Comment author: ChristianKl 30 August 2016 06:09:55PM 0 points [-]

There are some forms of doubts that you can easily reduce by simply adding more observations but not all. Seeing an infinitive amount of white swans doen't help you to completely rule out the black one.

Comment author: snewmark 04 September 2016 07:00:12AM 0 points [-]

MarsColony_in10years: Yeah, thanks. Sorry about the nitpicking.

ChristianKl: I think an infinite number would allow you to rule out the possibility (of a black swan that is). I thought that the problem was simply that we could never get an infinite number of them, but then again: I'm not certain.

Comment author: Jonathan_El-Bizri 30 October 2007 06:00:51AM 3 points [-]

Trivial annoyances and torture cannot be compared in this quantifiable manner. Torture is not only suffering, but lost opportunity due to imprisonment, permanent mental hardship, activation of pain and suffering processes in the mind, and a myriad of other unconsidered things.

And even if the torture was 'to have flecks of dust dropped in your eyes', you still can't compare a 'torturous amount' applied to one person, to substantial number dropped in the eyes of many people: We aren't talking about cpu cycles here - we are trying to quantify qualifiables.

If you revised the question, and specified stated exactly how the torture would affect the individual, and how they would react to it, and the same for each of the 'dust in the eyes' people (what if one goes blind? what of their mental capacity to deal with the hardship? what of the actual level of moisture in their eyes, and consequently the discomfort being felt?) then, maybe then, we could determine which was the worse outcome, and by how much.

There are simply too many assumptions that we have to make in this, mortal, world to determine the answer to such questions: you might as well as how many angels dance on the head of a pin. Or you could start more simply and ask: if you were to torture two people in exactly the same way, which one would suffer more, and by how much?

And you notice, I haven't even started to think about the ethical side of the question...

Comment author: snewmark 02 June 2016 04:12:52PM *  0 points [-]

And you notice, I haven't even started to think about the ethical side of the question...

I'm pretty sure the question itself revolves around ethics, as far as I can tell the question is: given these 2 choices, which would you consider, ethically speaking, the ideal option?

In response to Superhero Bias
Comment author: BlueAjah 12 January 2013 07:39:12PM 0 points [-]

The police officer is PAID to do that. He isn't doing it for free out of the goodness of his heart like the superhero is. He didn't have to make his own moral judgements like the superhero. He didn't have to resist the option of just taking whatever he wanted in life while nobody could stop him.

By the way, you should know better than to believe the PC propaganda about Ghandi.

In response to comment by BlueAjah on Superhero Bias
Comment author: snewmark 27 May 2016 04:16:52PM -1 points [-]

The police officer is PAID to do that. He isn't doing it for free out of the goodness of his heart like the superhero is.

Oh cool, so if I pay you will you let me kill you?

Comment author: snewmark 25 May 2016 07:13:57PM *  1 point [-]

You know the only thing worse than arguing about politics, is arguing why one shouldn't argue about politics.

Seriously though, while this post is/was important, I still think there should have been a request to not debate politics in this post's comment section, because you know, explaining why it's bad to debate politics in science blogs apparently wasn't enough.

In response to Think Like Reality
Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 03 May 2007 05:10:19AM 12 points [-]

Shakespeare, Feynman wrote that in 1966, which was before Everett's absolutely essentialy (and stunningly obvious in retrospect) insight spread through the physics community. Feynman's claim in 1966 that "Nobody understands QM" thus inadvertantly illustrates one of the other great truths, which is that nobody knows what nobody knows. The accumulated pool of scientific knowledge is far too vast for any one human mind to hold more than a tiny fraction. There are six billion people in the world, and you don't know what they know. Feynman should have stuck to saying "I don't understand QM", to which he could have attested of his own knowledge.

Quantum mechanics really was a very poor choice as my first example, because the application of "Think like reality" to QM is nontrivial. Before you conform your intuitions to reality, you should be very sure of what reality is.

Quantum mechanics tells us unambiguously that reality is over points in configuration space and that quarks and photons have no individual identities - if you pretend that a point in configuration space with photon 1 at A and photon 2 at B is different from a point in configuration space with photon 1 at B and photon 2 at A, you will get the wrong answer. So you have got to toss your intuitive understanding of little billiard balls, because it is definitely wrong, and start trying to wrap your understanding around configuration spaces until they seem normal, because they are definitely normal.

