Comment author: kpreid 19 February 2013 04:18:12AM 12 points [-]

If something cannot at least in theory be tested by experiment then it has no effect on the world and lacks meaning from a truth stand point therefore rational standpoint.

Better version: …then it has no effect on the world and therefore is not useful to have information about.

As to the rest of your post, I will make a general observation: you are speaking as if epistemic rationality is a terminal value. There's nothing wrong with that (insofar as nobody can say someone else's utility function is wrong) but you might want to think about whether that is what you really want.

The alternative is to allow epistemic rationality to arise from instrumental rationality: obtaining truth is useful insofar as it improves your plans to obtain what you actually want.

Comment author: shaih 19 February 2013 04:51:06AM 0 points [-]

Good point, I often find myself torn between epistemic rationality as a terminal value and its alternative. My thoughts are learning how to treat truth as the highest goal would be more useful to my career in physics and would be better for the world then if I currently steered to my closer less important values.

Comment author: Manfred 19 February 2013 04:17:23AM 4 points [-]

I responded with truth trumps happiness and believing the dragon would force you to believe the false belief which is not worth the amount of happiness received by believing it

In the future, I hope you notice this sort of situation and respond by getting curious and engaging with the other person, rather than attempting to win the argument.

Today however Shminux pointed out to me that I held beliefs that were themselves non-falsifiable.

In fact, it's rather worse :) The negation of an unfalsifiable belief is also unfalsifiable - you unfalsifiably believe that Carl's garage does not have an immaterial dragon in it. Even if you make an observation, e.g. you throw a ball to measure the gravitational acceleration, you have an unfalsifiable belief that you have not just hallucinated the whole thing.

Comment author: shaih 19 February 2013 04:46:29AM -2 points [-]

In fact, it's rather worse :) The negation of an unfalsifiable belief is also unfalsifiable - you unfalsifiably believe that Carl's garage does not have an immaterial dragon in it. Even if you make an observation, e.g. you throw a ball to measure the gravitational acceleration, you have an unfalsifiable belief that you have not just hallucinated the whole thing.

As a general principle it would seem that the negation of an unfalsifiable belief is better then the falsifiable one. Meaning that the unfalsifiable belief has a much larger number of worlds in which it is true then the falsifiable one.

For example: There are many more possible ways that Carl does not have a immaterial dragon in his garage than possible ways that he does.

I think a good way to think about this meaning which unfalsifiable belief to hold is the evidence that brought it out of the original hypothesis space. In this way Timeless physics has a higher ratio of probability (p(timeless physics)/p(not timeless physics)) then an immaterial dragon.

However it is a warning flag to me when someone brings up that

you have an unfalsifiable belief that you have not just hallucinated the whole thing.

because of the negligible probability of this belief and giving it power in an argument would both be an example of Scope Insensitivity as well as preventing any useful work being done

Never the less it reminded me that i should be thinking in terms of probability to unfalsifiable beliefs rather then simply the fact that there unfalsifiable. maybe i should revise conjectures to unfalsifiable beliefs that are within a certain probability margin. say p=.8 to p=.2. I would still separate them from higher beliefs because simply labeling them with a probability is still not intuitive enough for myself not confuse them with scope insensitivity.

Falsifiable and non-Falsifiable Ideas

-1 shaih 19 February 2013 02:24AM


I have been talking to some people (few specific people I thought would benefit and appreciate it) in my dorm and teaching them rationality. I have been thinking of skills that should be taught first and it made me think about what skill is most important to me as a rationalist.

I decided to start with the question “What does it mean to be able to test something with an experiment?” which could also mean “What does it mean to be falsifiable?”

To help my point I brought up the thought experiment with a dragon in Carl Sagan’s garage which is as follows

Carl: There is a dragon in my garage
Me: I thought dragons only existed in legends and I want to see for myself
Carl: Sure follow me and have a look
Me: I don’t see a dragon in there
Carl: My dragon is invisible
Me: Let me throw some flour in so I can see where the dragon is by the disruption of the flour 
Carl: My dragon is incorporeal

And so on

The answer that I was trying to bring about was along the lines that if something could be tested by an experiment then it must have at least one different effect if it were true than if it were false. Further if something had at least one effect different if it were true than if it was false then I could at least in theory test it with an experiment.

This led me to the statement:
If something cannot at least in theory be tested by experiment then it has no effect on the world and lacks meaning from a truth stand point therefore rational standpoint.

