012 12:37:07PM 0 points [-]

Outside of politically motivated issues (e.g. global warming), most people tend to generally not disagree with accomplished scientists on the topics within that scientist's area of expertise and accomplishment, and to treat the more accomplished person as source of wisdom rather than as opponent in a debate. It is furthermore my honest opinion that Wang is more intelligent than Luke, and it is also the opinion that most reasonable people would share, and Luke must understand this.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 25 April 2012 08:07:10AM 0 points [-]

Trust me, it's quite easier to disregard an accusation/insult when you do not include an explicit chain of reasoning. It's harder to not respond to, because it mentally tags you as just 'enemy', but for the same reason it's easier to disregard.

As for "being obtuse", don't confuse civility with obtuseness. I knew you for what you are. I knew that the trolling and the flamebaiting is what you attempted to do, So I knew that any attempts to direct you towards a more productive means of discussion wouldn't be heeded by you, as they were counterproductive to your true goals.

But nonetheless, my suggestion has the benefit of explicitly pinpointing the failure in your postings, to be hopefully heeded by any others that are more honest at seeking to make an actual argument, not just troll people.

Comment author: semianonymous 25 April 2012 12:26:07PM 2 points [-]

It is not accusation or insult. It is the case though that the people in question (Luke, Eliezer) need to assume the possibility that people they are talking to are more intelligent than they are - something that is clearly more probable than not given available evidence - and they seem not to.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 24 April 2012 10:56:10AM 4 points [-]

If accomplishments is the only proxy you use to evaluate their relative intelligence, then it would have been all-around better if you had said "more accomplished" rather than "more intelligent", as it's more precise, less controversial, and doesn't confuse fact with inference.

Comment author: semianonymous 24 April 2012 06:45:45PM *  -2 points [-]

It also does not present valid inference. Ideally, you're right but in practice people do not make the inferences they do not like.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 24 April 2012 02:56:00PM 1 point [-]

If you stand by this statement as written, I'm at a loss for what your starting assumptions about social interactions even look like.

Conversely, if you only meant it as rhetorical hyperbole, would you mind glossing it with your actual meaning?

Comment author: semianonymous 24 April 2012 04:56:36PM *  0 points [-]

I try not to assume narcissist personality disorder. Most people have IQ around 100 and are perfectly comfortable with the notion that accomplished PhD is smarter than they are. Most smart people, also, are perfectly comfortable with the notion that someone significantly more accomplished is probably smarter than they are. Some people have NPD and have operating assumption 'I am the smartest person in the world' but they are a minority across entire spectrum of intelligence. There are also cultural differences.

Comment author: wedrifid 24 April 2012 06:10:56AM -1 points [-]

New to you. Not new to me. Should not have been new to you either. Study and train to reduce communication overhead.

The strength of your position is not commensurate with your level of condescension here. In fact, you seem to be just trying to find excuses to back up your earlier unjustified insults - that isn't something that JoshuaZ training and studying would help you with.

Comment author: semianonymous 24 April 2012 06:46:44AM 0 points [-]

I fail to see how the suggestion that Wang is much smarter than Luke is an insult - unless Luke believes that there can't be a person much smarter than him.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 24 April 2012 05:54:11AM 1 point [-]

Ah, that's what you meant by the other remark. In that case, this isn't backing up claimed prior proxies and is a new argument.

New to you. Not new to me. Should not have been new to you either. Study and train to reduce communication overhead.

Sorry if my point was unclear. The point is that this is a new argument in this discussion. That means it isn't one of the proxies listed earlier, so bringing it up isn't relevant to the discussion of those proxies. To use an analogy, someone could assert that the moon is made of rock and that their primary reason for thinking so is that Cthulhu said so. If when pressed on this, they point out that this is backed up by other evidence, this doesn't make revelation from Cthulhu turn into a better argument than it already was.

Exercise for you: calculate expected IQ of someone whom you know to have IQ>x .

This isn't a claim that his IQ as estimated is greater than x+ epsilon, since we can't measure any epsilon > 0. If you prefer, the point is that his writings and work demonstrate an IQ that is on the right end of the Bell curve by a non-trivial amount.

