All of AspiringKnitter's Comments + Replies

...Doesn't everyone already believe #4?

4RobinZ
I'm pretty sure that there are both naturalists and supernaturalists who believe that it is possible to explain the existence of the universe. Such persons would include, I believe, supporters of the Tegmark mathematical universe hypothesis.

I guess it could work either way. I mean, Nagini could be obeying Voldemort by virtue of being a well-trained pet, the Basilisk for... whatever reasons the Basilisk does anything for, and Malfoy's summoned snake might listen to Harry because it's inclined to grant random non-difficult favors when asked. None of those seem any less probable than snakes winking, talking, having theory of mind, speaking in ridiculous hisses or knowing Spanish. In fact, none of the snakes in this series seem like snakes at all, so I'm not sure what my priors are regarding them.

Parseltongue speakers don't just talk with snakes, they command them.

Do they really? The boa constrictor seemed pretty interested in its own stuff, Nagini is a pet and pets in general are obedient, Harry didn't command the Basilisk... so is this actually canon? Admittedly, maybe I just missed something, but I don't remember this.

4gwern
Harry didn't give the boa any commands, and both Nagini and the Basilisk are being commanded by someone else (specifically, a Voldemort). In Chamber of Secrets, Malfoy summons a snake, Harry talks to it and tells it to not attack anyone, and IIRC, it does not. (The original suggestion is still improbable though - Patronuses wouldn't be the ne plus ultra of secure communications if they could be suborned like that, especially in a war against a famous Parseltongue.)

Wow. That's really cool, thank you. Upvoted you, jeremysalwen and Nornagest. :)

Could you also explain why the HPMoR universe isn't Turing computable? The time-travel involved seems simple enough to me.

8thomblake
Not a complete answer, but here's commentary from a ffdn review of Chapter 14:

If this weren't Less Wrong, I'd just slink away now and pretend I never saw this, but:

I don't understand this comment, but it sounds important. Where can I go and what can I read that will cause me to understand statements like this in the future?

When speaking about sensory inputs, it makes sense to say that different species (even different individuals) have different ranges, so one can percieve something and other can't.

With computation it is known that sufficiently strong programming languages are in some sense equal. For example, you could speak about relative advantages of Basic, C/C++, Java, Lisp, Pascal, Python, etc., but in each of these languages you can write a simulator of the remaining ones. This means that if an algorithm can be implemented in one of these languages, it can be implemen... (read more)

4Nornagest
A computational system is Turing complete if certain features of its operation can reproduce those of a Turing machine, which is a sort of bare-bones abstracted model of the low-level process of computation. This is important because you can, in principle, simulate the active parts of any Turing complete system in any other Turing complete system (though doing so will be inefficient in a lot of cases); in other words, if you've got enough time and memory, you can calculate anything calculable with any system meeting a fairly minimal set of requirements. Thanks to this result, we know that there's a deep symmetry between different flavors of computation that might not otherwise be obvious. There are some caveats, though: in particular, the idealized version of a Turing machine assumes infinite memory. Now, to answer your actual question, the branch of mathematics that this comes from is called computability theory, and it's related to the study of mathematical logic and formal languages. The textbook I got most of my understanding of it from is Hopcroft, Motwani, and Ullman's Introduction to Automata Theory, Languages, and Computation, although it might be worth looking through the "Best Textbooks on Every Subject" thread to see if there's a consensus on another.
3jeremysalwen
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_completeness
4nohatmaker
http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/bfo/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/

this should mean that humans raised in cultural and social vacuums ought to be disproportionately talented at everything

And yet, they're actually worse at many cognitive tasks. Language, especially, is pretty hard for them to pick up after a certain point.

What if the problem isn't that it's too cognitively taxing, but that, applied in the sloppy way most people apply their heuristics, it could lead to irrational choices or selfish behavior?

1scav
People already make irrational choices. I don't think teaching them one way to mitigate that could make things worse. What's the opposite of status quo bias? I might have some of that, whatever it is :)

Does it have kuru? I'm only open to eating healthy human flesh in this scenario.

