Comment author: taw 18 June 2012 07:36:24PM 12 points [-]

Both this post and the one linked seem to be both about fictional utopias for literature, and actual optimal future utopias. These are completely unrelated issues the same way good fictional international conflict resolution is WW3, and good real world international conflict resolution is months of WTO negotiations over details of some boring legal document between 120+ countries.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 31 May 2012 03:05:18PM 7 points [-]

Well, then I'm puzzled why you didn't reply to these misguided assertions.

In any case, the paper you cite may well be correct point-by-point, but on the whole, it's a lawyerly argument that tries to overwhelm and misguide the readers by amassing a pile of hand-picked one-way evidence that will dazzle them and make them lose sight of the overall balance of evidence. As I wrote in that earlier comment thread in response to similar points:

As for heritability studies, you are certainly right that there is a lot of shoddy work, and by necessity they make a whole lot of wildly simplifying assumptions. If there existed only a handful of such studies, one would be well advised not to take them very seriously. However, the amount of data that has been gathered in recent decades is just too overwhelming to dismiss, especially taking into account that often there have been considerable ideological incentives to support the opposite conclusions.

Comment author: taw 31 May 2012 10:57:08PM -1 points [-]

Well, then I'm puzzled why you didn't reply to these misguided assertions.

Sadly there are many blind spots here where groupthink rules, and people will just happily downvote anybody who has a different opinion. They are not worth replying to. I see the downvote brigade found this thread as well.

Comment author: gjm 30 May 2012 08:27:30AM 2 points [-]

Looks (though I've barely skimmed it) like good evidence that twin studies say less than one might naively think. Doesn't say anything about Caplan. Care to say a thing or two about what Caplan thinks twin studies say and how it differs from what analysis like that reveals that they say?

(Perhaps I'm just unduly lazy; I was hoping to find an easier way of assessing your claim versus Caplan's than by procuring a copy of Caplan's book, reading it carefully, reading a technical paper on twin studies, examining the particular studies on which Caplan's claims depend, and comparing his use of them with the analysis in the aforementioned technical paper. Of course that's the only way if I want to be really sure, but ... well, I'm lazy and was hoping there might be a shortcut :-).)

Comment author: taw 30 May 2012 10:25:30AM -1 points [-]

You're too lazy, no shortcuts this time.

Caplan's claim doesn't depend on this line of argumentation, but if it was true (which it's not) it would make his point extremely strongly. Weaker claim that normal parenting styles don't affect outcomes much, because the rest of environment (and genes) together have much greater impact is perfectly defensible.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 30 May 2012 05:59:39AM 4 points [-]

Also, twins share their uterine environment.

This wouldn't apply to IVF twins reared apart, but I doubt there's much of that in the studies.

Comment author: taw 30 May 2012 10:23:13AM 2 points [-]

As we know from natural experiment of Dutch famine of 1944 mother's health is extremely important. This brief event had significant effects on two generations.

Comment author: gjm 30 May 2012 08:28:11AM 2 points [-]

Why's that relevant, when the question is what parents can change by how they treat their children? (It would be highly relevant if the question were "how much of these differences are genetic?", but on this occasion it isn't.)

Comment author: taw 30 May 2012 10:19:45AM 0 points [-]

Caplan's arguments are totally wrong, it doesn't make his thesis wrong. I'd expect his thesis to be very likely to be at least mostly correct.

Comment author: jsalvatier 30 May 2012 02:09:19AM 1 point [-]

As I understand it, the strongest evidence for his thesis comes from adoption studies, do you disagree?

Comment author: taw 30 May 2012 03:32:12AM 5 points [-]

The way I see it all heredity studies (adoption, twins etc.) are pretty much universally worthless due to ridiculously wrong methodology (see this for details).

It is trivially observable that populations change drastically in every conceivable way without any genetic change, including along every single behavioral axis claimed to be "highly hereditary" (and the same even applies to many physical features like height, but not others like skin or eye color). Heredity studies are entirely incompatible with this macro reality, regardless of their (universally awful) methodology.

The best argument for Caplan's thesis is that even if we accept that environmental effects totally overwhelm genetic effects (which we should), there's still very little evidence that parental effort within range of typical first world middle class parenting make a big difference.

Comment author: gjm 30 May 2012 12:04:45AM 2 points [-]

This seems plausible on the face of it, but do you have some evidence or argument to back it up?

Comment author: taw 30 May 2012 01:45:58AM 2 points [-]
Comment author: taw 29 May 2012 06:43:33PM 3 points [-]

Caplan is drastically overinterpretting evidence for heredity of features, and his main thesis relies on them far too much.

Comment author: Mercurial 24 May 2012 07:03:21PM 2 points [-]

Thank you!

Do you happen to know anything about the claim that we're running out of the supplies we need to build solar panels needed to tap into all that wonderful sunlight?

Comment author: taw 27 May 2012 05:13:46AM 0 points [-]

Solar panel prices are on long term downward trend, but in the short term they were very far from smooth over the last few years, having very rapid increases and decreases as demand and production capacity mismatched both ways.

This issue isn't specific to solar panels, all commodities from oil to metals to food to RAM chips had massive price swings over the last few years.

There's no long term problem since we can make solar panels from just about anything - materials like silicon are available in essentially infinite quantities (manufacturing capacity is the issue, not raw materials), and for thin film you need small amounts of materials.

Comment author: APMason 23 May 2012 05:19:14PM 6 points [-]

Why are we not counting philosophers? Isn't that like saying, "Not counting physicists, where's this supposed interest in gravity?"

Comment author: taw 23 May 2012 07:47:52PM -2 points [-]

Philosophy contains some useful parts, but it also contains massive amounts of bullshit. Starting let's say here.

Decision theory is studied very seriously by mathematicians and others, and they don't care at all for Newcomb's Paradox.

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