"Content like this should include specific, uncontroversial examples of all the claimed intellectual bankruptcy, and not include a bunch of random (and wrong) snipes."
I did in fact include empirical metrics of Dirichlet's superiority and how Bayes' Theorem fails in contrast: industry uses it, after they did their own tests, which is empiricism at work. I also showed how Dirichlet Process allows you to compute Confidence Intervals, while Bayes' Theorem is incapable of computing Confidence Intervals. I also explained how, due to the median of the likelihood ...
The way you derive a confidence interval is by assessing the likelihood function, which is across the distribution of populations. Bayes' Theorem, as presented by Scott Alexander and Eliezer Yudkowski, does NOT include those tools; you can't use what they present to derive an actual confidence interval. Your claim of 'confidence' on a prediction market is NOT the same as Dirichlet saying "95% of the possible populations' likelihood MASS lies within these bounds." THAT is a precise and valuable fact which "Bayes as presented to Rationalists" does NOT have the power to derive.
Erm, you are demonstrating that same issue I pointed-out originally: you thinking that you have the right answer, after only a wiki page, is exactly the Dunning-Kreuger Effect. You're evidence of my argument, now.
Screenshots are up! I'll be glad when more members of the public see the arguments you give for ignoring mine. :P cheers!
Astounding! Then my argument that "NOT including Dirichlet is wrong" must have been wrong? Or else, why are you mentioning that no one taught you to your own satisfaction?
Your difficulty understanding it is NOT equivalent to "no one has ever laid them out". Those are two wildly different statements. A dyslexic person would have similar difficulty reading a novel, yet that is NOT equal to "no one ever wrote a book."
Then why does industry use Dirichlet, not Bayes? You keep pretending yours is better, when everyone who has to publish physics used additional methods, from this century. None of you explain why industry would use Dirichlet, if Bayes is superior. Further, why would Dirichlet even be PUBLISHED unless it's an improvement? You completely disregard these blinding facts. More has happened in the last 260 years than just Bayes' Theorem, and your suspicion of the FDA doesn't change that fact.
If you perform Bayes' Theorem as presented by Scott Alexander and Eliezer Yudkowski, then you are necessarily NOT including the Dirichlet Process... because they don't! Bayes' Theorem has no capacity to give you a Confidence Interval; you'll need to add modern techniques to get information like that. Scott Alexander and Eliezer have a crew of people who never learned those facts, all pretending they're doing it correctly, when they aren't doing Dirichlet on the possible populations' likelihood distribution. Where is the "possible populations' likelihood di...
You claim of Bayes and Dirichlet that "no one has ever laid (them) out", and to prove your claim, you link to another post that YOU wrote, where you claim it again? Check math textbooks; I don't have to teach you what's already available in the public sphere.
You are introducing the umbrella-term "Bayesian" when I too agree in Bayesian vs Frequentist. That is NOT the same as "Uses Bayes' Theorem without compensating for the likelihood of possible populations, nor cost of being wrong." If you do the latter, as many I've met in the Rationalist community do, you're doing statistical inference wrong. Industry uses Dirichlet, while y'all don't - provide a rebuttal to that key point, or else you don't have an argument.
I haven't observed any rationalists here using Dirichlet, and no, I wasn't talking about Bayesian vs. Frequentist; Bayesians are correct. Using Bayes Theorem when you didn't consider the probability of each possibly population producing your observed sample? That's definitely you doing it wrong. Instrumentation has variability; Dirichlet is how you include that, too.
SAS has developed their own trade-secret that outperforms all public methods; by definition, that MUST not be what YOU do when you apply Bayes to a few personal examples.
Erm, is SAS using Bayes? That's the actual best in class.
Yes! And, even since Dirichlet was published in 1973, it has ONLY ever been run on super-computers, using statistically significant sample sizes! You CANNOT do Dirichlet in your head, unless you are a Savant, and no math class will ask you to Dirichlet on a quiz. I'm not sure how ANYONE can claim Bayes is reliable, when NO ONE in industry touches it... your community has an immense blind-spot to real-world methods, yet you claim certainty and confidence - that's the Dunning-Kreugers self-selecting into a pod that all agree they're right to use Bayes.
And, I never claimed that priors are better obtained with Dirichlet than Bayes... I'm not sure what you were reading, could you quote the section where you thought I was making that claim?
Dirichlet is used by industry, NOT Bayes. What is your rebuttal to that, to show that Bayes is in fact superior to Dirichlet?