Also, if it poofs into existence from nowhere, is it creating matter out of nothing? It's creating something that still has usable energy in it, out of nothing? That could not only end world hunger and veganism, you might be able to use the newly-created corpses for fuel in some kind of power plant. Sure, you might have to go back to steam power to make it work, and sure, human bodies might not be the optimal fuel source, but if you're getting them from nowhere, that solves all... (read more)

1Armok_GoB
Someone need to make an SCP based of this.

Less Wrong: Rationality, polyamory, cannibalism.

Doesn't that rely on everyone eating candy? One person who doesn't eat candy and therefore isn't invested in the outcome could wreck that.

Also: theoretically, a student could win hundreds of pieces of candy? I'm sure the parents were very happy about that.

0handoflixue
Anyone can ruin it deliberately, true - it works best with a cooperative group, not a competitive one. Modifying it for a competitive group would definitely remove it from the real of "useful introductory ideas", but would probably still be a useful exercise for more advanced classes. Candy is also concrete and engaging - most people don't respond as enthusiastically to raffle tickets or $0.25. As part of a larger set of challenges, using play money with some sort of modest exchange of play money -> small prizes at the end of the session might work.
0Nornagest
Doesn't need to be candy, necessarily. Money's the first thing that comes to mind, but if that's prohibitively costly to maintain while keeping the prizes attractive, you could play with probabilities: build a set of diverse prizes of approximately equal value, say, and instead of money or candy distribute tickets to a raffle where the winner'd be able to choose one prize. That might have some funny consequences in this experiment, though, depending on the quirks of how people think about probabilities.

Hmm. That could be a good point. If the world were ending, I probably wouldn't waste time on a sit-down meal.

How about if it's your last day in the country and you'll be fleeing to escape religious persecution tomorrow, taking nothing with you?

Couldn't the problems others have brought up regarding this scenario be fixed by specifying that this is your last meal ever before the world ends tomorrow morning before breakfast? Then neither information nor money is valuable anymore.

0dlthomas
I think I'd make a decision other than "try that new restaurant on the outskirts of town" for the evening before the world ends. If I don't know the world is going to end, then my decision now mightn't be optimal in light of that additional information (maybe that still tests something interesting, but it isn't quite the same thing).

I think you should go with Vaniver's idea. (Edit: Vaniver now has multiple ideas up. I mean the one about giving orders to malicious idiots. Completely off-topic: that's also a useful way to explain tasks to people with Asperger's Syndrome or other neurological oddities that cause executive dysfunction.)

I also think this reminds me of something (fiction) writers talk about a lot: they've hit on the way people won't sympathize with "a billion people died/starved/were tortured/experienced dust specks in their eyes" but will sympathize with "Al... (read more)

3dbaupp
(Summary: Orienteering with the navigation and movement separate. This exercise requires both people to be specific to not get lost, and it can be extended by adding in a race aspect (trying to be specific under pressure!).) The last paragraph made me think of "MoboGoGlobo", which is an orienteering event where there are two participants: one doing the navigation who guides the other via phone. (I'm not sure how familiar with orienteering many people are, so I'll give a quick intro) When participating in an orienteering event one normally has to visit a series of markers in a predefined order as quickly as possible (or not, if one isn't feeling like racing, entirely up to the participant). One has a detailed map (although, importantly, it rarely has street names) that indicates the location of these and the order to visit them in, e.g. the two maps here (the pink (or purple) triangle is the start location and the numbered circles are the markers). When competing, one uses all sorts of clues to make sure one is going in the right direction and one isn't lost (and to become unlost), like most obviously the shape of nearby buildings, the topography (e.g. a steep hill), a fork in a track or stream, or more subtly things, like a bend in a track or the position of a power line on the next hill. (Conventionally, one also has a compass, which one uses to orient oneself correctly.) In this exercise you need two people: one with the map ("navigator"), the other actually on the territory that corresponds to the map ("runner", this doesn't imply that one needs to run though): it requires the navigator to describe exactly where to go ("go past the building" < "go to the left of the building that has a round canopy outside"), and also for the runner to describe what they see so that the navigator can keep track ("There is a line of trees" < "A line of trees starts just to my left and goes directly away"). There are multiple levels of specificity too: the best teams will have
1Vaniver
I typically use a permalink to refer to comments that aren't upthread. (Thanks for the recommendation, by the way!)
4erratio
Yeah, seconding the "blind obstacle course" exercise, although you don't usually need to make it more difficult by not letting the person giving instructions watch (mostly because it's difficult just to walk in a straight line without visual cues, let alone execute precise turns). It's a common leadership/working as a group game and people usually need to watch other attempts go wrong 3 or 4 times before hitting a useful level of specificity.
5Oscar_Cunningham
Upvoted for that last paragraph.

