I agree figuring out whether this might collapse ecosystems is important, (and what this collapse would entail, it would probably go beyond mosquitos and lead to some species rebalancing, but pretty darn sure not "destroy everything" either)
There are mosquito populations that you shouldn't try to exterminate, because they are important to their ecosystem. If you get rid of them a bunch of birds have no food and so they are gone too etc. But they are up here in the arctic. Getting rid of all the tropical mosquitoes is good for everyone and does not have any great effects on any ecosystem. Everyone that eats mosquitoes there also has other insects that they prefer to eat.
Thanks a lot; I'll this it into account, and think how to improve this in next versions.
Though with the "next day" button, it would be a hard tradeoff - you might not have had this experience, but sometimes you travel and your timezone settings get messed up, or your phone's clock is reset etc. It's possible to design something that would avoid these problems, but it's a pretty big change in the internals of the app.
The temptation to delay clicking it and catch up the next day is strong.
This is surprising to me - the algorithm in the app makes it strictly easier to catch up when you click the button first, and then do the tasks rather than the other way around. Is it not enough incentive to make you want to click the button, rather than "cheat"?
I think it is about the don't break the streak thing. Suppose that you decide to run every day, and you do it in the morning every day from Sunday to Thursday, then sleep in and don't have time for it on Friday. Now on Saturday you can either advance the day before your run and have a one day streak, or you can run twice, once before and once after advancing the day and have a seven day streak.
But roughly only a half of accidents could be blamed on each car driver, so even safest driver would get only 50 per cent reduction in accident rate. Other reckless drivers could rear-end him or even t-bonned.
Many serious accidents are single car crashes (more than half here). And a lot of collisions that aren't officially your fault you can still avoid if you pay attention.
the benefit of jobs, net of pay
Compared to what?
Compared to not having a job presumably. But you raise a good point. It might be easier to find relevant studies by looking for research on the effects of unemployment or retirement.
Doesn't this suffer from a similar problem as group selection?
Imagine that the first mutant gets lucky and has 20 children; 10 of them inherited the "help your siblings" genes, and 10 of them did not. Does this give an advantage to the nice children over the non-nice ones? Well, only in the next generation... but then again, some children in the next generation will have the gene and some will not... and this feels like there is always an immediate disadvantage that is supposed to get balanced by an advantage in the next generation, except that the next generation also has an immediate disadvantage...
Uhm, let's reverse it. Imagine that everyone has the "help your siblings" gene, in the most simple version that makes them take a given fraction of their resources and distribute it indiscriminately among all siblings. Now we get one mutant that does not have this gene. Then, this mutant has an advantage over their siblings; the siblings give resources to mutant, not receiving anything in return. Yeah, the mutant is causing some damage to the siblings, reducing the success of their genes. But we don't care about genes in general here, only about the one specific "don't help your siblings" allele; and this allele clearly benefits from being a free-rider. And then it reproduces with some else, who is still an altruist, and again 50% of the mutant's children inherit the gene and get an advantage over their siblings.
So we get the group-selectionist situations where families of nice individuals prosper better than mixed families, but within each mixed family the non-nice individuals prosper better. This would need a mathematical model, but I suspect that unless the families are small, geographically isolated, and therefore heavily interbreeding, the nice genes would lose to the non-nice genes.
Your siblings is not a reproductively isolated population (hopefully=)). The relevant question is if the helpers are more or less fit relative to the population as a whole. So in your example, where the helpers give up something and get back less, the gene goes extinct.
But start instead of just zero-sum redistribution with something like that trust game where you send money through a slot and whatever amount you send the other guy gets triple. But it's multiplayer and simultaneous. So the helpers give up some amount, let's say x each and every family member gets three times what the average participant gave up. If half of the family members are helpers then everyone gets 3x/2. Which is more than x, so now the gene gives a fitness advantage.
EY was attempting to spread his ideas since his first post on overcomingbias. This pattern was followed through entire Sequences. Do you regard this as different from then?
Means and ends. LW was the means of "spreading his ideas" as you put it. Whereas Gleb is promoting the idea that we should do outreach for LW. LW as the end.
Ok, this is something I have been thinking every time I see an Outreach Thread, and now I can't resist asking it:
When did LW become a proselytizing community?
And are we sure that it is a good idea to do a lot of outreach when the majority of discussion on the site is about why LW sucks?
Even then, the system is opt-out. Anyone can become a renunciate who are beyond caste.
Can you give me a source for this? I've never heard of anyone renouncing their caste, and I have heard about many instances of lower-caste people lying about their caste, and I can't reconcile the two.
Beyond caste might be misleading. You can always become casteless, but that is worse than being the lowest caste.
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My girlfriend and I disagreed about focussing on poor vs richer countries in terms of doing good. She made an argument along the lines of:
What do you make of it?
If that's your real reason, perhaps the best way to help poor Australians is to import stuff from Africa so that they get that supply of suitable goods. Or better yet invite some Kenyans to teach them how to make things themselves.