Comment author: Dustin 25 August 2015 02:55:14PM *  3 points [-]

According to Gallup, 53% of people 18-40 (I'm 37) have children, and another 40% who don't want to.

Also according to Gallup and contrary to the implications in the original post, only 7% of all those aged 45+ with children would go back and not have children.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/164618/desire-children-norm.aspx

Comment author: slicedtoad 28 August 2015 02:46:18PM *  2 points [-]

"Go back and not have children"

Ehh, I don't think that's a valid question to ask someone with kids. It's effectively, "would you prefer your children not be alive right now?" Or, "do you consider your children mistakes now that you've raised them?".

I'm not sure what the optimal way to phrase the question would be but maybe:

"If your biological age was reset to 20, would you start another family?" Or "If you could give advice to the parallel universe you who is 25 years younger, would you tell him to have kids?"

Hmm, those still aren't great.

Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 14 August 2015 07:32:25PM 3 points [-]

If "except for all the others" only includes those that have been tried, then I mostly agree.

The original wording of that quote indeed was "No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time."

Comment author: slicedtoad 14 August 2015 08:16:37PM 0 points [-]

Hmm, yeah, I thought I remembered that quote having such a clause.

Comment author: slicedtoad 14 August 2015 07:31:00PM 0 points [-]

Typeo just above "Basal Ganglia" section.

For example infants are born with a simple versions of a fear response, with is later refined through reinforcement learning.

"with is later" should be "which is later"

Comment author: Lumifer 14 August 2015 04:24:40PM *  0 points [-]

The word "solution" has too much of engineering / hard sciences connotations for my liking.

Organising society is a process and the criteria of what can be considered a successful one are not stable on historic time scale unless you want to take the social darwinism approach.

Comment author: slicedtoad 14 August 2015 05:23:36PM 0 points [-]

You're right, "solution" has too much finality to it. How about "approach" as a replacement word that doesn't break the grammar above?

Comment author: ChristianKl 14 August 2015 04:22:25PM -1 points [-]

It would take an enormously skilled tactician to win the vote by selling actually useful policies to a population that prefers simple rhetoric aligning with their color.

That presupposes that you have to win election by explaining the policies that you honestly want to enact. In reality that's not how modern representative democracy work. Neither how it works in practice nor how it works in theory.

Comment author: slicedtoad 14 August 2015 05:18:17PM 0 points [-]

True, but you do need a platform that promises, at the very least, a direction that your policies are taking you. If, during your term, you completely neglect everything you talked about while running, you'll take a hit in the next election (unless you've miraculously been so effective during those 4/5 years that everyone is convinced you know better than them).

And if the point is to be the best liar and then do what you want in office, uh, why even have elections?

Comment author: Lumifer 14 August 2015 03:48:14PM 4 points [-]

makes democracy a seemingly futile solution to government

I am not sure what does "solution to government" mean, but there is a well-known Churchill quote: "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others".

Comment author: slicedtoad 14 August 2015 04:06:23PM 1 point [-]

"solution to government" means "solution to the problem of how organise society".

If "except for all the others" only includes those that have been tried, then I mostly agree. But if it includes all possible forms of social organisation, I strongly disagree. The idea that we've reached the best solution and it barely works is similar to the idea that we will never solve death. Either of those could be true, but there is not nearly evidence to stop us from trying.

Comment author: ScottL 14 August 2015 08:07:58AM *  10 points [-]

I am not into politics at all, but I think if you could change the following it would improve the political process. Currently politics seems to be based on arguing your position and gaining status for your team rather than seeking truth and the best policy.

  • Politics is the Mind-Killer – Politics is not a good area for rational debate. It is often about status and power plays where arguments are soldiers rather than tools to get closer to the truth.
  • Adversarial process - a form of truth-seeking or conflict resolution in which identifiable factions hold one-sided positions.
  • Color politics - the words "Blues" and "Greens" are often used to refer to two opposing political factions. Politics commonly involves an adversarial process, where factions usually identify with political positions, and use arguments as soldiers to defend their side. The dichotomies presented by the opposing sides are often false dilemmas, which can be shown by presenting third options.
  • Arguments as soldiers – is a problematic scenario where arguments are treated like war or battle. Arguments get treated as soldiers, weapons to be used to defend your side of the debate, and to attack the other side. They are no longer instruments of the truth.

A democracy is only as strong as the people that are people in it. It seems to me like politicians too often dwell on inconsequential, but politically important issues. They do this because voters care about these issues. The thing is, though, that voters are most often laymen. They are not experts. Therefore, I find it worrisome that politicians seem to discuss and change policies in order to placate voters. Obviously the opinions of voters should still matter, but when it comes to where politicians spend their effort and time. This should be based on what will provide the most benefit. I see two ways to overcome this: somehow get the voters more informed or change the political process somehow, this is related to the first point, so that there is less showboating, sycophantism and placation to the whims of voters.