Anthony (the person I was talking to at the time) started his counter argument with any object in a thought experiment cannot be tested for but still has a meaning.

So I revised my statement any object that if brought into the real world cannot be tested for has no meaning. Under the assumption that if an object could not be tested for in the real world it also has no effect on anything in the thought experiment. i.e. the story with the dragon would have gone the same way independent of its truth values if it were in the real world.

Then the discussion continued into could it be rational to have a belief that could not even in theory be tested. It became interesting when Anthony gave the argument that if believing in a dragon in your garage gave you happiness and the world would be the same either way besides the happiness combined with the principle that rationality is the art of systematized winning it is clearly rational to believe in the dragon.

I responded with truth trumps happiness and believing the dragon would force you to believe the false belief which is not worth the amount of happiness received by believing it. Even further I argued that it would in fact be a false belief because p(world) > p(world)p(impermeable invisible dragon) which is a simple occum’s razor argument.

My intended direction for this argument with Anthony from this point was to apply these points to theology but we ran out of time and we have not had time again to talk so that may be a future post.

 

Today however Shminux pointed out to me that I held beliefs that were themselves non-falsifiable. I realized then that it might be rational to believe non-falsifiable things for two reasons (I’m sure there’s more but these are the main one’s I can think of please comment your own)

1)   The belief has a beauty to it that flows with falsifiable beliefs and makes known facts fit more perfectly. (this is very dangerous and should not be used lightly because it focuses to closely on opinion)

2)   You believe that the belief will someday allow you to make an original theory which will be falsifiable.

Both of these reasons if not used very carefully will allow false beliefs. As such I myself decided that if a belief or new theory sufficiently meets these conditions enough to make me want to believe them I should put them into a special category of my thoughts (perhaps conjectures).  This category should be below beliefs in power but still held as how the world works and anything in this category should always strive to leave it, meaning that I should always strive to make any non-falsifiable conjecture no longer be a conjecture through making it a belief or disproving it. 

 

Note: This is my first post so as well as discussing the post, critiques simply to the writing are deeply welcomed in PM to me. 

 

Comment author: shminux 19 February 2013 12:14:54AM *  1 point [-]

timeless physics has a certain beauty

Sure does, but don't let yourself get tempted by the Dark Side. Beauty is not enough, it's the ability to make testable predictions that really matters. And Eliezer's two favorite pets, timeless physics and many worlds, fail miserably by this metric. Maybe some day they will be a stepping stone to something both beautiful and accurate.

Comment author: shaih 19 February 2013 12:23:20AM 0 points [-]

You have a very good point and have shown me something that I knew better and will have to keep an eye on closer for now on.

That being said Beauty is not enough to be accepted into any realm of science but thinking about beautiful concepts such as timeless physics could increase the probability of thinking up an original testable theory that is true.

In particular I'm thinking how the notion of absolute time slowed down the discovery of relativity while if someone were to contemplate the beautiful notion of relative time, relativity could have been found much faster.

In response to Memetic Tribalism
Comment author: shaih 19 February 2013 12:05:17AM *  0 points [-]

I think a main reason why I try to correct friends thought patterns is practice. With friends I get a certain amount of wiggle room, if I accidentally say something that insults them, or turns them off of rationality, or would cause a form a social friction, they would be inclined to tell me before it got between us. I can learn what I did wrong and don't have to keep bothering the same friend to the point of it actually hampering our friendship.

Lessons learned from this can be used to correct someones thought patterns when it is much more imperative for you to do so as in cases where

your ability to accomplish your goals directly depends on their rationality.

and allows you to teach these people whom having social conflict would be very difficult since they are typically people you have to cooperate with a lot.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 18 February 2013 11:40:07PM *  2 points [-]

Remove any confusions you might have about metaethics, figure out what it is you value, estimate what kind of impact the research you want to do will have with respect to what you value, estimate what kind of impact the other things you could do will have with respect to what you value, pick the thing that is more valuable.

Trying to retroactively judge previous research this way is difficult because the relevant quantity you want to estimate is not the observed net value of a given piece of research (which is hard enough to estimate) but the expected net value at the time the decision was being made to do the research. I think the expected value of research into nuclear physics in the past was highly negative because of how much it increased the probability of nuclear war, but I'm not a domain expert and can't give hard numbers to back up this assertion.

