Wow I didn't realize this was happening! I'm super busy tomorrow but will try to come for at least some of it. When was the last meetup?
Is this definitely on? I'm thinking of coming from Norwich (where I suspect I'm the only one).
I'm in Cambridge and I can make that time! I imagine there's a few LWers around.
EDIT: Damn, I can't actually do that weekend, sorry. I'm pretty much free any other time.
What about Friday 11th?
Being curious about the number of LW readers in Cambridge, I propose we meet next Saturday afternoon, 2pm February 12th at The Anchor (12 Silver Street).
Feel free to suggest a better time or place if this doesn't suit you.
You seem to have transitioned to another argument here... please clarify what this has to do with omega and its ability to predict your actions.
The new argument is about whether there might be inherently unpredictable things. If not, then your picking a box based on the outcome of a "quantum event" shouldn't make Omega any less physically plausible,
From wikipedia
"In the formalism of quantum mechanics, the state of a system at a given time is described by a complex wave function (sometimes referred to as orbitals in the case of atomic electrons), and more generally, elements of a complex vector space.[9] This abstract mathematical object allows for the calculation of probabilities of outcomes of concrete experiments."
This is the best formalism we have for predicting things at this scale and it only spits out probabilities. I would be surprised if something did a lot better!
As I understand it, probabilities are observed because there are observers in two different amplitude blobs of configuration space (to use the language of the quantum physics sequence) but "the one we are in" appears to be random to us. And mathematically I think quantum mechanics is the same under this view in which there is no "inherent, physical" randomness (so it would still be the best formalism we have for predicting things).
Could you say what "physical randomness" could be if we don't allow reference to quantum mechanics? (i.e. is that the only example? and more to the point, does the notion make any sense?)
The definition of omega as something that can predict your actions leads it to have some weird powers. You could pick a box based on the outcome of a quantum event with a 50% chance, then omega would have to vanish in a puff of physical implausibility.
What's wrong with Omega predicting a "quantum event"? "50% chance" is not an objective statement, and it may well be that Omega can predict quantum events. (If not, can you explain why not, or refer me to an explanation?)
I'd love to say I'd find some way of picking randomly just to piss Omega off, but I'd probably just one-box it. A million bucks is a lot of money.
Would that make you a supersuperintelligence? Since I presume by "picking randomly" you mean randomly to Omega, in other words Omega cannot find and process enough information to predict you well.
Otherwise what does "picking randomly" mean?
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