If a person wanted to make their prediction of human-level AI entirely based on what was best for them, without regard to truth, when would be the best time? Is twenty years really the sweetest spot?
I think this kind of exercise is helpful for judging the extent to which people's predictions really are influenced by other motives - I fear it's tempting to look at whatever people predict and see a story about the incentives that would drive them there, and take their predictions as evidence that they are driven by ulterior motives.
Subscribe to RSS Feed
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
After all this, when do you think human level AI will arrive?
Sometime after the Singularity. We already have AI that surpasses humans in several areas of human endeavor, such as chess and trivia. What do you define as "human level"? The AIs we have now are like extremely autistic savants, exceptional in some areas where most people are deficient, but deficient to the point of not even trying in the thousands of others. Eventually, there will (in theory) be AIs that are like that with most aspects of human existence, yet remain far inferior in others, and perhaps shortly after that point is reached, AIs will surpass humans in everything.
Trying to predict "when" seems like trying to predict which snowflake will trigger an avalanche. I really don't think it can be done without a time machine or an already operational superintelligent AI to do the analysis for us, but the snow seems to be piling up pretty fast.