All of banana's Comments + Replies

banana00

Heritability is not a fundamental quantity, and it often does not correspond to what is expected.

I found that a useful example for understanding this is consideration of the number of arms that a person has. This seems like it would be 100% heritable. You have two arms because your parents have two arms. This would be true if the group being analysed includes not only people but also other animals such as worms, which have zero arms because their parents have zero arms.

However, normally in these discussions only humans are considered and thus genetic diffe... (read more)

banana10

I am not sure that I am following what you are saying here.

To use the map / territory distinction: My understanding is that belief refers to the contents of someone's map, while values are properties that they want the territory to have or maximise.

banana130

For me the benefit of talking out loud would be more a matter of focus. I have an inner conversation anyway and so it would be just saying the same words as I am already saying on the inside (which might slow me down, but not an issue when the problem is difficult). The real point is that if I say the words then I am only going to say the words related to the problem. The words related to the distraction will not be said out loud. Therefore, making an effort to speak out loud means that there will be more focus on the problem because allowing my focus to w... (read more)

banana-20

"The Evolution of Political Thought" by C. Northcote Parkinson (1958) points out that "political progress" actually happens in cycles and that the appearance of "progress" is just the result of people having short time horizons and not being able to see enough of history to see the whole cycle. Also not realising what is happening in the third world, where many democracies have collapsed into dictatorships.

Governing bodies can be either one person (monarch or dictator), a small group (oligarchy or aristocracy) or by a majority... (read more)

6Jack
This argument seems plausible on the surface but it doesn't explain the recent and dramatic global shift toward government by democracy. And I struggle to think of a single example of this cycle completing as described.
0Alejandro1
It is amusing that this description how democracy leads to tyranny is virtually identical to that of Plato.
gwern390

Parkinson's schematic is ridiculously, well, schematic. And from this perspective in time, the usual ideologue's move of taking a concern of his time (anti-liberalism and big government) and claiming it applies over all time.

Democracies die because of too much welfare? Ridiculous! Is that how the Athenian democracy died, voting too much pay for jurors? Is that how Weimar Germany became Nazi Germany, because the burgomasters were drawing too much disability? Is that how the nascent Japanese Meiji democracy was snuffed into militarism with the Emperor's aid?... (read more)

banana00

I found this bizarre too. So I looked up a paper by the same authors who wrote the book in the "aging stops" hyperlink to investigate.

By aging they mean the increase in mortality rate as a person gets older. Ie an 80 year old is more likely to die this year than a 60 year old.

The theory is that there is a given high rate of mortality that would prevail for the whole of life if natural selection did not exist. However, natural selection does exist and so for the early part of an organism's life the mortality rate is lower than it would be otherwis... (read more)

banana30

Your check consequentialism sounds a lot like risk management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives (ISO 31 000). The risk management process involves indentifying risks, analysing how significant they are, and then treating the big ones so that they don't prevent you from attaining your objective. This is fairly straightforward to do. The difficult part is building a risk management culture where the risks are considered before making a decison, embarking on a project, etc. Just identifying the risks is often the big deal. Once you are aware that a risk exists you will probably deal with it. Sorry that I have not given you an activity, but perhaps I have given you a useful keyword to help your search.

banana20

I automatically assumed that John and Lisa were boyfriend/girlfriend. Comparing it with me and my wife - of course she should be the one to take the antidote. Although I am not sure that I am intelligent enough to have thought of shoving it down her throat without this prompting (or her disagreeing) though.

On the other hand with some one else, who has the same "right to live" as me (my interpretation of your "similar" - ie same sex, same number of kids etc) a coin toss still has problems. I would prefer that we put the antidote and look... (read more)

banana20

He was fine. I think he spat most of it out. We found out what happened because we saw him trying to get it out of his mouth. The reason I gave the story was that while I would not eat it, the warning that it is poisonous did become relevant to me anyway.

0[anonymous]
Thanks!
banana00

My nephew ate some of the contents of a packet of silica gel in a shoe store while his mother was trying on shoes. He was 3 or 4 at the time. Knowing that silica gel is labled do not eat prompted us to take it seriously and call the poisons board to find out what to do. I took it particularly seriously because I have no idea how it absorbs moisture (eg if it changes volume) and there is usually a lot of moisture in my nephews stomach...

3[anonymous]
And then what happened? Your story ends in a kind of cliffhanger. Did his swallowing the silica gel turn out to need attention or not?
banana00

I agree with Robin Hanson that if two instances of me exist, and one is terminated, I didn’t die, I simply got smaller.

I am not to sure about this idea. To the best of my knowledge I am a biological being existing a universe obeying some sort of physics related to quantum mechanics and general relativity. If there are multiple instances of me then it is probably due to reality being some kind of multiverse. Lets keep things simple and assume that it is a Tegmark Level I Multiverse. This implies that there are an infinite number of copies of me.

Next what... (read more)

banana80

just wants to minimize the probability that she'll be dumped,

I suspect that this is not the real objective function, as it can be trivally minimised by never going out with anyone.

Personally, if I was with someone who would dump me then I would prefer that it happened sooner rather than later to minimise my investement, especially emotional investment, in that relationship. I think the aim of the exercise is to find someone to whom you are compatible. Avoiding being dumped in this viewpoint could be counter productive as it could lead to being "st... (read more)

2Alicorn
Note that she can do the dumping herself if she decides she wants out of a relationship.
banana30

A positive benefit of having guilt (for the person suffering it) that seems to have been overlooked here is that we punish people less when they display signs of guilt. This is so prevalent that we even see it in court rooms. In criminal procedings prosecutors try to talk up any sigh of lack of guilt or repentance to get longer sentences and defendents claim they are alreay suffering a lot of guilt to get sentences lower. This also applies to fake guilt.