All of Avi's Comments + Replies

Avi70

Common sense implies that they must be at least partially effective at reducing transmission of various diseases, in the same way that wearing gloves does (i.e. a barrier is created which partially blocks movement of potentially harmful particles).

5cistrane
Common sense also implies that masks will inevitably get dirty and will harbor pathogenic bacteria in a warm moist place contaminated with food and in close proximity to child's face. Covid aside, this seems like a net negative from common sense perspective.
Avi220

The fact that the people involved apparently find it uniquely difficult to talk about is a pretty good indication that Leverage != CFAR/MIRI in terms of cultishness/harms etc.

Avi80

I'm sure it'll be fine :-)

I'm not involved in this in any way, but from the comments I've seen of yours in these threads you've shown great honesty and openness with everything.

Avi350

FYI - Geoff will be talking about the history of Leverage and related topics on Twitch tomorrow (Saturday, October 23rd 2021) starting at 10am PT (USA West Coast Time). Apparently Anna Salamon will be joining the discussion as well.

Geoff's Tweet

Text from the Tweet (for those who don't use Twitter):

"Hey folks — I'm going live on Twitch, starting this Saturday. Join me, 10am-1pm PT:
twitch.tv/geoffanders
This first stream will be on the topic of the history of my research institute, Leverage Research, and the Rationality community, with @AnnaWSalamon as a guest."

Unreal140

Unfortunately for me, there is apparently no video recording available on Twitch for this stream? (There are two short clips, but not the full broadcast.) 

If anyone has a link to it, if you could include it here, that'd be great. ! 

Yep. I hope this isn’t bad to do, but I am doing it.

Avi270

FYI - Geoff will be talking about the history of Leverage and related topics on Twitch tomorrow (Saturday, October 23rd 2021) starting at 10am PT (USA West Coast Time). Apparently Anna Salamon will be joining the discussion as well.

Geoff's Tweet

Text from the Tweet (for those who don't use Twitter):

"Hey folks — I'm going live on Twitch, starting this Saturday. Join me, 10am-1pm PT:
twitch.tv/geoffanders
This first stream will be on the topic of the history of my research institute, Leverage Research, and the Rationality community, with @AnnaWSalamon as a guest."

Avi120

I have to say, your extreme/rigid opposition to any form of whatever you're currently defining as 'illegal drugs' reminds me of religious people who have similarly rigid and uncompromising views on things.

Ironically, this also seems to me to be antithetical to rationality...

Avi250

I agree with the intent of your comment mingyuan, but perhaps the reason for the asymmetry in activity on this post is simply due to the fact that there are an order of magnitude (or several orders of magnitude?) more people with some/any experience and interaction with CFAR/MIRI (especially CFAR) compared to Leverage?

I think some of it has got to be that it's somehow easier to talk about CFAR/MIRI, rather than a sheer number of people thing. I think Leverage is somehow unusually hard to talk about, such that maybe we should figure out how to be extraordinarily kind/compassionate/gentle to anyone attempting it, or something.

Avi50

I would agree with you there.

I wouldn't agree that describing an experience as 'meaningful' is antithetical to rationality, though.

3James_Miller
Finding meaning in life felt extremely important to me, until I had a kid and then I stopped thinking about it.
Avi100

In my personal and anecdotal experience, for the people who have a positive experience with psychedelics it really is more your 'a' option.

Psychedelics are less about 'thinking random thoughts that seem meaningful' and more about what you describe there - reflecting on their actual life and perspectives with a fresh/clear/different perspective.

Avi50

How does someone thinking that they had a meaningful experience make them less rational?

Look, all experiences take place in the mind, in a very real way that's not just a clever conversational trick.

So whatever your most meaningful and spiritually significant moment, it's going to be "in your head."

But on a set of very reasonable priors, we would expect your most meaningful and spiritually significant head-moment to be correlated with and causally linked to some kind of unusual thing happening outside your head.  An activity, an interaction with other people, a novel observation.

Sometimes, a therapist says a few words, and a person has a... (read more)

6James_Miller
Being spiritual and mystical seems antithetical to rationality.
Avi180

Most of the wildly successful people that exist in the western world today display current, or displayed prior, 'willingness to violate drug laws'.

Avi90

Can someone please clarify what is meant in this conext by 'Vassar's group', or the term 'Vassarites' used by others?

My intution previously was that Michael Vassar had no formal 'group' or insitution of any kind, and it was just more like 'a cluster of friends who hung out together a lot', but this comment makes it seem like something more official.

While "Vassar's group" is informal, it's more than just a cluster of friends; it's a social scene with lots of shared concepts, terminology, and outlook (although of course not every member holds every view and members sometimes disagree about the concepts, etc etc). In this way, the structure is similar to social scenes like "the AI safety community" or "wokeness" or "the startup scene" that coordinate in part on the basis of shared ideology even in the absence of institutional coordination, albeit much smaller. There is no formal institution governing th... (read more)

4Benquo
Michael and I are sometimes-housemates and I've never seen or heard of any formal "Vassarite" group or institution, though he's an important connector in the local social graph, such that I met several good friends through him.
Avi80

In refernce to point 1, how would you define 'illegal drugs' (as defined by which country/state)?

My understanding is that if you applied that rule (people that have used or currently use 'illegal drugs' are not 'good enough' to be in the community) it would rule out at least ~90% of the humans I've ever interacted with.

4James_Miller
I'm a legal realist so  I would not count marijuana in California even though its consumption is illegal under federal law because a judge is not going to punish you for consuming it.  I wrote "use" not "used".
Avi30

Correct - but they are low-risk for those factors (addiction and/or overdose).

Avi30

Indeed.