Comment author: shaih 18 February 2013 11:53:10PM 1 point [-]

I'm reading through all of the sequences (slowly, it takes a while to truly understand and I started in 2012) and by coincidence I happen to be at the beginning of metaethics currently. Until I finish I won't argue any further on this subject due to being confused. Thanks for help

Comment author: normalityrelief 18 February 2013 11:21:26PM 2 points [-]

Hi there community! My name is Dave. Currently hailing from the front range in Colorado, I moved out here after 5 years with a Chicago non-profit - half as executive director - following a diagnosis of Asperger Syndrome (four years after being diagnosed with ADHD-I). That was three years ago. Much has happened in the interim, but long story short, I mercilessly began studying what we call AS & anything related I could find. After a particularly brutal first-time experience with hardcore passive-aggressivism (always two sides to every situation, but it doesn't work well when no one will talk about it :P), I became extremely isolated, & have been now for about a year. I'm in my second attempt to return to school via a great community college, but unfortunately the same difficulties as last term are getting in the way.

BUT, that's a different story! I've had this site recommended to me a few times now because over the course of my isolation I've become completely preoccupied with all sorts of fun mental projects, ranging in topics from physics to consciousness to quantum mechanics to dance. My current big projects (I bounce around a loooooot) are creating a linear model for the evolution of cognitive development & showing in some way why I'm not sure i agree that time is the fourth dimension. Oh, also trying to develop a structure for understanding :)

After looking through a few of the welcome threads here, I'm excited to be here! Now all I have to do is keep consistent...

Comment author: shaih 18 February 2013 11:33:21PM -1 points [-]

Hello and welcome to lesswrong, your goal to understanding time as the 4th dimension stuck out to me in that it reminded me of a post that i found beautiful and insightful while contemplating the same thing. timeless physics has a certain beauty to it that resonates to me much better then 4th dimensional time and sounds like something you would appreciate.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 18 February 2013 10:53:19PM *  1 point [-]

I agree that this is a hard question.

General complaint: sometimes when I say that people should be doing a certain thing, someone responds that doing that thing requires answering hard questions. I don't know what bringing this point up is supposed to accomplish. Yes, many things worth doing require answering hard questions. That is not a compelling reason not to do them.

Comment author: shaih 18 February 2013 11:24:03PM 0 points [-]

I do not ask it because I wanted to stop the discussion by asking a hard question. I ask it because I aspire to do research into physics and will someday need an answer to it. As such I have been very curious about different arguments to this question. By no means did I mean by asking this question that there are things that should not be research simply how to go about finding them?

Comment author: PECOS-9 18 February 2013 10:58:54PM 3 points [-]

My preferred method has been to watch court cases on YouTube where it has come out afterword whether the person was guilty or innocent. I watch these videos before i know what the truth is make a prediction and then read what the truth is. In this way I am able to get situations where the person is feeling real emotions and is likely to hide what there feeling with fake emotions.

After practicing like this for about a week i found that i could more easily discern whether people were telling the truth or lying, and it was easier to see what emotions they truly felt.

That's a really cool idea. Did you record your predictions and do a statistical analysis on them to see whether you definitely improved?

Comment author: shaih 18 February 2013 11:06:39PM 3 points [-]

My knowledge of statistics at the time was very much lacking (that being said i still only have about a semesters worth of stat) so I was not able to do any type of statistical analysis that would be rigorous in any way. I did however keep track of my predictions and was around 60% on the first day (slightly better then guessing probably caused by reading books i mentioned) to around 80% about a week later of practicing every day. I no longer have the exact data though only approximate percentages of how i did.

I remember also that it was difficult tracking down the cases in which truth was known and this was very time consuming, this is the predominant reason that i only practiced like this for a week.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 16 February 2013 10:43:59PM *  5 points [-]

But the process of looking at the world, wondering how it works, then figuring out how it works, and then making it work the way you desire, that process carries with it no intrinsic moral qualities.

I don't know what you mean by "intrinsic" moral qualities (is this to be contrasted with "extrinsic" moral qualities, and should I care less about the latter or what?). What I'm saying is just that the decision to pursue some scientific research has bad consequences (whether or not you intend to publicize it: doing it increases the probability that it will get publicized one way or another).

Comment author: shaih 18 February 2013 10:47:50PM 0 points [-]

The majority of scientific discoveries (I'm tempted to say all but I'm 90% certain that there exist at least one counter example) have very good consequences as well as bad. I think the good and bad actually usually go hand in hand.

To make the obvious example nuclear research lead to both the creation of nuclear weapons but also the creation of nuclear energy.

At what point could you label research into any scientific field as having to many negative consequences to pursue?

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