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Some argue that AI progress will speed up as AIs help with their own development. Some argue that we will hit a wall. Will progress be smooth, or punctuated by sudden leaps? Using the length of tasks that AIs can complete—their time horizon—as a measure of their general capability, this...
This article aggregates virtually everything currently known about AI scheming, then builds toward an informed forecast. How to read this article: After reading the introduction to understand the article’s scope and structure, I recommend moving directly to the Overview and Forecast sections, and read the background sections as needed for...
Currently, there is minimal regulation regarding the development and use of highly powerful AI systems, like AGI or superintelligence. But even if there were stronger rules or international agreements, could they be enforced? Can you prevent AI companies from conducting secret research and training runs? Can you stop terrorists from...
Are current AIs “aligned”? When interacting with today’s most powerful AIs, they don’t appear very misaligned—they usually refuse to provide dangerous information, use a polite tone, and are generally very helpful (unless intentionally jailbroken or put in contrived setups). Some see this as a hopeful sign: maybe alignment isn’t that...
This post investigates emerging biorisk capabilities and when AI systems may cross important risk thresholds. It lays the groundwork for a broader risk forecast (currently in progress) on the annual likelihood of AI-enabled biological catastrophes. For now, the analysis focuses on general-purpose AIs such as large language models (LLMs). A...
My AI forecasting work aims to improve our understanding of the future so we can prepare for it and influence it in positive directions. Yet one problem remains: how do you turn foresight into action? I’m not sure, but I have some thoughts about learning the required skills. Say you...