There are a lot of Chinese academics who come to the United States. So what do you mean by very difficult?

Those born higher up social ladder don't understand it is hard to climb below them too.

That doesn't answer the question in any useful way especially because we don't know where Pei Wang's original social status was. The question is whether his coming to the US for graduate school is strongly indicative of intelligence to the point where you can use it as a proxy that asserts that Wang is "dramatically" more intelligent than Luke. Without more information or specification, this is a weak argument.

Comment author: semianonymous 24 April 2012 06:29:37AM *  3 points [-]

My point is that this bell curve shouldn't be a new argument, it should be the first step in your reasoning and if it was not, you must have been going in the other direction. You seem to be now doing the same with the original social status.

I think I have sufficiently answered your question: I find Wang's writings and accomplishments to require significantly higher intelligence (at minimum) than Luke's, and I started with normal distribution as the prior (as everyone should). In any game of wits with no massive disparity in training in favour of Luke, I would bet on Wang.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 24 April 2012 05:04:44AM *  2 points [-]

That reply essentially ignores almost every comment I made. I'm particularly curious whether you are in agreement that Pei Wang isn't from a third world country? Does that cause any update at all for your estimates?

There is very little data on Luke and that is a proxy for Luke being less intelligent, dramatically so.

Also, if we go back in time 20 years, so that Pei Wang would be about the same age Luke is now, do you think you'd have an accomplishment list for Pei Wang that was substantially longer than Luke's current one? If so, how does that impact your claim?

Comment author: semianonymous 24 April 2012 05:26:20AM *  4 points [-]

I apologise for my unawareness that you call China second world. It is still the case that it is very difficult to move from China to US.

Also, if we go back in time 20 years, so that Pei Wang would be about the same age Luke is now, do you think you'd have an accomplishment list for Pei Wang that was substantially longer than Luke's current one? If so, how does that impact your claim?

If we move back 20 years, it is 1992, and Pei Wang has already been a lecturer in China then moved to Indiana University. Length of the accomplishment list is a poor proxy, difficulty is important. As I explained in the edit, you shouldn't forget about Bell's curve. No evidence for intelligence is good evidence of absence, on the IQ>100 side of normal distribution.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 24 April 2012 04:06:47AM 0 points [-]

Every single proxy for intelligence indicates a fairly dramatic gap in intelligence in favour of Wang

Can you state explicitly what proxies you are using here that you think indicate a dramatic gap?

Comment author: semianonymous 24 April 2012 04:17:31AM *  3 points [-]

Accomplishments of all kinds, the position, the likelihood that Wang has actually managed to move from effectively lower class (third world) to upper class (but I didn't look up where he's from, yet), etc.

What proxies do you think would indicate Luke is more intelligent? I can't seem to think of any.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 24 April 2012 01:52:05AM 1 point [-]

more intelligent, better educated, and more experienced

2 of these 3 seems to be clearly the case. I'm unsure how you are getting more intelligent. Your point may be valid completely without the intelligence bit in that intelligent people can easily be deeply mistaken about areas they don't have much education, and one sees that not that infrequently. I'm am however curious how you are making the intelligence determination in question.

Comment author: semianonymous 24 April 2012 04:01:11AM -2 points [-]

I'm unsure how you are getting more intelligent.

I'm unsure how you are not. Every single proxy for intelligence indicates a fairly dramatic gap in intelligence in favour of Wang. Of course for politeness sake we assume that they would be at least equally intelligent, and for phyg sake that Luke would be more intelligent, but it is simply very, very, very unlikely.

Comment author: semianonymous 23 April 2012 07:42:38PM *  2 points [-]

If you clear away all the noise arising from the fact that this interaction constitutes a clash of tribal factions...

Pei seems to conflate the possibility...

I'm finding these dialogues worthwhile for (so far) lowering my respect for "mainstream" AI researchers...

and so on.

I think it'd be great if SIAI would not lath on the most favourable and least informative interpretation of any disagreement, in precisely the way how e.g. any community around free energy devices does. It'd be also great if Luke allowed for the possibility that Wang (and most other people whom are more intelligent, better educated, and more experienced than Luke) are actually correct, and Luke is completely wrong (or not even wrong).

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