  • Privileging the question - questions that someone has unjustifiably brought to your attention in the same way that a privileged hypothesis unjustifiably gets brought to your attention. Examples are: should gay marriage be legal? Should Congress pass stricter gun control laws? Should immigration policy be tightened or relaxed? The problem with privileged questions is that you only have so much attention to spare. Attention paid to a question that has been privileged funges against attention you could be paying to better questions. Even worse, it may not feel from the inside like anything is wrong: you can apply all of the epistemic rationality in the world to answering a question like "should Congress pass stricter gun control laws?" and never once ask yourself where that question came from and whether there are better questions you could be answering instead.
  • Error of crowds - is the idea that under some scoring rules, the average error becomes less than the error of the average, thus making the average belief tautologically worse than a belief of a random person. Compare this to the ideas of modesty argument and wisdom of the crowd. A related idea is that a popular belief is likely to be wrong because the less popular ones couldn't maintain support if they were worse than the popular one.
  • Most peoples' beliefs aren’t worth considering - Sturgeon's Law says that as a general rule, 90% of everything is garbage. Even if it is the case that 90% of everything produced by any field is garbage that does not mean one can dismiss the 10% that is quality work. Instead, it is important engage with that 10%, and use that as the standard of quality.

Politicians need to become more aware of complexity and the feedback caused by their policies. Understanding system dynamics would help tremendously in this regard.

  • Policy resistance - Frequently, a nonlinear feedback system will respond to a policy change in the desired manner for a short period of time, but then return to its pre-policy-change state. This occurs when the system's feedback structure works to defeat the policy change designed to improve it.
  • Goodhart’s law - states that once a certain indicator of success is made a target of a social or economic policy, it will lose the information content that would qualify it to play such a role. People and institutions try to achieve their explicitly stated targets in the easiest way possible, often obeying the letter of the law. This is often done in way that the designers of the law did not anticipate or want. For example, the soviet factories which when given targets on the basis of numbers of nails produced many tiny useless nails and when given targets on basis of weight produced a few giant nails.
Comment author: slicedtoad 14 August 2015 03:41:13PM *  -1 points [-]

The complexity of politics that these arguments demonstrate (and the "error of the crowds" itself) makes democracy a seemingly futile solution to government. It would take an enormously skilled tactician to win the vote by selling actually useful policies to a population that prefers simple rhetoric aligning with their color.

They would need:

  • Knowledge and skill at creating policies.
  • Sufficient background in all areas that the policies affect (weighted by importance and enough to make proper use of their advisors).
  • Ability to raise money without making promises that severely limit them once elected.
  • Excellent rhetorical abilities. Skilled enough to convince people of varying degrees of intelligence and differing allegiances to side with you despite your lack of focus on the "sexy" (but meaningless) topics.
  • Excellent negotiating abilities. Fair-representation means you will always have significant opposition once elected. Getting anything done will require tactical negotiating and efficient compromises.
  • ...lots of other things.

But someone who wants power really only needs rhetoric and a PR team that can find them the correct issues to align with. There is something wrong here.

Teenage me, with rather too much confidence, would say that we need a benevolent dictator. Now, with rather less confidence in my world-organizing abilities, I prefer voluntarism in some form. It is... less of a lottery and far more elegant. I just need to figure out if it's too idealistic to work.

Comment author: Lumifer 08 July 2015 03:38:38PM 2 points [-]

AFAIK domain experts almost all broadly agree.

The devil is in the details. They "broadly agree" on what? I don't think there's that much consensus on forecasts of future climate change.

Comment author: slicedtoad 13 July 2015 07:14:18PM 1 point [-]

Yes. This. And the details aren't trivial. They make a huge difference in policy. From "do nothing" to "reduce all growth and progress immediately or we go extinct".

Comment author: ChristianKl 08 July 2015 07:34:56AM 0 points [-]

As far as I can tell the experts don't agree

Who do you consider to be the experts and how do you know that they don't agree?

Comment author: slicedtoad 13 July 2015 07:06:57PM *  0 points [-]

They disagree in exactly the way gjm mentions below. Experts are climate scientists and scientists in related fields. Some politicians may be included as 'experts' in terms of solutions, too, I suppose. They disagree about the severity, cause, timeline and solution. And not by some trivial amount, but by enough to drastically shift priorities.

Also, while this is a reply to Eliezer's 2007 comment, I'm aware the situation has changed. I really just want to know how to begin to form a rational belief about climate change as of now.

I find climate change a strange issue. Not the situation itself but the public response and political tactics that are used.

On the surface, it looks like the vaccination controversies where one side goes "you guys are stupid for completely ignoring science". The difference is, the science for vaccines is rock solid. There is a negligible chance of vaccines hurting you. And we have an extremely large amount of evidence. Not evidence from computer models or something theoretical, but actual data from millions of people being vaccinated.

Climate change, no matter your opinion, cannot be said to be this sure of a thing. Yet the tactics used are the same. "If you don't take up our cause, you are the enemy of Science." Science isn't some deity. I don't obey out of some appeal to authority. It's useful because it can convince me with reason.

If the issue is trivial or unanimous, I may just accept the scientific consensus at face value. But for a possible existential threat that could either kill us or cost an unimaginable amount of money to prevent... And there are experts that disagree! And the consensus has changed several times in the last few decades! And politicians are pushing a certain direction! ...I'm not being ideological here, am I? This isn't a black and white issue is it?

Comment author: PK 18 October 2008 02:28:23AM 0 points [-]

We are missing something. Humans are ultimatly driven by emotions. We should look for which emotions beliefs tap into in order to understand why people seek or avoid certain beliefs.

In response to comment by PK on Dark Side Epistemology
Comment author: slicedtoad 09 July 2015 08:24:53PM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure what emotion it is, but I would hypothesize that it comes from tribal survival habits. Group cohesion was existentially important in the tribal prehuman/early-human era. Being accurate and correct with your beliefs was important, but not as important as sharing the same beliefs as the tribe.

So we developed methods of fitting into our tribes despite it requiring us to believe paradoxical and irrational things that should be causing cognitive dissonance.

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