Don't they usually say it about situations that they could choose to change, to people who don't have the choice?

7BlazeOrangeDeer
Exactly. In my experience the people who say "life isn't fair" are the main reason that it still isn't.
5TimS
I agree, it's usually used as an excuse not to try to change things.

Lesson learned: actually read the citations.

I never even had a chance; it was March when I read it. :/ Guess I'll remove my downvote.

No, keep it down voted! The time stamp from where I'm sitting is April 2nd, and this is on the front page. Sowing random confusion as an "April 1st prank" is just senseless if you're not at least going to make sure the post is marked as such, and I honestly don't think such is appropriate here to begin with.

I agree, this is a bad idea. I didn't figure out the answer when it was just for fun; my performance will probably only get worse under stress (and there's not much farther to fall from "uh... well, maybe it has to do with destroying Dementors, I give up").

I know this shows no confidence in my own rationality, or that of the other readers, but can we please just have a normal story?

Well, that depends on whether people's decisions to drink Comed-Tea are controlled by the Tea's knowledge (??) of when they're going to see something ridiculous and whether it can affect anything else. It also depends on how powerful the mind-control is.

If it just sends a "drink Comed-Tea" impulse whenever something funny's going to happen, the precommitment would probably beat it. If it controls your mind, either you'd only be able to decide that if you were fated for twelve consecutive days of surprises with breakfast, or you'd just forget abou... (read more)

Since we're doing this by chapter now, I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this, but I'm not sure where to put it otherwise.

I was rereading chapter 26, Noticing Confusion, and-- maybe I'm not the first person to notice this-- I was thinking of a certain other indestructible diary.

Surely Quirrelmort wouldn't give Harry that diary, right? But if the book is indestructible, and made of paper, there is magic involved. He does say Bacon was a wizard, but also that his experiments never got very far without a wand. Making books indestructible does not seem like not getting very far.

7see
I thought it was fairly obviously that diary, and thus an effort by Quirrelmort to take over/destroy Harry the way Ginny was (almost) in canon. Harry has apparently avoided the trap entirely because he is under the logically reasonable impression that he needs to learn Latin to read Roger Bacon's diary. I'm pretty sure other people have reached the same conclusion in previous threads. We then see a second effort to approximately the same end with the Dementor brought on school grounds (at Quirrelmort's instigation) with Harry's wand "accidentally" being left near the cage.

Well, there you have it, then. They can hide behind their magical fences.

Fictional ninjas are handicapped by the fact that they attack one at a time. Fictional pirates, meanwhile, in addition to not suffering from scurvy like you'd expect, have improbably awesome fencing powers.

-1TheOtherDave
Well, how else can they dispose of their stolen loot? Or keep their dogs in their yards?

No, but my local library has two autobiographies. Both seemed interesting to me, though.

Maybe you could look for internet support groups or forums or something. Stuff people write about themselves is probably more useful than stuff doctors write about them if you're looking to learn about their thought processes.

0Will_Newsome
Good suggestions, thanks much.

Dumb used to mean mute. Personally, I think that's going a little overboard with the political correctness, though. (And this from someone who doesn't use retarded as an insult, or even crazy.)

2Will_Newsome
(Basically unrelated, but: Do you or does anyone reading this know of anywhere online to read lots of case studies of schizophrenics, ideally without selection effects for "interesting" cases?)

