All of bbarth's Comments + Replies

Sorry. It didn't seem rude to me. I'm just frustrated with where I see folks spending their time.

My apologies to anyone who was offended.

Yeah, I might, but here I was just surprised by the down-voting for contrary opinion. It seems like the thing we ought to foster not hide.

2TheOtherDave
As I tried to express in the first place, I suspect what elicited the disapproval was not the contrary opinion, but the rudeness.

I'm interested in general purpose optimizers, but I bet that they will be evolved from AIs that were more special purpose to begin with. E.g., IBM Watson moving from Jeopardy!-playing machine to medical diagnostic assistant with a lot of the upfront work being on rapid NLP for the J! "questions".

Also, there's no reason that I've seen here to believe that Newcomb-like problems give insights into how to develop to decision theories that allow us to solve real-world problems. It seems like arguing about corner cases. Can anyone establish a practica... (read more)

0TheOtherDave
That's fair. Again, if you are interested in more discussion about automated optimization on the level of "what should we have for lunch?" I encourage you to post about it; I suspect a lot of other people are interested as well.

Harsh crowd.

It might be nice to be able to see the voting history (not the voters' names, but the number of up and down votes) on a comment. I can't tell if my comments are controversial or just down-voted by two people. Perhaps even just the number of votes would be sufficient (e.g. -2/100 vs. -2/2).

1TheOtherDave
If it helps: it's a fairly common belief in this community that a general-purpose optimization tool is both far superior to, and more interesting to talk about, than a variety of special-purpose tools. Of course, that doesn't mean you have to be interested in general-purpose optimization tools; if you're more interested in decision theory for dinner-menu or economic planners, by all means post about that if you have something to say. But I suspect there are relatively few communities in which "why are you all so interested in such a stupid and uninteresting topic?" will get you much community approval, and this isn't one of them.

Seems unlikely to work out to me. Humans evolved intelligence without Newcomb-like problems. As the only example of intelligence that we know of, it's clearly possible to develop intelligence without Newcomb-like problems. Furthermore, the general theory seems to be that AIs will start dumber than humans and iteratively improve until they're smarter. Given that, why are we so interested in problems like these (which humans don't universally agree about the answers to)?

I'd rather AIs be able to help us with problems like "what should we do about the ec... (read more)

0bbarth
Harsh crowd. It might be nice to be able to see the voting history (not the voters' names, but the number of up and down votes) on a comment. I can't tell if my comments are controversial or just down-voted by two people. Perhaps even just the number of votes would be sufficient (e.g. -2/100 vs. -2/2).

i don't see how your example is apt or salient. My thesis is that Newcomb-like problems are the wrong place to be testing decision theories because they do not represent realistic or relevant problems. We should focus on formalizing and implementing decision theories and throw real-world problems at them rather than testing them on arcane logic puzzles.

4Dolores1984
Well... no, actually. A good decision theory ought to be universal. It ought to be correct, and it ought to work. Newcomb's problem is important, not because it's ever likely to happen, but because it shows a case in which the normal, commonly accepted approach to decision theory (CDT) failed miserably. This 'arcane logic puzzle' is illustrative of a deeper underlying flaw in the model, which needs to be addressed. It's also a flaw that'd be much harder to pick out by throwing 'real world' problems at it over and over again.

Given the week+ delay in this response, it's probably not going to see much traffic, but I'm not convinced "reading" source code is all that helpful. Omega is posited to have nearly god-like abilities in this regard, but since this is a rationalist discussion, we probably have to rule out actual omnipotence.

If Omega intends to simply run the AI on spare hardware it has, then it has to be prepared to validate (in finite time and memory) that the AI hasn't so obfuscated its source as to be unintelligible to rational minds. It's also possible that ... (read more)

3Dolores1984
You should note that every problem you list is a special case. Obviously, there are ways of cheating at Newcomb's problem if you're aware of salient details beforehand. You could simply allow a piece of plutonium to decay, and do whatever the resulting Geiger counter noise tells you to. That does not, however, support your thesis that Newcomb's problem is a totally artificial problem with no logical intrusions into reality. As a real-world example, imagine an off-the-shelf stock market optimizing AI. Not sapient, to make things simpler, but smart. When any given copy begins running, there are already hundreds or thousands of near-identical copies running elsewhere in the market. If it fails to predict their actions from its own, it will do objectively worse than it might otherwise do.

