(2) looks awfully hard, unless we can find a powerful IA technique that also, say, gives you a 10% chance of cancer. Then some EAs devoted to building FAI might just use the technique, and maybe the AI community in general doesn’t.

Using early IA techniques is probably risky in most cases. Commited altruists might have a general advantage here.

Risky Machines: Artificial Intelligence as a Danger to Mankind

I like the your non-fiction style a lot (don't know your fictional stuff). I often get the impression you're in total control of the material. Very thorough yet original, witty and humble. The exemplary research paper. Definitely more Luke than Yvain/Eliezer.

Navigating the LW rules is not intended to require precognition.

Well, it was required when (negative) karma for Main articles increased tenfold.

I'll be there!

Do you still want to do this?

To be more specific:

I live in Germany, so timezone is GMT +1. My preferred time would be on a workday sometime after 8 pm (my time). Since I'm a german native speaker, and the AI has the harder job anyway, I offer: 50 dollars for you if you win, 10 dollars for me if I do.

I agree in large parts, but it seems likely that value drift plays a role, too.

Well, I'm somewhat sure (80%?) that no human could do it, but...let's find out! Original terms are fine.

I'd bet up to fifty dollars!?