I can't think of anything in MoR that contradicts it, but in canon, when a wizard tries to pay a muggle, the muggle later comments about someone trying to pay with a bizarre kind of coin. IIRC, it's in Goblet of Fire, and it's the muggle who runs the campground where they're having the World Cup. He got memory-charmed afterward.

So he definitely saw some kind of wizard money.

2billybobfred
Page 77 in my copy of GoF. So, yes, Muggles can see Wizard money, at least in canon.

I agree; Lucius knows Hermione is innocent (not that she didn't do it) and the clue about the Wizengamot fizzled out.

However, I think Dumbledore's preferred outcomes here seem to be the smallest disturbances of the status quo. (Fawkes needs to give him a few more thwacks.) Hermione going to Azkaban disturbs things less than Harry going into debt disturbs things less than Harry destroying Azkaban. So at least there does seem to be a consistent utility function here. (The other, highly improbable, explanation for that preference ranking is that he approves o... (read more)

Note that if you voted in the poll, you should also downvote this post. Currently, there are more upvotes in the poll than there are downvotes on that post.

Edit: Whoa, that changed in the time it took me to post!

Sorry, the reason for the stereotype is the fact that fanfiction is findable only on unmoderated internet archives where anyone can post. If you had to look on the internet for all your original fiction, you'd have the same problem. Also, it's in some ways harder to use someone else's voice and be bound by characters that maybe have traits you're scared to write about than to be able to write in your own voice and avoid certain kinds of characters.

But when you compare cherry-picked original fiction weeded through by editors until you get to read only a fra... (read more)

1Anubhav
Kindle Store Or so I heard, at least.

Personally, I thought the problem through and did, literally, draw a map of the room with its people and creatures, before coming on here, and yet I will own up to having not come up with anything at all and not even figured out which of the solutions proposed by others seemed most plausible.

4drnickbone
Couple of things: 1. The clue about seeing the Wizengamot as PCs rather than wallpaper rather fizzled out. They still look a lot like wallpaper, and only Lucius and Dumbledore look like PCs. Though Dumbledore has developed a sudden unexpected malware infection and Lucius is just weird. 2. What the hell is up with Dumbledore's preference system?? He prefers Hermione (a probable innocent) going to Azkaban above Harry going into debt, and prefers that in turn over Harry destroying Azkaban and every last Dementor. What is Fawkes doing sitting on his shoulder? Hitting him with a wing... No. Should be pecking his eyes out. 3. And then, what is up with Lucius? After going on so strong about why he would never trade his son's blood debt for money (yep, taboo trade off) he then... trades the blood debt for money! Huh? OK, there's the phoney blood-debt to House Potter in the mix somewhere, but he knows it's phoney, and didn't have to accept it. If he were serious about his son's life as a sacred value, then he wouldn't. The only theory I have is that Lucius knows full well now that Hermione didn't do it. (Harry handed him the idiot ball, he quickly got the point, and updated, though of course couldn't admit to that in front of everyone). So there is no longer a taboo in swapping one phoney debt for another; it's now all about mundane values like political advantage, personal prejudice (sticking it to the Mudblood), trying to embarrass Dumbledore and Boy-Who-Lived with impossible proposals, the off-chance of more gold to add to his pile; all tempered with confusion about whether the Dark Lord is really reborn, what he really wants out of the Mudblood, and why isn't he being let in on the new master-plan?? Truly a vile little worm.

Looks like the LessWrong readership called it. Both plans, even. Congratulations, people who guessed quicker than I did.

I notice that Harry's view of the Wizengamot as a faceless entity doesn't actually seem to have changed this chapter. So much for that hint.

Also, it would be nice to know which members of the Wizengamot now think Harry is Voldemort and why they think he decided to pretend to die or whatever they think happened.

0Percent_Carbon
A faceless entity is much more than wallpaper. There was change.

I just thought of something else, too, that could explain why it took so long if the duel were short.

Suppose Hermione won relatively quickly, at around 12:05. H&C obliviates and memory-charms her, taking as much time as the duel he makes her remember, which could be several minutes. Then he has to do the same to Draco. At this point, it's around 12:15 or so, and the memory of casting the BCC would make it more like 12:16. Then H&C casts the charm himself and realizes he doesn't recall what time it is exactly. Decides to go with 12:30 because oversh... (read more)

I couldn't swear to it, but I thought the map showed Krum in GoF.