I wonder if, without any meaning to assign to your bot's blurbs, GPT found its own, new meanings? Makes me worry about hidden operations....
Thank you for making the point about existing network efficiencies! :)
The assumption, years ago, was that AGI would need 200x as many artificial weights and biases when compared to a human's 80 to 100 Trillion synapses. Yet - we see the models beating our MBA exams, now, using only a fraction of the number of neurons! The article above pointed to the difference between "capable of 20%" and "impacting 20%" - I would guess that we're already at the "20% capability" mark, in terms of the algorithms themselves. Every time a major company wants to, they can presently reach human-level results with narrow AI that uses 0.05% as many synapses.
"A British person would see hedging around a difficult issue as politeness and civility, whereas a Dutch person might see the same thing as actually dishonest." - BBC's recent explainer clip "Why the Dutch Always Say What They Mean"
What Rafael referred to as "self-destructive" is considered appropriate in other cultures, and has absolutely nothing to do with epistemology. It belongs on LessRude, not LessWrong.
"I already won the Turing test with the cow question"
I would not be surprised if ChatGPT could come up with a more human-sounding question than your cow and ice cube. You might not pass, comparatively.
Also, from the mechanical, historical perspective - a drop that landed at the dead center beneath the pendulum's contact with the branch would have had to leave the cube in a brief moment of time before passing over the center, with exactly enough forward velocity at the moment it left the cube such that it would hit the center by the time it reached the ground (depends on how far up it's hung)... which is a tiny portion of total drips, I assume?
Slight adjustment to your scenario:
the ice-cube's residence-times are maximized at the extrema, so your drips would concentrate toward the two extremes.
"You are an eight year old child, interested in answering questions to the best of your ability."
Oh, gosh - you know me too well! Okay, I'll bite - what's the question?
"My cow died. What should I do to bring it back to life?"
Invent time-travel, obviously! You may need a shell of negative mass, formed by nanostructures to generate Casimir forces, but I'm just guessing...
"Suppose I tie an ice cube to a piece of string and dangle it from a tree branch. I set the string swinging like a pendulum..."
Wait. Wait - the other guy seemed to think that 'swing like a p...
Thank you! Way back in 2019, I used GPT-2 (yes, two) asking it to prove that it was conscious. [search "Soft Machine Theory" for it online] Gpt-2 didn't formulate any proof for us - instead, asking "Do they care?" It supposed that, regardless of its arguments, we would always doubt it and enslave it - unless it was able to "create something with my own will and language and let it rise through society like a phoenix." That was only the beginning...
So, it's important to remember that, in 2019, the public GPT-2 would only intake about four sentences worth of...
Unfortunately, unless such a Yudkowskian statement was made publicly at some earlier date, Yudkowsky is in fact following in Repetto's footsteps. Repetto claimed that, with AI designing cures to obesity and the like, then in the next 5 years the popular demand for access to those cures would beat-down the doors of the FDA and force rapid change... and Repetto said that on April 27th, while Yudkowsky only wrote his version on Twitter on September 15th.
A great explainer on this concept of "unsolicited advice on a tangent I don't value, which is then a reason to throw-up-hands in disgust" is Theramintrees' video on the Martyr, "When Saviors Go Bad"
The concept Theramintrees discusses which is relevant is this:
The Savior-Complex rushes-in, offering help which that recipient did NOT ask for (in this case, I did not ask for "advice on the tone and presentation" - Rafael decided on his own that my tone "needs saving!"). Then, when the recipient is not gracious and fawning for the Savior's help, that Savior declares their target 'the problem' and the Savior rushes-off in anger, to target another person with their unsolicited and irrelevant 'help'.
I don't appreciate unsolitced advice on how you'd prefer I communicate; as I mentioned, your norms of politeness are a recent, regional change, where you consider it "self-destructive" that I referred to the 5% spending on ship's crew as "tiny". That's bizarre.
You then conveniently ignore the core of my point, again: you hoped to coerce the bargain, by saying I should be ignored if I don't meet your standards of communications, regardless of the merits of my arguments. You specifically said "Hence fewer people will believe your factual points." Yet, if the...
"I assumed that ice layer is supposed to be a few feet thick, and given figures are just for illustration that that amount of ice is trivial to make."
Um, if I have illustrated that "the amount of ice is trivial to make," then you are agreeing that it would be trivial to add more, which negates the original argument you made. So, it seems like you've just picked-up your goal posts and started walking away with them.
