Furthermore, the tries must be independent of each other, otherwise the reasoning breaks down completely. If I draw cards from a deck, each one has (a priori) 1/52 chance of being the ace of spades, yet if I draw all 52 I will draw the ace of spades 100% of the time. This is because successive failures increase the posterior probability of drawing a success.
This but unironically.
Another important one: Height/Altitude is authority. Your boss is "above" you, the king, president or CEO is "at the top", you "climb the corporate ladder"
For a significant fee, of course
Yes to both, easy, but that's because I can afford to risk $100. A lot of people can't nowadays. "plus rejecting the first bet even if your total wealth was somewhat different" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.
Honestly man, as a lowercase-i incel this failed utopia doesn't sound very failed to me...
What do you mean?
If this happened I would devote my life to the cause of starting a global thermonuclear war
Well there are all sorts of horrible things a slightly misaligned AI might do to you.
In general, if such an AI cares about your survival and not your consent to continue surviving, you no longer have any way out of whatever happens next. This is not an out there idea, as many people have values like this and even more people have values that might be like this if slightly misaligned.
An AI concerned only with your survival may decide to lobotomize you and keep you in a tank forever.
An AI concerned with the idea of punishment may decide to keep you alive so that it can punish you for real or perceived crimes. Given the number of people who support disproportionate retribution for certain types of crimes close to their heart, and the number of people who have been convinced (mostly by religion) that certain crimes (such as being a nonbeliever/the wrong kind of believer) deserve eternal punishment, I feel confident in saying that there are some truly horrifying scenarios here from AIs adjacent to human values.
An AI concerned with freedom for any class of people that does not include you (such as the upper class), may decide to keep you alive as a plaything for whatever whims those it cares about have.
I mean, you can also look at the kind of "EM society" that Robin Hanson thinks will happen, where everybody is uploaded and stern competition forces everyone to be maximally economically productive all the time. He seems to think it's a good thing, actually.
There are other concerns, like suffering subroutines and spreading of wild animal suffering across the cosmos, that are also quite likely in an AI takeoff scenario, and also quite awful, though they won't personally effect any currently living humans.
So, travelling 1Tm with the railway you have a 63% chance of dying according to the math in the post