Comment author: RolfAndreassen 05 July 2013 09:41:39PM 1 point [-]

The thing to note here, is that, from the informational point of view of Dumbledore, provided he doesn't have some additional side-channel information, Scenario A and Scenario B are indistinguishable.

For Dumbledore, sure. Are the scenarios really indistinguishable for the whatever-it-is that keeps histories consistent and, presumably, enforces the six-hour rule? If not, Dumbledore has an obvious means of distinguishing between the scenarios: Attempt to travel six hours into the past, in steps of one hour, precommitting to telling someone what Amelia told him. In scenario B, the third hop will fail; in A, only the sixth.

Comment author: stcredzero 05 July 2013 09:50:34PM 0 points [-]

This is precisely what I meant when I mentioned the empirical side information detector. The "informational point of view of Dumbledore" is "whatever-it-is that keeps histories consistent," and the indistinguishability only has to come into play in the local context of whenever Dumbledore uses the time turner. In the way I've envisioned it to work, Dumbledore can only use your algorithm to detect leaked information or side-information that was available to him which he might not be aware of.

Comment author: DSherron 05 July 2013 08:20:10PM 3 points [-]

Given no other information to strictly verify, any supposed time-traveled conversation is indistinguishable from someone not having time-traveled at all and making the information up. The true rule must depend on the actual truth of information acquired, and the actual time such information came from. Otherwise, the rule is inconsistent. It also looks at whether your use of time travel actually involves conveying the information you gained; whether such information is actually transferred to the past, not merely whether it could be. Knowing that Amelia Bones has some information about 4 hours in the future will only restrict your time travel if you would transmit that information to the past - if you would act significantly differently knowing that than you would have otherwise. If you act the same either way, then you are not conveying information.

In short, the rule is that you cannot convey information more than 6 hours into the information's relative past, but that does not necessarily mean that you cannot go to a forbidden part of the past after learning it. It merely means that you cannot change your mind about doing so after learning it. Worth noting: if you plan on going to the past, and then receive some information from 6 hours in the future that changes your mind, you have conveyed information to the past. I'm not sure how that is handled, other than that the laws of the universe are structured as to never allow it to happen.

Comment author: stcredzero 05 July 2013 09:23:32PM *  0 points [-]

Your formulation of "indistinguishable" was already invalidated on reddit.com/r/hpmor by a different objection to my hypothesis. When you lie, you leak information. That information just puts the situation into the 6-hour rule. This cuts off the rest of your reasoning below. It also shows how hard the 6-hour rule is to "fool," which in turn explains why it hasn't been figured out yet.

EDIT: Rewrote one sentence to put the normal 6-hour rule back.

EDIT: Basically, if all of the information Dumbledore can receive from Amelia Bones could logically come from her departing anywhere between time X and time Y, then the metadata available to Dumbledore is effectively that, "Amelia Bones came from anywhere between time X and time Y."

In short, the rule is that you cannot convey information more than 6 hours into the information's relative past, but that does not necessarily mean that you cannot go to a forbidden part of the past after learning it. It merely means that you cannot change your mind about doing so after learning it. Worth noting: if you plan on going to the past, and then receive some information from 6 hours in the future that changes your mind, you have conveyed information to the past. I'm not sure how that is handled, other than that the laws of the universe are structured as to never allow it to happen.

I suspect my actual formulation (not your slight misread of it) and yours come out to much the same.

Comment author: stcredzero 01 July 2013 08:31:42PM 20 points [-]

From Chapter 6:

Harry was examining the wizarding equivalent of a first-aid kit, the Emergency Healing Pack Plus. There were two self-tightening tourniquets. A Stabilisation Potion, which would slow blood loss and prevent shock. A syringe of what looked like liquid fire, which was supposed to drastically slow circulation in a treated area while maintaining oxygenation of the blood for up to three minutes, if you needed to prevent a poison from spreading through the body. White cloth that could be wrapped over a part of the body to temporarily numb pain. Plus any number of other items that Harry totally failed to comprehend, like the "Dementor Exposure Treatment", which looked and smelled like ordinary chocolate. Or the "Bafflesnaffle Counter", which looked like a small quivering egg and carried a placard showing how to jam it up someone's nostril.

From Chapter 89:

"Fuego!" / "Incendio!" Harry heard, but he wasn't looking, he was reaching for the syringe of glowing orange liquid that was the oxygenating potion, pushing it into Hermione's neck at what Harry hoped was the carotid artery, to keep her brain alive even if her lungs or heart stopped, so long as her brain stayed intact everything else could be fixed, it had to be possible for magic to fix it, it had to be possible for magic to fix it, it had to be possible for magic to fix it, and Harry pushed the plunger of the syringe all the way down, creating a faint glow beneath the pale skin of her neck. Harry then pushed down on her chest, where her heart should be, hard compressions that he hoped was moving the oxygenated blood around to where it could reach her brain, even if her heart might have stopped beating, he hadn't actually thought to check her pulse.

The oxygenation potion also slows circulation. Did Harry accidentally kill Hermione? Would the potion have unintentionally prevented blood flow to her brain by retarding flow in her carotid artery, while unhelpfully oxygenating her neck? It makes sense that a potion designed to prevent the spread of poison would prevent movement of the blood. It's also stated that it works on "a treated area." If it's primarily meant to slow the spread of poisons from bites, the spell's "treated area" might be defined as the volume of flesh a certain distance away from the injection site.

