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I don't think we need the transcripts to discuss whether a hypothetical strategy would be allowed.
Well, put it this way, if Eliezer had performed a trick which skirted the rules, he could hardly weigh in on this conversation and put us right without revealing that he had done so. Again, not saying he did, and my suggestion upthread was one of many that have been posted.
As I understand it, that would violate the rules, and it would be appealing to the utility of the person playing the Gatekeeper, rather than the Gatekeeper. If there were actually an AI trying to get out, telling the Gatekeeper "You're actually just pretending to be a Gatekeeper in an experiment to see whether an AI can get out of a box, and if the result of the test shows that the AI can get out, that will increase research funding" would probably not be effective.
You're quite possibly right, and without access to the transcripts it's all just speculation.
No, Derren Brown is a mentalist. He is either capable of psychologically manipulating people, or he's a fraud. For instance, there's a video of him doing an apparent cold reading on a woman, and the woman agrees that he's right. One explanation presented on LW was that he actually made a bunch of obviously true statements, and swapped out the audio to make it seem like the woman was agreeing with a non-trivial cold reading. Swapping out audio is not a "magic trick", it's just plain fraud.
I'm fairly certain he is a fraud by your definition then. Magician's often do these kind of things, and Derren Brown is a magician. He does not have access to secret powers others know not of, so for each trick think how someone else would replicate it. If you can't think of an honest way, then it's probably a trick.
That's not to say some of his tricks aren't done by known mental manipulation tricks (as far as I'm aware, hypnotists are reasonably genuine?) but if he is doing something that seems completely confounding, I am quite happy to guarantee that it is not a trick and not the awesome mind powers he has unlocked.
Put it this way. During the Russian roulette trick, do you think it likely that Channel 4 would have okayed it if there was the slightest possibility that he could actually kill himself?
How do we know EY isn't doing the same?
Indeed. Given a lack of transcripts being released, I give a reasonable amount of probability that there is a trick of some sort involved (there have been some proposals of what that might be, e.g. "this will get AI research to get more donations"), although I don't think that would necessarily defeat the purpose of the trick: after all, the AI got out of the box either way!
In response to
xkcd on the AI box experiment
The explainxkcd.com explanation of the comic is quite balanced and readable.
It is, although I found this
"People who aren't familiar with Derren Brown or other expert human-persuaders sometimes think this must have been very difficult for Yudkowsky to do or that there must have been some sort of special trick involved,"
amusing, as Derren Brown is a magician. When Derren Brown accomplishes a feat of amazing human psychology, he is usually just cleverly disguising a magic trick.
To you really think that's how people discover websites?
I think it's much more likely that someone clicks on a link to a LW post. If the post is interesting he might browse around LW and if he finds interesting content he will come back.
Not everyone. But I think an xkcd comic about the AI box experiment would be an opportunity to let everyone know about less wrong, not to have another argument about the basilisk which is a distraction.
that status-regulation-blind thing Eliezer often has going on.
Maybe he should have it going on, and damn the consequences. Sometimes you have to get up and say, these are the facts, you are wrong. Not the vapid temporising recommended by thakil.
There are some times when a fight is worth having, and sometimes when it will do more harm than good. With regards to this controversy, I think that the latter approach will work better than the former. I could, of course, be wrong.
I am imaging here a reddit user who has vaguely heard of less wrong, and then reads rational wiki's article on the basilisk (or now, I suppose, an xkcd reader who does similar). I think that their take away from that reddit argument posted by Eliezer might be to think again about the rational wiki article, but I don't think they'd be particularly attracted to reading more of what Eliezer has written. Given that I rather enjoy the vast majority of what Eliezer has written, I feel like that's a shame.
That's pretty much what he did here, except perhaps the tone isn't quite so modest and has a bit of that status-regulation-blind thing Eliezer often has going on.