1glumph
It's not clear. When Crouch is confessing everything under Veritaserum, he says that he saw his father entering the grounds on the Map, and so headed into the grounds to intercept him. He says something along the lines of "Then Potter came, and Krum", and it's ambiguous as to whether he sees them appear on the Map or if he sees them him person.

Even if the duel lasted only a few minutes and everything was over by, say, 12:10 or 12:20, that would mean Quirrel only waited six hours and 13-23 minutes, depending. Could even be deliberate-- an attempt to throw suspicion off himself by making the timing not quite perfect.

On the other hand, if I take "he's only three minutes late" as evidence that he did it, and "he's more than three minutes late" as evidence that he did it, I'm violating a principle of rationality.

I think he had something to do with it anyway.

0Vladimir_Nesov
If by "not quite perfect" you mean "suspiciously close after the point that made observation with a Time Turner impossible", then yes, it's not quite perfect.
1AspiringKnitter
I just thought of something else, too, that could explain why it took so long if the duel were short. Suppose Hermione won relatively quickly, at around 12:05. H&C obliviates and memory-charms her, taking as much time as the duel he makes her remember, which could be several minutes. Then he has to do the same to Draco. At this point, it's around 12:15 or so, and the memory of casting the BCC would make it more like 12:16. Then H&C casts the charm himself and realizes he doesn't recall what time it is exactly. Decides to go with 12:30 because overshooting is way better than undershooting here and he thinks he'll be safe with 12:30, especially if he doesn't have much time before he goes zombie or something and can't just check the clock. (Anyone notice that Quirrellmort seems to be living Life: The Interesting Parts Version?)
wirov130

On the other hand, if I take "he's only three minutes late" as evidence that he did it, and "he's more than three minutes late" as evidence that he did it, I'm violating a principle of rationality.

If you take "he's just a few minutes late" as strong evidence that he did it, "he's quite a while late" as weak evidence that he did it and "he's early" as very strong evidence that he did not do it, this violation disappears.

If Eliezer Yudkowsky, the author, is lauding this statement, I think we can rule this out as Harry's solution.

As previously stated, Harry is not a perfect rationalist.

He would risk it the same way he risked not actually being found by a teacher.

Sure, that would be the smarter thing to do, but then it wouldn't come as a surprise to the audience. This way it gives us and Harry a puzzle.

But it can be. Harry knows what the altered testimony will be because he just decided on how to alter it. He comments on the oddity, then goes back in time and causes it. Just like when he asked for a teacher's help when Draco was torturing him.

Causality is screwy in this universe, isn't it?

0DanArmak
It's possible. But he'd be risking someone flatly contradicting him the moment he made his statement about the testimony - "no, you didn't listen correctly, she didn't really say that". And afterwards, of course, there's no point for him to go back in time because he's received evidence that she did not in fact testify as he wished. Your scheme would work a lot better if he'd just listened to her testimony. Then he would know what he had to go back in time to cause, regardless of the way he used her testimony now. (grin)

Interesting. I hadn't thought about that. Now that I think about it, you're right; most fictional magic does act on things that are fundamental concepts in people's minds, rather than on things that are actually fundamental.

That said, I still say it all sounds like magic. I couldn't tell you exactly what algorithm my brain uses to come up with "sounds like magic", though.

0Desrtopa
I didn't just have fictional magic in mind; concepts like sympathetic magic are widespread, maybe even universal in human culture. Humans seem to have strong innate intuitions about the working of magic.

Well... you know, this actually wasn't my idea and I'm not sure it would actually work, but playing devil's advocate here...

...anybody notice that Hermione's testimony contradicted itself? No; if they had, it would already have mattered.

...anybody notice that Hermione knew something she shouldn't at her age? No; she reads too much.

...anybody notice that Hermione knew something she shouldn't about Important Player In This Game? For instance, being able to mention what Voldemort looked like. It could be a subtle reference that Harry would have to point out b... (read more)

0DanArmak
Harry didn't listen, and Harry is coming up with a suggestion next week. (Or in a few seconds, depending on your POV.) So this can't be relevant to that solution. So unless Harry's solution will fail, this altered-testimony thing should not exist.

