I understand that a lot of issues are solved, like the existence of god and so on, but I for one still haven't gotten an appropriate explanation as to why my claim, which seems perfectly valid to me, is incorrect. That proposal is going to further hinder this kind of discussion and debate.

And as far as I can tell, I'm correct. It's honestly very concerning to me that a bunch of lesswrongers have failed to follow this line of reasoning to its natural conclusion. Maybe I'm just not using the correct community-specific shibboleths, but the only one who's actually followed through on the logic is gwern. I look forward to seeing his counter reply to this.

In this case my judgement of the probabilities is that we are completely justified in ignoring the threat.

Do you consider my pascals mugging to be less likely then the general examples of the genre, or do you think that all pascals muggings" probabilities are that we are completely justified in ignoring the threat."

Fair enough. Would you mind explaining your intent then?

Well done. Roryokane mentioned it up here however.

Err, yes. Maybe it is. That's what I'm trying to find out...

Are you saying that I should take some action with the knowledge that it might just be a quirk in the system? Like not posting my hypothesis?

Ahh, makes sense. I actually found many different and interesting solutions to pascals mugging with my search terms though. Just not this "counter" solution.

This thread already shows up pretty close to the top for searches of "pascals mugging solutions" that I've attempted. For that exact phrase it's number 3, and has been before you posted this. I don't know that this particular solution needs to be more closely associated with the search terms then it already is.

If we have two gods, one claiming that if I do X, they'll mug me, and one claiming that if I don't do X they'll mug me, well I'm probably going to believe the god that isn't fuzzy and celery...

Because I doubt I can remember all of them. Also, I'm not entirely clear on why you have "quotes" around search-fu. It's a pretty accepted term on the internet. Search-fu is the skill one is employing when searching for something.

A more reasonable question seems to me like asking how I arrived at the answer, not asking how I failed to arrive at the answer. I find it odd that you'd go that particular route, and would be very interested if you could expand on why you wanted to see all of my failed attempts, instead of my one successful attempt?

Seeing all my failed attempts is more difficult for me to write out (there were a few of them) and contains less usable information. I'm curios as to why you'd pick that instead of what seems to me like the more reasonable "post the search term that got you the answer".

I never threatened to harm you. Yes, on average, you're significantly more likely to be in the torture group then where you are now, but anthropic principle and all that.

Not quite in the same class as the listed software. Useful, I've used them, but they get really complicated with more variables. If you look at what they've got, it doesn't exactly seem bayesian. They don't work of probability, but off of absolute truths. Debating each piece of minutia in a sort of tree structure. It could definitely be improved upon.