Yeah I've read that and I feel like it's a miss (at least for me). It's an all together too serious and non-self deprecating take on the issue. I appreciate that in that post Eliezer is trying to correct a lot of mis perceptions at once but my problem with that is
a)a lot of people won't actually know about all these attacks (I'd read the rational wiki article, which I don't think is nearly as bad as Eliezer says (that is possibly due to its content having altered over time!)), and responding to them all actually gives them the oxygen of publicity. b)When you've made a mistake the correct action (in my opinion ) is to go "yup, I messed up at that point", give a very short explanation of why, and try to move on. Going into extreme detail gives the impression that Eliezer isn't terribly sorry for his behaviour. Maybe he isn't, but from a PR perspective it would be better to look sorry. Sometimes it's better to move on from an argument rather than trying to keep having it!
Further to that last point, I've foudn that Eliezer often engages with dissent by having a full argument with the person who is dissenting. Now this might be a good strategy from the point of view of persuading the dissenter: if I come in and say cyronics sux then a reasoned response might change my mind. But by engaging so thoroughly with dissent when it occurs it actually makes him look more fighty.
I'm thinking here about how it appears to outside observers: just as with a formal debate the goal isn't to convince the person you are arguing with, it is to convince the audience, with PR the point isn't to defeat the dissenter with your marvellous wordplay, it is to convince the audience that you are more sane than the dissenter.
Obviously these are my perceptions of how Eliezer comes across, I could easily be an exception.
In response to
xkcd on the AI box experiment
(ok, I deleted my duplicate post then)
Also worth mentioning: the Forum thread, in which Eliezer chimes in.
So I'm going to say this here rather than anywhere else, but I think Eliezer's approach to this has been completely wrong headed. His response has always come tinged with a hint of outrage and upset. He may even be right to be that upset and angry about the internet's reaction to this, but I don't think it looks good! From a PR perspective, I would personally stick with an amused tone. Something like:
"Hi, Eliezer here. Yeah, that whole thing was kind of a mess! I over-reacted, everyone else over-reacted to my over-reaction... just urgh. To clear things up, no, I didn't take the whole basilisk thing seriously, but some members did and got upset about it, I got upset, it all got a bit messy. It wasn't my or anyone else's best day, but we all have bad moments on the internet. Sadly the thing about being moderately internet famous is your silly over reactions get captured in carbonite forever! I have done/ written lots of more sensible things since then, which you can check out over at less wrong :)"
Obviously not exactly that, but I think that kind of tone would come across a lot more persuasively than the angry hectoring tone currently adopted whenever this subject comes up.
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Video trickery is not magic. There's a difference between appearing to put a ball under a cup when you actually palmed it, versus actually putting the ball under the cup, turning off the camera, taking the ball out from under the cup, turning the camera back on, and then showing that there's nothing under the cup. The former is being a magician, and the latter is being a fraud.
Another: suppose I ask an audience member to think of a number, and they say "217". I say that I predicted that they would say "217", and pull a piece of paper out of my pocket that says "The audience member will say '217' ". If I used subliminal messages to prompt them to say "217", that's mentalism. If I managed to write "The audience member will say '217' " on a piece of paper and slip it into my pocket without anyone noticing, that's sleight of hand. If the audience member is actually in on it, that's just bare deceit. That's not to say that having confederates is illegitimate, but if the entirety of your trick consists of confederates, that's not magic.
In some of Derren Brown's tricks, mentalism, sleight of hand, and trickery are all credible hypotheses. But for many of them, there's simply no way he could have done it through sleight of hand. Either he did it through mentalism, or he did it through trickery.
I don't know what the details of the Russian roulette trick were, but my inclination is to doubt there was sleight-of-hand.
Well. While sleight of hand is a key tool in magic, traditionally confederates and even camera tricks have been too. David Blaine's famous levitation trick, for instance, looks so impressive on TV because they cheated and made it look more impressive than it is.
Mentalism as a magic power is not a real thing, sorry. It is a title magician's sometimes took and take to make their act look different. http://simonsingh.net/media/articles/maths-and-science/spectacular-psychology-or-silly-psycho-babble/ Simon Singh on some of the tricks. http://www.secrets-explained.com/derren-brown has a list of some of the tricks he performs as well.