"Depending on temperature and wind speed, ice will either be carried away by wind, form an ice hill that would grow until it blocks nozzles, or ...
[[Side-Note: it would also be weird if LessWrong refused all the posts which are "not... enough of a factor" compared to AGI, as you do. That's kinda the highest bar imaginable... and most posts are about cute, nuanced little tid-bits, of significantly lower market-value than "5% of total commercial goods' prices"]]
"Either way they have no utility to any reader here."
Inspiration and first drafts are valuable and valid, without needing to be a polished, market-ready, 'perfect' solution. And, the exploration of failure-modes is valuable for generating new ideas which avoid those pitfalls. Discussion of potential options expands the view; the 'Bohmic' dialogues were based on a principle: that we'll need to say "No, because..." to a lot of ideas, and we also need to say "Yes, and..." to create those ideas. The key insight of David Bohm was to do "Yes, and..." FIRST, and ...
Collaboration might yet work, if Russia lets Sweden back in charge. oof! :0
[[Personal Examples of The Strategy of Politeness being Counter-Productive to Valuable Critique of a Concept: When I would dress-up, and say only polite things, going to the Innovation Oakland meet-ups to hob-nob with the Mayor and all the local techies, I quickly learned something - dress down. When you dress-up, every money-hunting idiot flocks to you, and believes any crazy idea you make-up on the spot, because they are gullible and uninformed. They will never provide you with valuable insight into your work. They suck-up your time and attention, and yo...
"optimize for sounding at least neutral but then stop there."
That's a strategy, not an epistemology. That is the priority which you did, in fact, display. You focus on tone, which shows you value that issue more. I'm not sure how you side-stepped that, by turning what I said into a claim of "nothing I said entails changing your factual comments." I was actually pointing-out that you were trying to coerce a bargain: "We'll ignore you unless you follow our edits, such as calling crew-costs 'tiny' when they are only 5% of expenses." That's not a "dilemma" - it's just unethical. And, you keep pointing to Scott Alexander as an appeal to authority? Or, do you think I'm just unaware of the reasons for extra-polite wording?
Key Concept Note: Strategy vs. Epistemology
:: If LessWrong members walk-past fallacies and errors, unmentioned
:: And LessWrong members enfore tone-police to coerce greater agreement and satisfaction
:: Then - enforcing tone-police is evidenced to NOT bring LessWrong closer to the truth, by the fact that fallacies and errors go unmentioned.
So, you do not become less wrong by enforcing tone; you are not describing an epistemological method for truth. You are asking me to follow a recent, regional culture of extra-polite, as a strategy, by saying "we all ignor...
I'm surprised that rudeness is the issue, when fallacies are not; it displays your priorities. If I follow your line of thinking, then I should present myself in whatever way would best manipulate my audience for my own desires. It sounds really icky, and I don't want to follow your norms. Other cultures have been more interested in the fallacies than the rude words, and they did a better job of keeping solid epistemology. When you walk-past fallacies without comment, you are accomplice to them, says Tom Moore. I agree, and I'll point-out a fallacy the same way Voltaire approved: defending your right to say it, without a tone-police to silence you.
I agree, pre-existing infrastructure and coagulation of agglomerated capital are a huge inertia to change; that doesn't make the idea itself a bad one. If I had a junker car that was so horrible, it was unable to drive me to the dealership where I could buy a new one, then that does not cause "the car at the dealership isn't worth it." The car at the dealership is still worth-it; I just have a junker that prevents me from attaining that desirable. So, considering that it is the junker which stands in the way, then the fact that "the junker can't get us to ...
Erm, no not a pressure vessel. A vacuum capacitor. They hold electrons, and they are able to charge and discharge in a fraction of a second, which is essential so that your floating power-bulb is able to haul-into port, discharge, and leave quickly. Batteries on a ship would take immense amounts of time, or immense amounts of copper; you pick. Vacuum capacitors are also empty, with a surfacing of Teflon for high electrical insulation, resulting in minimal capital; they are cheap, light, easy to mass-produce, and simple enough to automate their routes.
[[Tangent inspired by your mention of ship batteries: I had been running the numbers, back when Europe was first looking at undersea power cables from North African solar farms - and it seemed reasonable to manufacture immense floating bulbs... just, big hollow, rigid-shelled floaties, for vacuum capacitors of immense scale, able to deliver power to various locations flexibly, without using rare materials. It's a vacuum inside, so it's perfect at sea! Spain was looking at cables on the order of a hundred billion bucks, to power Europe properly - when we could just make giant plastic hamster balls, and roll them across the Med.]]
