All of ad2's Comments + Replies

ad200

I don't have to tell you that it's easier to get a Singularity that goes horribly wrong than one that goes just right

Don't the acceleration-of-history arguments suggest that there will be another singularity, a century or so after the next one? And another one shortly after that, etc?

What are the chances that they will all go exactly right for us?

ad200

Years ago at the Singularity Institute, the Board was entertaining a proposal to expand somewhat. I wasn't sure our funding was able to support the expansion, so I insisted that - if we started running out of money - we decide in advance who got fired and what got shut down, in what order. Even over the electronic aether, you could hear the uncomfortable silence. …

People are really, really reluctant to plan in advance for the abyss. But what good reason is there not to? How can you be worse off from knowing in advance what you'll do in the worse cases?

I do... (read more)

ad210

It's somehow depressing that in this story, a former rapist dirtbag saves the world.

Why is that depressing?

And if the good and decent officer who pressed that button had needed to walk up to a man, a woman, a child, and slit their throats one at a time, he would have broken long before he killed seventy thousand people.

I have my doubts about that. If he could do it seven times, he could do it seventy thousand times. Since when was it harder for a killer to kill again?

2AndHisHorse
I think that the relationship between (number of deaths) and (amount of despair/psychological impact) isn't linear, and differs depending on the psychological proximity that one has to the act of killing. For a very abstract example, let's say that killing in person has a square-root relationship with psychological impact; killing 10,000 people is about ten times as psyche-breaking as killing 100 people. Even that is probably inexact for small numbers; the multiplicative difference between killing 1 person vs 100 people, and killing 100 people vs 10,000 people, might well be different. Killing but button, however, may have a logarithmic relationship: it's only three times as bad to kill 1,000,000 people as it is to kill 1,000. Additionally, consider why such a good and decent officer might kill: because in the moment, he is convinced of the righteousness of his cause. He begins full of fervor, but as the act continues, he may grow weary, or the hormones which contributed to his enthusiasm may wear off, as the killing stretches long into the night. He may question if killing this next person is strictly necessary, or if maybe, just maybe, he could stop at 69,000, or let that child live while killing everyone after him. I don't doubt that there are killers for whom killing again is easier - pyschopaths, certainly, and relatively psychologically normal people who are convinced of the inhumanity of their enemies - but we are talking about a good and decent officers, killing civillians for the greater good. There are some similarities, but there are also a great many differences.
5TruthOrWar
When the man would think that 7 deaths is worth it but perhaps 70 000 is too many
ad200

Sure, I would turn this down if it were simply offered as a gift. But I really, really, cannot see preferring the death of fifteen billion people over it.

How many humans are there not on Huygens?

ad200

The Superhappies could have transformed humanity and the Babyeaters without changing themselves or their way of life in the slightest, and no one would have been able to stop them.

Why would I care about whether the Superhappies change themselves to appreciate literature or beauty? What I want is for them to not change me.

All their "fair-mindedness" does is guarantee that I will be changed again, also against my will, the next time they encounter strangers.

2complexmeme
The next time, it presumably wouldn't be against your will, due to the first set of changes.
ad270

"Um," Akon said. He was trying not to smile. "I'm trying to visualize what sort of disaster could have been caused by too much nonconsensual sex -"

Akon obviously does not regard the idea of nonconsensual sex with much distaste. So why would he want it banned?

I think the important question is: Why does he not regard the idea of nonconsensual sex with much distaste?

(I can't help but think of The Forever War, where military custom and law require consent to any request for sex.)

ad210

Aleksei, children are rarely enthusiastic about the idea of leaving their parents. Why would they trust the Super Happy People?

"And you should understand, humankind, that when a child anywhere suffers pain and calls for it to stop, then we will answer that call if it requires sixty-five thousand five hundred and thirty-six ships."

How would they hear it? They did not even know about humanity until just now, much less hear the calls for help of any human child. All they have to do is not go looking for miserable children, and they will not find any... (read more)

ad210

There was never a Manhattan moment when a computing advantage temporarily gave one country a supreme military advantage, like the US and its atomic bombs for that brief instant at the end of WW2.

Did atomic bombs give the US "a supreme military advantage" at the end of WW2?

If Japan had got the bomb in late 1945 instead of the US, could it have conquered the world? Or Panama, if it were the sole nuclear power in 1945?

If not, then did possession of the bomb give "a supreme military advantage"?

1Luke_A_Somers
If Japan had had the bomb when we did, and we were where they were in terms of research, and in the numbers we did, they could have easily done a number on our navy, thus converting certain imminent overwhelming defeat into... uncertain, non-immediate overwhelming defeat. Simply on account of our wiping out everything on mainland Japan - we already had them in checkmate. If they'd gotten this in 1943, though, things would have been... rather different. It's difficult to say what they couldn't have done. Panama... well, they'd certainly have a local supreme military advantage. No one at all would go after them. There were probably too few Panamanians with too little delivery capability to take over the whole world. The very limitations of these analogies amplify Eliezer's points - swallowing your supply chain makes you care less about the annihilation of your industrial infrastructure. Gray goo doesn't need occupation troops, and it can deliver itself.
ad2110

How many wielders of the Ultimate Power have been killed by humble microbes?

How many more microbes have been killed by the power wielders?

ad200

the straightforward and unavoidable prediction of quantum mechanics.

Newtonian mechanics makes many straightforward and unavoidable predictions which do not happen to be true. I assume that no one has ever tested this prediction, or you would have given the test results to back up your assertion.

Just a thought.