In response to comment by [deleted] on No peace in our time?
Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 27 May 2015 09:39:05AM 1 point [-]

Pinker argues that all types of violence are going down. Cirillo and Taleb deliberately chose to ignore homicides:

We avoided discussions of homicide since we limited L to values > 10, 000, but its rate doesn’t appear to have a particular bearing on the tails. It could be a drop in the bucket. It obeys different dynamics. We may have observed lower rate of homicide in societies but most deaths risks come from violent conflict.

I'd note that they chose to ignore homicides, and it seems that homicides undermine their general point.

Comment author: theseus 29 May 2015 09:06:27AM 2 points [-]

Pretty sure I remember reading Taleb on this, stating that homicides follow a normal distribution and he accepts Pinker's argument there. He de-couples this from the other kinds of violence, saying that the narrative stretches too wide--specifically warfare should be analyzed separately, since that follows Pareto distributions.

In response to comment by DanielLC on On immortality
Comment author: Algon 09 April 2015 08:04:55PM *  0 points [-]

I see what you're saying, but I don't think that the two situations are equivalent. I'm not going by the many worlds interpretation, but the Copenhagen one. In a finite universe, I understand that one is not guaranteed immortality, and even in the many worlds interpretation, immortality is iffy as Tegrmark has explained. Though I do see the point of your second objection, I think that it is not illogical to go either way on this point. I act under a coherence theory of Truth, so my attempt at grasping Truth may lead me down a different path to your attempt, but we will eventually meet up somewhere, given enough time.

Thanks for taking a time to reply! By the way, why do you think I got down voted? Was it the tone, my saying something obvious or something else entirely? I'd be much obliged if you could critique my post a little more.

In response to comment by Algon on On immortality
Comment author: theseus 11 April 2015 01:52:03AM *  0 points [-]

My guess is the mostly the tone and the overly strong conclusion.

The topic is certainly one that is close to home for a lot of LWers and it seems to me we've heard almost all the variations. Then the tone, of a kind of artistic revelatory piece introducing lots of ideas only to dismiss them soon after, seems much more appropriate for a journalistic piece than the kind of deep logical thinking strived for here. Putting arguments in the reader's mouth and talking very patronizingly ("you're a picky one... my friend... this probably isn't going where you expect it to...Algon's recipe for immortality") also doesn't work great in my opinion.

The conclusion is also a point of contention, as people here tend to like calibration and it seems a little too overconfident. Reductionists don't necessarily believe that another copy of you springing into existence later will be the same consciousness, and many readers have commented that they don't. For one example, Scott Aaronson proposes an interesting possibility. Similarly, issues about the universe being infinitely long and infinitely recurring, etc., are very much debatable, with most evidence coming out against you. Then to not treat any of these other possibilities, but whisk through each as if one narrow interpretation did it, seems to me not to be a helpful discussion of the topic so much as a narrow attempt at showing wit.

On the plus side, it's cool that you asked for constructive help and were willing to engage, and I think more research into and consideration of these ideas could lead somewhere good.

Comment author: DanielLC 13 November 2014 05:50:03AM 1 point [-]

That would be true if they were hunting people down. As stated, people would become more resistant to going to hospitals, which would cause problems that way.

Comment author: theseus 04 January 2015 10:03:33AM 0 points [-]

This is an exact instance of the point of the post. It is important to assume they are hunting people down, because that's the LCPW and the fact that this trolley problem incorporates using someone who shows up at the hospital is entirely an unnecessary contingent fact.