Travelling by boat/ship, and transporting things by boat/ship, is 'Lindy', as are bicycles.

Avi30

I haven't seen/heard anything particularly impressive from him either, but perhaps his 'best work' just isn't written down anywhere?

Avi90

I agree, and think it's important to 'stay grounded' in the 'normal world' if you're involved in any sort of intense organization or endeavor.

You've made some great suggestions.

I would also suggest that having a spouse who preferably isn't too involved, or involved at all, and maybe even some kids, is another commonality among people who find it easier to avoid going too far down these rabbit holes. Also, having a family is positive in countless other ways, and what I consider part of the 'good life' for most people.

Avi*120

Psilocybin-based psychedelics are indeed considered low-risk both in terms of addiction and overdose. This chart sums things up nicely, and is a good thing to 'pin on your mental fridge':

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a5/Drug_danger_and_dependence.svg/1920px-Drug_danger_and_dependence.svg.png

You want to stay as close as possible to the bottom left corner of that graph!

[anonymous]170

This graph shows death and addiction potential but it doesn't say anything about sanity 

Avi40

Haha - you've clearly thought about the mechanism more than I have!!

Very interesting (and entertaining) - thanks.

Answer by Avi60

Somehow (don't ask me how...) humanity developed a much stronger shared identity and the dominant 'affiliation' most people have is to all of humanity.

I think it's obvious this would change just about everything else...

Hopefully we actually get there in reality one day.

6chaosmage
Oh I know how! When Einstein figured out spacetime, we rethought not only physics, but also other faulty conclusions from our false assumption that reality is three-dimensional. Everything is moving through four dimensions, including us, and that means we're four-dimensional too, although our consciousness is limited to three-dimensional moments. We started to see ourselves as growing through time like four-dimensional snakes. Or branches, really, since we've all branched off our four-dimensional others when we were born. And by simple recursion we realized that in four dimensions, we all are branched off common ancestors, way back to the origin of life, and all other life-forms are merely seperate-seeming branches of the only life on Earth, the evolutionary tree of life. All of our bodies and minds are extensions of the same thing, just like our fingers are extensions of the same hand. Lots of religious and mystically inclined people got very excited about this and wanted to believe this is something like proof of God, or all life is conscious, or there's some grand plan, but we insisted on plain physics: nothing about causality has changed, life isn't smart or intentional or conscious, but life is us, and that merely means our self-image was as mistaken as our image of physics. We had to stop identifying with consciousness, which made a lot of problems with consciousness more tractable, and started to identify with the single process that produces all our seperate consciousnesses. That necessitated a lot of re-thinking of ethics, because consciousness wasn't so fundamental anymore and suffering of conscious beings started to look more incidental. We decided that our minds were created by us/life to serve its/our purpose, and life's/our purpose, while not conscious, looked from revealed preferences like survival, dissemination and diversification. So that became our yardstick for ethical behavior: good is what helps life to survive, spread, diversity and, somew
Avi30

Something that may be interesting to pair with this post: Ribbonfarm: Against Waldenponding

Avi*30

Some ideas are just naturally high on rederivability.

Avi50

It's all about the basics. If you can get the basics right, you're highly likely to win life (within the constraints of your own personal limits).

Eat simple healthy food. Move your body substantially sometimes. Sleep. Maintain a close-knit group of family and friends.

If you do these things you will already be ahead of 99% of humanity, including many people who spend far more effort (and money) optimising some particular aspect of their lives (e.g. expensive workout gear or 'superfoods').

Avi*40

The best investments in knowledge are mental models that can be applied across domains (some of which were mentioned in the post) and unchanging/permanent/durable knowledge like that in the STEM fields. This provides both leverage (from the cross-disciplinary latticework of mental models) and allows compounding to work as your knowledge compounds over the years.

Avi50

That means learning the broadest applicable skills you’d apply throughout your life first.

Another example: when learning a new language focus on the list of 100 or 1000 or whatever most commonly used words - this enables you to get started understanding the gist of basic conversations quickly, which then enables a positive feedback loop of compounding as you speak more in the new language, gain confidence, pick up new words in those conversations etc.

Extending this - focus learning (especially in early life) on permanent, unchanging knowledge like math,... (read more)

2neilkakkar
Yes, that's a very good example! That's exactly how I learned French - and I learned much quicker than, say, the usual class curriculum starting with grammar. Turns out, if my goal was to go to France and speak to people there in French, the grammar wasn't necessary to get the point across (in most cases). I was hinting at this, but didn't say it. Thanks for making it explicit.
Avi70

Apparently it's a third option - most don't actually exist!

https://www.mashable.com/2017/11/17/china-binhai-library

gjm130

Oh, that's a bit disappointing. I'll put that in the "just for aesthetics" bucket, then. To me, that makes this feel less like "rationalist art", though I'm not sure how fair that is.

Avi*30

On the positive side - there is a sizeable cluster of alternative schools in and around Berlin - including forest schools, free/democratic schools, Montessori/Waldorf etc.

Answer by Avi*10

One idea that comes to mind is that the surface-level information sources (e.g. news articles) are often *'correct' *on a basic level, but really more like 'yes, but it's complicated' on a deeper level.

The best illustration of this is if you've ever seen a surface-level description of something you know about at a deep level, and you realise how wrong it is, or at least how much nuance it's missing. The next step is to realise that it's like that with everything - i.e. all the things you're not an expert on.

Avi10

This source gives the conviction rate a range of 83.3% to 97.7% depending on the level of court and the type of charge.

Answer by Avi40

While the current events portal on Wikipedia has already been mentioned, I prefer the much more concise annual summary pages which I check monthly. The page gets updated quickly with any major events that happen in the world.