My guess as to why this got down-voted:
1) This reads like a manifesto, and not an argument. It reads like an aspirational poster, and not a plan. It feels like marketing, and not communication.
2) The style vaguely feels like something ChatGPT might right. Brightly polished, safe and stale.
3) This post doesn't have any clear connection to making people less-wrong or reducing x-risks.
3) wouldn't have been much of an issue if not for 1 and 2. And 1 is an issue because, for the most part, LW has an aversion to "PR". 2 is an issue because ChatGPT is now a thing so styles of writing which are like ChatGPT's are viewed as likely to have been written by ChatGPT. This is an issue because texts written by ChatGPT often have little thought put into them, are unlikely to contain much that's novel, and frequently have errors.
What kind of post could you have written which would have been better received? I'll give some examples.
1) A concrete proposal for UBI that you thought was under-valued
2) An argument addressing some problems people have with UBI (e.g. who pays for all of it? After UBI is implemented and society reaches an equilibrium, won't rents-seeking systems just suck up all the UBI money leaving people no better off than before?).
3) Or a post which was explicit about wanting to get people interested in UBI, and asked for feedback on potential draft messages.
In general, if you had informed people of something you genuinely believe, or told them about something you have tried and found useful, or asked sincere questions, then I think you'd have got a better reception.
That makes sense. If you had to re-do the whole process from scratch, what would you do differently this time?
Then I cold emailed supervisors for around two years until a research group at a university was willing to spare me some time to teach me about a field and have me help out.
Did you email supervisors in the areas you were publishing in? How often did you email them? Why'd it take so long for them to accept free high-skilled labour?
The track you're on is pretty illegible to me. Not saying your assertion is true/false. But I am saying I don't understand what you're talking about, and don't think you've provided much evidence to change my views. And I'm a bit confused as to the purpose of your post.
conditional on me being on the right track, any research that I tell basically anyone about will immediately be used to get ready to do the thing
Why? I don't understand.
If I squint, I can see where they're coming from. People often say that wars are foolish, and both sides would be better off if they didn't fight. And this is standardly called "naive" by those engaging in realpolitik. Sadly, for any particular war, there's a significant chance they're right. Even aside from human stupidity, game theory is not so kind as to allow for peace unending. But the China-America AI race is not like that. The Chinese don't want to race. They've shown no interest in being part of a race. It's just American hawks on a loud, Quixotic quest masking the silence.
If I were to continue the story, it'd show Simplicio asking Galactico not to play Chicken and Galacitco replying "race? What race?". Then Sophistico crashes into Galactico and Simplicio. Everyone dies, The End.
It's a beautiful website. I'm sad to see you go. I'm excited to see you write more.
I think some international AI governance proposals have some sort of "kum ba yah, we'll all just get along" flavor/tone to them, or some sort of "we should do this because it's best for the world as a whole" vibe. This isn't even Dem-coded so much as it is naive-coded, especially in DC circles.
This inspired me to write a silly dialogue.
Simplicio enters. An engine rumbles like the thunder of the gods, as Sophistico focuses on ensuring his MAGMA-O1 racecar will go as fast as possible.
Simplicio: "You shouldn't play Chicken."
Sophistico: "Why not?"
Simplicio: "Because you're both worse off?"
Sophistico, chortling, pats Simplicio's shoulder
Sophistico: "Oh dear, sweet, naive Simplicio! Don't you know that no one cares about what's 'better for everyone?' It's every man out for himself! Really, if you were in charge, Simplicio, you'd be drowned like a bag of mewling kittens."
Simplicio: "Are you serious? You're really telling me that you'd prefer to play a game where you and Galactico hurtle towards each other on tonnes of iron, desperately hoping the other will turn first?"
Sophistico: "Oh Simplicio, don't you understand? If it were up to me, I wouldn't be playing this game. But if I back out or turn first, Galactico gets to call me a Chicken, and say his brain is much larger than mine. Think of the harm that would do to the United Sophist Association! "
Simplicio: "Or you could die when you both ram your cars into each other! Think of the harm that would do to you! Think of how Galactico is in the same position as you! "
Sophistico shakes his head sadly.
Sophistico: "Ah, I see! You must believe steering is a very hard problem. But don't you understand that this is simply a matter of engineering? No matter how close Galactico and I get to the brink, we'll have time to turn before we crash! Sure, there's some minute danger that we might make a mistake in the razor-thin slice between utter safety and certain doom. But the probability of harm is small enough that it doesn't change the calculus."
Simplicio: "You're not getting it. Your race against each other will shift the dynamics of when you'll turn. Each moment in time, you'll be incentivized to go just a little further until there's few enough worlds that that razor-thin slice ain't so thin any more. And your steering won't save from that. It can't. "
Sophistico: "What an argument! There's no way our steering won't be good enough. Look, I can turn away from Galactico's car right now, can't I? And I hardly think we'd push things till so late. We'd be able to turn in time. And moreover, we've never crashed before, so why should this time be any different?"
Simplico: "You've doubled the horsepower of your car and literally tied a rock to the pedal! You're not going to be able to stop in time!"
Sophistico: "Well, of course I have to go faster than last time! USA must be first, you know?"
Simplicio: "OK, you know what? Fine. I'll go talk to Galactico. I'm sure he'll agree not to call you chicken."
Sophistico: "That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Galactico's ruthless and will do anything to beat me."
Simplicio leaves as Acceleratio arrives with a barrel of jetfuel for the scramjet engine he hooked up to Simplicio's O-1.
community norms which require basically everyone to be familiar with statistics and economics
I disagree. At best, community norms require everyone to in principle be able to follow along with some statistical/economic argument.
That is a better fit with my experience of LW discussions. And I am not, in fact, familiar with statistics or economics to the extent I am with e.g. classical mechanics or pre-DL machine learning. (This is funny for many reasons, especially because statistical mechanics is one of my favourite subjects in physics.) But it remains the case that what I know of economics could fill perhaps a single chapter in a textbook. I could do somewhat better with statistics, but asking me to calculate ANOVA scores or check if a test in a paper is appropriate for the theories at hand is a fool's errand.