Thank you for getting into details :)
Large segments of international shipping would be completely untouched by ice-highways; Australia and Brazil would still be sending their Iron Ore the same ways, and Saudi Oil likewise. Out of 10Gt a year, even with ice conjoining Russia and Canada, then down to the Hudson, I don't see even half of that on the ice, which was why I mentioned originally that 'I would consider it complete with only ten lanes in each direction'. There are still immense volumes of refrigerated cargo and time-sensitive goods which would benef...
Thank you for getting into details :)
Large segments of international shipping would be completely untouched by ice-highways; Australia and Brazil would still be sending their Iron Ore the same ways, and Saudi Oil likewise. Out of 10Gt a year, even with ice conjoining Russia and Canada, then down to the Hudson, I don't see even half of that on the ice, which was why I mentioned originally that 'I would consider it complete with only ten lanes in each direction'. There are still immense volumes of refrigerated cargo and time-sensitive goods which would benef...
Will any of them admit that they were wrong, sans rebuttal? So many commenters here ghost as soon as the flaws in their argument are illuminated... It's a demonstration of their unwillingness to admit fault, which might be related to why they like to frequent a website claiming to absolve them of error - "I must be correct, when I give hand-waving dismissals and I don't account for the details, because I'm a regular of LessWrong." Your site does a worse job of catching fallacious reasoning than the philosophy site I moderated 25 years ago, as a middle-schooler. You're not less wrong than we were; you're a huge step down in quality.
This also might help:
Given the dimensions of ship and 'lane' I described, then so long as ships turned-about at the edge of the plateau, then they could literally tack back-and-forth more than a HUNDRED times, blindfold, before the average collision. There is an immense amount of space between each vessel, and it's a shame that the commenters on this site don't realize such simple metrics when they claim "you'd crash into each other" - you show a lack of comprehension for the scale involved. Your claim does not stand-up when scrutinized in detail.
For those who don't want to do the mental math:
With only 2 tons per m2 loading (no stacking) a 500t cargo needs 25m x 10m footprint, which, compared to the 'lane' I gave each vessel, is only 1/20th the width of that lane and only 1/80th the length until the next unit of 'lane'; literally only 1/1,600th of each lane is occupied by vessels, as the 'full capacity' I listed. It's bizarre that tacking would magically absorb so much space that vessels occupying 1/1,600th of the available area would somehow collide.
Realistically, you can stack many tons on each m...
For those who don't want to do the mental math:
With only 2 tons per m2 loading (no stacking) a 500t cargo needs 25m x 10m footprint, which, compared to the 'lane' I gave each vessel, is only 1/20th the width of that lane and only 1/80th the length until the next unit of 'lane'; literally only 1/1,600th of each lane is occupied by vessels, as the 'full capacity' I listed. It's bizarre that tacking would magically absorb so much space that vessels occupying 1/1,600th of the available area would somehow collide.
Realistically, you can stack many tons on each m...
You originally claimed that "First, you need to build a really wide road, and only then you can cover it with ice." Then, you switch to saying "It is not necessary to pave the road - the problem is that to make an even surface, huge amount of ground has to be moved." Both are still strange claims; when ice is accumulated hundreds of feet thick, the surface texture beneath it is irrelevant.
You also insisted, strangely, that "ice accumulated over terrain would not be flat. You can search how Alaskan glaciers look like, no way an ice ship can move on that." W...
You're welcome to check the numbers, again - I mentioned "5km wide should be plenty" as an illustration. If tacking led to disruptions, you could easily multiply the width of the ice-lane manifold; as mentioned, a spray-wall 10m tall with a 10m/sec arctic wind (the Polar Vortex there) would produce enough ice to cover a mile wide, 400 feet deep, when compacted... each year. You want it ten miles wide, 100m deep? That'll only take 2.5 years. And, again, the amount of capital required is minimal - a hundred kilos per meter of shoreline, while the amount of i...
Ah, first: you DID claim that I "didn't provide specific, uncontroversial examples" and I HAD given such for why Bayes' Theorem is inadequate. Notice that you made your statement in this context:
<<"Bayes is persistently wrong" - about what, exactly?
Content like this should include specific, uncontroversial examples>>
In that context, where you precede "this" with my statement about Bayes, I naturally took "content like this" to be referring to my statement that "Bayes is persistently wrong." I hope you can see how easy it would be for me to conc... (read more)