To me this just seems like a disconnect between the way language is parsed by the speaker and the listener. When I hear somebody say "Atlas Shrugged is the greatest book ever written" I don't take it as the speaker's literal belief, because almost nobody means such a statement in that way.
It would probably be useful to compile a list of times in the past that coming out the other side of the bull's horn was worth it. If you're trying to find a common thread.
What immediately comes to mind as an obvious example is Newtonian physics. There was a period in the history of science where it looked like we had figured out almost everything worth knowing in this field. That turned out not to be the case in a big way. There were clues that there might be a deeper, more general theory in the inconsistencies in observational data at the time and it seems like this would be a good place to start.
What fields are there that seem like they are mostly figured out but with a few nagging inconsistencies? Continuing the physics theme, the standard model does a heck of a job but there is still dark matter/energy and gravity to figure out. It's clear from the number of top level minds devoted to studying these things that people already think this horn is worth bulldozing through though. It's not that people don't think it's worth digging, it's just really hard.
Maybe there are fields that are similarly saturated theory wise but have inconsistencies that aren't being thought about a lot?
What evidence is there that compulsory voting wouldn't just add noise to the selection process?
There are about two dozen countries that use compulsory voting. Looking at the ten countries that actually enforce it we find that it in fact doesn't just add noise to the selection process. We find that they in fact don't have a selection process particularly dominated by noise.
If we look at actual compulsory votes, and find that practically nobody votes for some candidates while others get a lot of votes despite the addition of the reluctant voters then that which was added can't have been just noise. In this example only 1.4% of all (primary) votes went to the "Family First" candidate. Even assuming zero of the voluntary voters voted for "Family First" somehow the additional "noise" still knew to favor the other three candidates and mostly avoid Family First. Additional votes made by constituents and which systematically favor one candidate far above another aren't called "noise", they are just called "votes".
What evidence is there that compulsory voting wouldn't just add noise to the selection process?
I happen to know Mortimer Q. Snodgrass, who lives at 128 Ordinary Ln. is well informed about politics and economics but chooses not to vote because he is personally better off staying at home to play catch with his son. Obliging him to vote introduces information into the process that is not noise.
By the above I mean to reject the framing whereby "it would just add noise" is set up as priveliged hypothesis that significant 'evidence' must be expended just to escape from.
If the new voters actually "just add noise" it would mean every single one of them had no preference or information about what they are voting on and all choose to vote using a noise source. Even if we weaken the hypothesis to "the amount of noisy votes added relative to signal votes would do more harm than good to the preference extraction process" it is still an overwhelmingly unlikely proposition.
The basic voting systems just aren't especially vulnerable to noise, they are vulnerable to corrupted or biased input (some of which they cause themselves). If even 1 out of 20 of the new votes represents information about population preferences while the other 19 are 'noise' the system still ends up better informed. Noise just isn't the potential downside here, the respective biases held by the people who would have voted vs those that wouldn't and how much you endorse the groups and biases in question. It is at least plausible for someone to declare that the preferences of the demographic that would vote voluntarily are more important for some intrinsic or instrumental reason than the preferences of the demographic that must be compelled.
Thank you for the detailed response. Lots of interesting ideas that I'll definitely read through in detail later on when I have more time.
I do think I meant something different by the term 'noise' than the way you read it but I'm not convinced it will matter in the end. You seem to be using noise to cover the case where voters make their decisions arbitrarily because they lack preferences. I was trying to make the point that the average forced voter might be little better than random at actually identifying the candidate that would lead to the greatest fulfillment of his preferences.
People often say that voting is irrational, because the probability of affecting the outcome is so small. But the outcome itself is extremely large when you consider its impact on other people.
Which, of course, should encourage all sane states to have compulsory voting for the same reason that paying taxes is compulsory rather than voluntary. (Or, rather, to make attendance at the polling booth compulsory such that a decision to abstain is permitted but not more convenient.)
What evidence is there that compulsory voting wouldn't just add noise to the selection process? This seems like the obvious outcome to me.
Took it.
My browser was unable to copy/past most of the links which led to less than initially intended participation on my part. For instance, I took the big 5 quiz because the address was easy to glance at and type into another tab but didn't take other surveys/tests in the bonus question sections because i didn't feel like tabbing back and forth to get the web address correct.
Rough Idea: Send brilliant, destitute kids to great schools from an early age in exchange for a percentage of their lifetime earnings.
Have you read The Unincorporated Man for some fictional evidence of how this idea turns out? ;-)
I haven't but I'll check it out, I'm about to go on a 20 hour plane trip.
If that's true, then there could be no use in finding a place because you would then follow the quote's advice and never return again!
Per Bohr's advice we can identify this as a meaningless 'profound truth' by reversing it:
If you are lost, then you are at a place no one has found before... What's the use of being in unmapped territory?
I took the quote as a call to explore. Don't just be satisfied with learning things other people have figured out, try to creatively venture into the unknown yourself.
If you are not lost, then you're at a place someone has already found... What's the use of being in mapped territory?
- Junot Diaz
A different perspective on a phrase our community holds near and dear
Others are involuntarily celibate; perhaps they can't find or attract suitable mates. This problem can often be solved by learning and practicing social skills.
What ought one do when the problem is not solved by social skills?
I seem to have a tendency to feel extremely inadequate about any skill at which i am not noticeably better than everyone I know about. Due to this quirk of my psychology, I spent a significant portion of my life believing myself to have horrendous social skills. And, for a long time, I attributed my social and sexual failings to that perceived lack of social skill, despite a gradually growing mass of evidence in favor of my social skills being adequate.
(relatively) Recent evidence and experience has now finished falsifying the premise that my social skills are not viable.
Unfortunately, having (a lack of) social skills ruled out as a cause of the problem leaves me, seemingly, without any more low-hanging fruit to pursue. And when even the woman who literally wrote the sequence on self-awareness tells me that she doesn't know why her interest in dating me suddenly evaporated, I begin to... worry, and that feeling of helplessness starts showing up.
(And this doesn't even touch the non-trivial problem of meeting suitable mates, which is obviously a prerequisite to attracting anyone.)
Retracted. I had written some brutally honest advice but realized after reading a bit more that you know a lot of people on here in person, so I'll PM instead.
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This isn't a how-to, but I thought you might find these articles cute:
Linky- Story of how parents of toddler boys keep their kids from playing rought with the author's toddler girl, because "you have to be gentle with girls".
Linky- Dad tired all video game heroes are male. Reprograms Zelda to make Link a female for little daughter.
Linky- Video- A What Would You Do? episode, where you see how people in a costume store react when a little boy (actor) wants to dress as a princess, and a little girl (actress) wants to dress as Spiderman for Halloween
I can see the point the author is trying to make in the story about having to be gentle with girls, but I think I'd be conflicted about it if I had a son. Later in life there are severe social and legal consequences for a man that is too rough with women and I'd hate to set my kid up for failure.
I realize there is a difference between "playing rough" and abuse but there can be grey areas at the border. There are many situations were I would physically subdue a man (both playful and serious) but not a woman, partly for fear of causing harm but mainly because of the social blowback and potential for getting arrested.
I might be overly sensitive to this line of thinking because I have a military background, but I think teaching a son that he should behave as if girls and boys are the same physically is sub-optimal (in terms of setting him up for success and long-term hapiness).