If LW would update the page template to have the script in the html header, I think we'd be set. Isn't there a site admin for this?

I think this is critical, because rationality in the end needs mathematical support, and MathJax is really the de facto way of putting math in web posts at this point.

1Nisan
Someone once requested that Less Wrong implement jsMath, and it seems like it was declined. I just submitted a request for MathJax. I guess we'll see what happens.

Wouldn't the right solution be to use MathJax?

0Nisan
Hm, yes. I don't think I can do that, though, because I can't put javascript into posts.

As one of the folks who made this argument in the other job thread, I'm going to disagree with you. Paying an assistant $36k/yr seems low to me for the Bay Area, but $100k/yr is probably out of line. These all seem like assistanty things that draw more modest salaries. Indeed.com puts the average for administrative assistants in SF at $43k/yr, so given that it's non-profit, it's certainly in range. Do SIAI jobs come with health insurance?

Seriously? This place already has a rep for being a personality cult. Let's not purposefully reinforce it. ;)

Most grad students work half time! We pay ~$45k/yr full time rate (so most students get around $28k/yr) plus insurance and tuition. How much is a cool story worth?

1Desrtopa
Depends how well you leverage it for status and what sources of status you already have.

It's not a question of SIAI not being good enough for Yvain, it's a question of whether they might both do even better if he pursues something else. It clearly sounds like he's pursing a different path than joining SIAI now, so he must have done at least some of the math. He's in med school according to his webpage, so I suspect his prospects for helping the cause might be higher if he does well as a doctor and sends every dime he doesn't need (say his salary as a doctor less $36k/yr) to SIAI. It certainly seems like it might be a waste of his current efforts to drop his medical aspirations and become a curriculum producer at SIAI, but I might be suffering from a form of the Sunk Cost Fallacy here.

Thanks to the magic of guilds, all new trainee doctor jobs in the US start on July 1st*. If I don't get a job by then, I will probably have to wait until next July and find something to occupy me and provide me with money for a year. Hence my comment that I would be interested if my job search fell flat.

Even though it doesn't look like it sometimes, I do give at least five minutes thought to most of my major life decisions.

*which is why some people have very reasonably argued that you should avoid hospitals at that time of year.

There's no indication that this is entry-level. Also, if you look further on that page, you'll see that the median full-time employed person over 25 years of age with a Bachelor's degree in the US makes $56k/yr. My read of the position description leans towards college grads given some of the qualifications that they want. If you look at overall median household incomes in the Bay Area, you'll see that they top $74k/yr depending on the county of choice. Given the way that full-time vs. part-time seems to skew the data, I still say they're undershooting for... (read more)

Here's how typical people read typical job ads (typically), especially ones that are this long: Read the title. Scan for a dollar sign or the words "salary" or "salary range". If both are good enough, scan for the first bulleted list of qualifications. Most ads call these "required qualifications". If the reader meets enough of these, they scan for the second bulleted list of qualifications which is usually called "preferred qualifications". Then, if they meet enough of both of these, they'll go back and start readin... (read more)

Like I said in response to Anna, I'm not offended. I just think you could have done better in setting expectations.

I'm sorry if I came across as overly critical. I had a flashback to the job ad that EY promoted in September of '10 which came off in a similar way to me (though, clearly, this one has much more detail), and that probably drove the tone of my posts. I'm certainly not offended.

Now, that being said, I've noticed that there are a number of young idealists in this community, and I think it would be good if we could help them understand what they're getting into. We have a responsibility to help the up and coming among us to make good decisions. Making it clea... (read more)

Agreed.

We pay grad students ~$45k for 40 hours a week. Most of them only work half time, so they take home a lot less than that. Of course they also get health insurance. Also, this doesn't appear to be seeking a student.