Also, giving CPR to someone when their heart is still beating is definitely not good for them.

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 29 March 2013 01:39:55PM 3 points [-]
Comment author: stcredzero 31 March 2013 09:55:23PM 1 point [-]

Yes, but instead of the mechanism making the beliefs more radical in the context of the whole society, it acts to make beliefs more mainstream. Though, one could argue that a more jingoistic China would be more radical in the analogous larger context.

In response to An African Folktale
Comment author: nazgulnarsil3 16 February 2009 01:48:05AM 4 points [-]

A big part of the reason Africa stays poor is because nutrition and education is so poor that sub-saharan IQ's average about 70. Environmentalism pisses me off because for a fraction of what we are spending on the public hysteria we could be providing micro nutrients that would lead to huge decreases in overall suffering. Ditto with providing clean water.

What the hell is green tech? Is it just more efficient tech? Or does it have less to do with the technology and more to do with economic agents acknowledging externalities, consciously choosing to internalize some of that cost?

Comment author: stcredzero 04 March 2013 09:43:20PM 1 point [-]

What the hell is green tech? Is it just more efficient tech? Or does it have less to do with the technology and more to do with economic agents acknowledging externalities, consciously choosing to internalize some of that cost?

I'll take that as an analogy for what it means to be a moral person. (It's another way of talking about Kant's Categorical Imperative.)

Comment author: stcredzero 04 March 2013 06:42:49PM 1 point [-]

A person who is very intelligent will conspicuously signal that ey feels no need to conspicuously signal eir intelligence, by deliberately not holding difficult-to-understand opinions.

What does it mean when people hold difficult to understand moral opinions?

Comment author: DaFranker 07 December 2012 09:59:51PM *  0 points [-]

Ahem. Am I reading this right?

There's a 20-year-old human with three days left to live. They have a choice: Either they spend a million dollars having fun during those three days, or invest that million dollars in research to find a cure for their unique illness and put themselves on life support in the meantime. There is only 10% chance that a cure will be found within <10 years (after which life support fails), but if it is found, they gain all of their remaining life expectancy, which is probably more than 50 years.

You're telling us that everyone should party with the million dollars for three days, and then die.

Comment author: stcredzero 09 December 2012 11:58:55PM 2 points [-]

You're telling us that everyone should party with the million dollars for three days, and then die.

[Citation Needed] Ahem.

No, I'm not saying that. I'm painting the other position in a light so it's understandable. Your analogy is incomplete. What if they could also donate that million dollars to other research that could increase the life expectancy of 1000 people by 1 year with 90% certainty?

Comment author: Xianhang_Zhang 15 May 2008 09:22:52AM 2 points [-]

A good way I've found to explain this to lay people is that Science is a very high quality way of finding out what is almost certainly wrong. If Science says something is wrong and here is why, then it most probably is correct (relative to other methods of finding truth that is). Science is much worse at figuring out what is right because it's method of determining what is right is "Of all the possible hypotheses, we'll eliminate the wrong ones and choose the most probably of what exists". As a result, scientific knowledge is often over turned and revised as it should.

But what people outside of Science can't see is that almost never is a theory overturned for one which was previously considered wrong, it's usually the case that the new explanation is one that was never ruled out but considered less than probable. What this means is that, from outside of science, it's very hard to tell the difference between two very similar statements: "What you're saying is wrong because you don't have sufficient evidence to justify your claims" and "What you're saying is wrong because we've already discounted that hypothesis and here's why". Scientists can see that difference very clearly and behave in very different ways according to which argument you're making but to the outsider, what it looks like is arrogance and close-mindedness when Scientists reject an explanation without even bothering to give it the dignity of argument.

A more succinct way of putting this is that "Science can never prove than God does not exist but it has proved that your God does not exist"

Comment author: stcredzero 07 December 2012 09:41:30PM 2 points [-]

Science is much worse at figuring out what is right because it's method of determining what is right is "Of all the possible hypotheses, we'll eliminate the wrong ones and choose the most probably of what exists".

Someone should write a Sherlock script, where someone uses Sherlock's principle: "when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth," against him, so that he decisively takes the wrong action.

Comment author: stcredzero 07 December 2012 09:38:29PM 0 points [-]

"Call me when cryonicists actually revive someone," they say; which, as Mike Li observes, is like saying "I refuse to get into this ambulance; call me when it's actually at the hospital".

There was a time when expecting mothers did the rational thing by not going to the maternity ward. http://www.ehso.com/ehshome/washing_hands.htm#History

Resources to be devoted to cryonics and a future lifespan could also be devoted to the lifespan you are fairly sure you have right now. The situation would be more like getting into an ambulance, when there have been no known successful arrivals of ambulance trips and many known failures.

Comment author: stcredzero 01 December 2012 12:42:58AM 0 points [-]

It is important to be rational about charity for the same reason it is important to be rational about Arctic exploration: it requires the same awareness of opportunity costs and the same hard-headed commitment to investigating efficient use of resources

In his Mars Direct talks, Robert Zubrin cited the shoestring budget Amundsen expedition through the Northwest Passage in comparison to around 30 contemporary government funded expeditions with state of the art steam frigates and huge logistics trains. The Amundsen expedition traveled in a cheap little sealing boat and fed themselves largely through rifles and ammunition they brought with them.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Mm34Muv6Lsg#t=102s

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