1) the probability of ending up in the set of winners is
1/billion
2) the probability of being (a specific) one of the trillion is
1/(b * t)
the probability of being a 2) given you are awake is
p(2 | awake) = P(awake | 2) * p(2) ------------------- p(awake)
= 1 * 1E-21 --------- 1 = very small
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1) the probability of ending up in the set of winners is
1/billion
2) the probability of being (a specific) one of the trillion is
1/(b * t)
the probability of being a 2) given you are awake is
p(2 | awake) = P(awake | 2) * p(2) ------------------- p(awake)