Edited to add: We pay their tuition, too.

It's also possible, for example, that they don't actually want people with work experience doing these things and would settle for folks who are decent at them but have so far only done these activities as a hobby/self-training exercise. If that's the case, then $36k/yr might be OK, and it might be a good opportunity for someone to get these skills on their resume for a later job search in a relevant industry. If that's what they're really looking for, they should state it as such. Otherwise, I remain highly skeptical of the position.

I don't know what others think (besides myself and thomblake, clearly), but I think it's between 3 and 4x under market for a person with those skills in the Bay Area. It's between 2 and 3x under market in a place like Austin, TX, depending on experience.

People with experience doing the things listed above make high 5 and low 6-figure salaries plus benefits (medical, 401k with some matching, etc.) in industry jobs, or they are university or secondary school teachers who have reasonable salaries, health care, and other benefits like tenure not available to industry workers.

[anonymous]100

.

I guess my points were a little too obtuse. People with even a handful of these skills get paid a lot more than you're offering (e.g. school teachers have curriculum design and teaching experience, and generally make much more than $36k/yr). Clearly, stating the salary is "upfront" about the salary, but that wasn't my complaint. My complaint was that it appears that by offering a well below market salary you're looking for a fellow traveler/true believer/movement participant who is so highly dedicated to the cause that they are willing to sacrifi... (read more)

They're offering 150% of the average US income during a recession with 9% unemployment as starting salary for a potentially entry-level position doing satisfying creative work for an organization that could actually improve the world. I like money as much as anyone else, and I would fight for this job if I weren't otherwise engaged. If my hunt for residency positions this summer falls flat, I might still try to fight for it.

Lots of writers and philosophy postgrads get paid less than this. I don't mean to discourage people with fewer qualifications - a PhD is not required - but we posted a Craigslist ad recently for a different potential position, at a similar salary, and got applications from PhDs with 3 years experience. In any case, we shall see what the market thinks of our offer, and I see no reason for you to take offense at it a priori.

The motivation is simply that we need help now, that we do not have budget now, that SingInst's experience suggests that at least some skilled people are willing to work for such money (e.g. me, Carl, Michael Anissimov, Lukeprog), and if rationality org's efforts are successful we will probably have more money for skilled people in the future.

There are several reasons someone might apply, given that. The ones that spring to my mind are:

  1. This sounds like a fun job where they could learn a lot over the next year. (I've learned a huge amount, working here.
... (read more)

The salary for this position seems off by a factor of between 3 and 4 given the sort of background you want. You're asking for someone with professional level design skills coupled to the skills of a university professor or really good high school teacher or video game designer (depending or your perspective). People with these skills get paid a lot more than you're offering. $36k/yr isn't going to get you a bright recent college grad, especially if they have to live in the Bay Area.

It seems to me that you're more interested in hiring folks that are deeply dedicated to the movement so that you can pay them a sub-market salary than hiring the best person you can find. Which is fine, but you should be upfront about it.

8Eliezer Yudkowsky
I guess we have to emphasize "you do not need all of these skills simultaneously" even harder than bolder text. And stating standard salary straight out is upfront.

Agreed. I just sounded like this discussion was trending into hyperbole about the dangers of smoking.

I don't think people become addicted by TRYING a cigarette. It takes several if not dozens or more. The physical dependence is acquired and comes by degrees.

4jtk3
People don't typically get trapped in Scientology by trying it out either. But if you try a cigarette there's some risk you'll want to smoke another and then another. I'm confident smoking is a bigger danger to me than Scientology.

My apologies, Anna, I didn't know that you worked for SIAI until I was browsing the site this morning for a better hint about this job. I didn't realize that you were likely operating on inside information.

That's awfully parochial of you. Also, that puts me firmly in the "this shouldn't have been promoted camp."

If the rationality community is going to grow, it would behoove it to be more open not less. It's a bit surprising that you would advocate for insular and incestuous hiring practices given the hurdles that this community has to overcome if it wants attract more members.