Once you have achieved a state where configuration spaces seem normal, many-worlds will also seem much more normal. If you insist on thinking of particles as individuals you will start to ask nonsensical questions like "Which branch am I in?" or "When does the 'observation' occur?" It seems to me that many-worlds is also cut-and-dried correct, but I understand that the reasons for this verdict may not be easily apparent to everyone. Questions like "How are amplitudes converted to subjective probabilities?" are not automatically dictated by the theory in the way that configuration spaces and lack of individual particle identities is dictated by the theory. So in this case, there is a legitimate question of what it is that you need to reshape your intuitions to regard as normal. If a QM interpretation seems weird, it may be that the interpretation in question is wrong and that you should not wrap your intuitions around it.

But what doesn't change, and this is the main point I was trying to make, is that you have to pick one or the other. If a theory seems bizarre to your intuitions, then either the theory is wrong or your intuitions need reshaping. Feynman felt he didn't understand QM, and lo and behold there was an additional insight required to make it seem normal. If Feynman thought that QM seemed bizarre and that this was okay, a state of affairs that didn't indicate a problem with either the theory or his intuitions, then that was historically incorrect - though I don't believe Feynman said as much in that many words.

Comment author: snewmark 25 May 2016 05:14:10PM *  0 points [-]

Feynman's claim in 1966 that "Nobody understands QM" thus inadvertently illustrates one of the other great truths, which is that nobody knows what nobody knows.

I don't think he was actually trying to say nobody understands quantum, I'm pretty sure he was actually saying (albeit in less words): "just because you don't understand quantum, does not mean that you are unintelligent, or that the theory is incorrect". I believe that as you pointed "nobody knows what nobody knows", implies that he wouldn't make such a statement with the intentions that it should be take literally, and consequently it seems significantly more probable that the intentions of the statement were something else entirely.

I would also like to note that the statement "nobody knows what nobody knows" has only one piece of evidence attached to it, and I am curious were else you noticed it taking effect.

Comment author: snewmark 25 May 2016 01:04:47PM 0 points [-]

So what if I'm a hypocrite? You're a hypocrite too!

Comment author: MarsColony_in10years 07 April 2015 03:53:12AM 0 points [-]

doubt that is not investigated still serves as a placeholder in one's mind

This seems to be popular opinion in the comments, and I'm inclined to agree that doubt can still be useful even if not investigated further. Yudkowsky pointed out above that the word "doubt" seems to have 2 meanings. It can refer either to an emotional state (such as the emotions a child feels when doubting Santa), or to a mathematical uncertainty (when you're not sure your conclusions are statistically significant).

In both cases, I can think of counterexamples where merely doubting without having the opportunity to act on those doubts still proves useful. In the mathematical sense, doubting provides an upper bound for how much you would trust a possibly-erroneous concision without investigating it. The emotional aspect cements this knowledge in your mind, and makes it come to mind much easier if it is needed in the future.

Perhaps doubting can best be thought of as having diminishing returns. The first time you think to doubt a statement, it is tested, and if it has no obvious flaws one can assign it a higher probability than one which hasn't been doubted. Additional thought returns less and less additional certainty, since it is less and less likely to disprove the statement. Eventually, the only value left is as a marker. Even then, the purpose of a red flag is to point out something that is actually uncertain, so the total value of a lingering doubt should go to zero if investigated forever.

Comment author: snewmark 25 May 2016 12:53:46PM 0 points [-]

...so the total value of a lingering doubt should go to zero if investigated forever.

Very well written, I just wanted to confirm something, I was under the impression that since nothing has 100% certainty, nothing can have a 0% uncertainty, you could get closer and closer, but you can never actually reach it. If I'm wrong or misunderstanding this I would appreciate it if someone would correct me, thanks.

In response to Value is Fragile
Comment author: snewmark 24 May 2016 07:41:07PM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure if 'fragile' is the right word, removing one component might be devastating, but in my opinion, that more reflects on the importance of each piece, and not so much on the fragility of the actual system. The way I see it, it's something like a tower with 4 large beams for support, if one takes out a single piece, it would be worse than, say if one removed a piece from a tower with 25 smaller beams to support it.

But other than that, thank you very much for the informative article.