Can't use it to change what's already happened. Hermione has already given her testimony, and Harry didn't even listen so he wouldn't be in a good position to subtly modify it. And the Veritaserum on her is already wearing off, precluding further testimony.

In canon, they thought they heard Buckbeak die, too. It could already be that Hermione gave altered testimony and Harry isn't aware of it because he didn't hear what she said because he wasn't listening. In fact, that makes sense.

0DanArmak
But since that altered testimony hasn't swayed the vote in her favor, why alter it in the first place?

Could be both, e.g., it starts as the latter and the person becomes more aware and it becomes the former.

Obscurity may also have something to do with it, but if I'm remembering right Asperger's was comparably obscure until at least the late Nineties.

Actually, what's now called Asperger's was initially part of what Kanner called autistic psychopathy. However, some people with severe problems and/or mental retardation also had the same symptoms, so the diagnosis was expanded to cover them. Then it narrowed to include entirely those with very severe disabilities, such that autistics/Aspies with the ability to "pass" (act normal or act like something... (read more)

1gwern
So the timing coincided with the explosion of Silicon Valley; combine with their genuine presence there to some degree, and hey presto... I'd also suggest that Asperger's is inherently flattering to some degree: it inherently implies you're smart, and capable in some field. ('Yes, I can't understand people but that's not my fault, I have Asperger's, which also means I'm smarter than you.') Schizoid on the other hand, besides sounding like 'schizophrenia' (zero positive connotations), looks bad even when you read the entire Wikipedia entry: almost like a synonym for sociopath/psychopath. (Funny thing, BBC's new Sherlock series has Sherlock as a diagnosed sociopath, so even that diagnosis may yet be redeemed.) It's not clear why anyone would want to claim a self-diagnosis of that, since little about it is 'egosyntonic', as the psychiatrists say.
1juliawise
And it probably won't be in the next DSM.

That seems implausible. Most people probably think they wouldn't shock someone to death if ordered to.

At least if it isn't Azkaban, and it isn't death outright, it's probably not as bad as either, though. So if he can discredit Azkaban as a place to put criminals, that would improve things. Minimally.

Does it really decline with age, or did older people form their values in a different culture? It's possible people's values are stable over time but people born a long time ago were more likely to form different values from the ones formed by people born more recently. Has anyone tried to distinguish between these possibilities?

0NoSignalNoNoise
Pardon my sloppy phrasing. I did not intend to imply causality one way or another, merely the correlation. I edited the original comment to reflect my intent.
0hairyfigment
Robert Altemeyer reports a correlation between a likely-related attitude (support for 'traditional' authority) and -- not age, but having children. Continued education has a stronger apparent effect in the opposite direction. But I don't think he directly addresses this question.
2gwern
http://lesswrong.com/lw/aw6/global_warming_is_a_better_test_of_irrationality/61ff

Huh. I just reread that scene in Deathly Hallows after you mentioned it and you're absolutely right.

I was sure I remembered an Unbreakable Vow in that scene. I wonder what else I could be misremembering... O.O Scary thought.

Not very. Maybe he only has shrines to his fallen allies. If there are memorials of other fallen enemies/neutrals, then it would be evidence, but I'm not sure how strong it would be...

Plus, if she was an innocent who died because of an accident that was his fault, a memorial would be more likely than if he had nothing to do with it, so...

1Jello_Raptor
On the other hand, if it is there (a highly unlikely situation) it would be immense evidence that it wasn't Dumbledore, or at the very least that it was an accident of some sort. But this is mostly useless speculation given what we know.
0[anonymous]
Are you perhaps thinking of the Unbreakable Vow Snape swore to protect Draco in Half-Blood Prince?
6glumph
Snape didn't make an Unbreakable Vow to protect Harry. He makes one with Narcissa in the sixth book, promising to help Draco in his plot to kill Dumbledore. But Snape's protection of Harry in canon is always grounded in his love for Lily.
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