-1Aleksei_Riikonen
This isn't a matter of being non-open (except on the part of the employer, which is their valid choice). It's just a matter of not putting in the effort to make it obvious at the very first glance to newcomers whether the job ad is trustworthy or not. To be honest, I don't consider it a particularly demanding task even for newcomers to determine that they won't exceptionally probably be screwed if they send their info. But if you're worried about it, no-one is stopping you from sending an anonymised application, saying that you'd give your more personal details if the potential employer first communicates more about itself to you.

Also, did a rationalist just ask me to take something on faith? ;)

2Aleksei_Riikonen
No, since I'm not pushing you towards applying. Not applying is a perfectly valid choice, and I too don't mind if only EY's friends end up sending their resumes ;)

Here's the thing: Consider the circumstances of a potential applicant who makes $X and live in Texas. If applying to this job is going to be worth their time, they need to know that it's worth at least f$X where f (greater than unity) is a conversion factor for the cost of living in Texas vs. the Bay Area. If the only job pays, say 0.5 $X or less, then it's probably not even worth the applicant's time to update their resume. Additionally, if the applicant is already employed, then they'd need to have some confidence that the application process would be ha... (read more)

9Aleksei_Riikonen
It's not necessarily in Eliezer's interest to make the job ad as useful to those who don't know him as those who do. If only Eliezer's friends apply, great, that means someone more likely to also be a supporter/funder of SIAI ends up getting this well-paying job. (I for one have never met Eliezer in person, but I've observed him and his associates over the net for about 10 years now, which allows me to read quite a lot between the lines of this job ad.) I'll also explicitly note that I don't consider it to be unfair of EY that only some readers get the full benefit of this job ad. It's a free extra service, throwing this info out here; he's under no obligation to spend more time making the use of this information easier.

And you would guess that why? The post is almost entirely evidence free. If you know something that can shed some light on the situation, please share it! Anything else is rank speculation.

There's no data in this post that makes it clear that it's at all safe to send my resume (with some personal data on it) to what appears to be a throwaway gmail account. Job descriptions usually come with more data. Even if there's a recruiter in the middle, at least the recruiter has you contact them directly. Here, EY is asking us to contact an anonymous email address. This makes it seem really fishy.

2Aleksei_Riikonen
I guess you'd need to trust EY's judgement a bit if you're gonna apply. Don't apply if you think he'd do this with a fishy employer/"employer".

I'm not sure why. It suggests that people out of high school could apply if they have participated in math-Olympiad-type events or are a polymath (which for high school grads might cover some high-end calculus and maybe some number theory or analysis). That being said, the job is looking for an ideas person of some sort, which doesn't scream recent high school grad to me. Thus the question.

Let me rephrase. Does it pay more or less than $100k starting?

0AnnaSalamon
I would guess that, at least for the right person, it pays more.

Can you define "pay[s] well"? I.e. does it pay well for someone straight out of college, or does it pay well for someone with 10 years of research experience?

3AnnaSalamon
I would guess choice B.

Salaried professionals often cannot do an extra hour of work in order to donate the proceeds to charity. My employer basically prohibits me from moonlighting/consulting/etc. Even many hourly employees can't get extra hours at work as that would be higher-rate overtime that their employer is unwilling to pay. Monetary charitable giving takes away from my current bottom line, but charitable working just eats into my leisure hours.

Since I cannot do extra paid work without fear of consequences at my primary job, my non-work time may be practically worthless. ... (read more)

8thomblake
Related to this, people often donate their 'extra' time because taking low wages instead would seem to devalue them - they can imagine they're donating a very high value rather than the $5 the work is worth.

Julian's comment is on point though. I've been involved with any number of charitable organizations where it is expected that people donate significant time for things like bake sales or craft fairs or dinners in order to raise money, where if you took the money raised minus costs divided by the total hours spent, people would have done better taking second jobs at McDonald's and donating the money.

Plus, we're often providing a product which wouldn't sell for that price on the open market, with custom driven largely by people's affinity for the organiza... (read more)