I doubt there is much motivation here for "at least 20 years" except the very fact that it is hard to tell what will happen in 20 years.
I agree with Robin Hanson that we are maybe 5% of the way to general AI. I think 20 years from now the distance we were from AI at this point will be somewhat clearer (because we will be closer, but still very distant.)
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My thoughts:
Google has (is) the biggest computer program = 3 bln lines of code
Google has world biggest database, including Youtube, 23andme, Gmail, Google books, all internet content
Google is the world biggest computer, which includes something like 1 per cent of total world computing power
Google did most impressive AI demonstartion recently that is win in Go.
Google is clearly interested in creating AI.
Google has AI safety protocol.
Google has money to buy needed parts, including people.
So it looks like Google is in winning position. How may be its main competitors? Military AIs in NSA. Other large companies.
Citation?