All of Blackened's Comments + Replies

I will throw in several predictions. I myself am not completely confident of some of those.

1. Time-turners, prophecies and similar devices, which predict that something will happen, work by exerting some mind control upon people in the form of unexplicable urges, such as the urge to take the left turn this one time. I'm not sure how far can they go in order to fulfill themselves.

2. The events in the magical world are not just dictated by the already-discovered laws of physics, but also by the laws of fairy tales. Dumbledore is pretty damn rational, at many p

I'm surprised to see everyone overlook the most obvious possibility: Voldemort.

Point one: The earlier prophecy was probably about the same person, and he hadn't arrived yet at the moment. Even if it was about something different. 'he has come' in the last prophecy implies that he had just arrived.

Point two: Voldemort appears to love destruction. I still don't know how someone as intelligent as him hadn't killed everyone in the ways Harry thought of -. Harry's intent to kill, which is presumably very Voldemort-like, is extremely creative and effective even ... (read more)

• If something sounds certainly correct, check it up on Wikipedia anyway - it takes less than a minute. Likewise if it sounds almost certainly wrong.
• If I don't know why exactly someone went to his conclusion, do not assume he thinks it for the wrong reasons.
• If I can predict I will be too busy to go to gym in the next few days, do a 5-minute (1-set) exercise - this is at least 50% of the efficiency of a normal exercise.
• When I feel the drive to argue, do careful judgement on whether it's efficient to do so.
• Never blame people for their biases. If they don'

It doesn't fit my model of human behavior. But that's possibly just me.

I'd imagine that if Snape got really angry, but it's only because Harry offended him without knowing, well, he wouldn't be close to harming him. I guess it would be appropriate to say "you almost died" if it's not true, but then Harry acted as if Snape might reconsider his decision to not kill him, rather than being just apologetic, or something like that. Or maybe he was indeed, and I am likely to be underestimating the strength of the impact that Harry's words had on Snape.

But if others interpreted it like me, then I got it right. Hmm.

There was something that has always been bugging me. It's actually several things I don't understand.

When Snape says "You almost died today, Potter", what does he mean? Maybe it's because I'm not a native speaker, but I can't understand that part. My best guess is that Snape got so upset with what Harry said that he almost killed him in his rage. But that seems very counterintuitive to me.

Second, Snape had possibly changed after his conversation with Harry? Does this mean that Snape took Harry's words and thought that Lily is actually not worth h... (read more)

I'd love to see a list of spoilers about things that were hinted at and reasonably sounding hypotheses, if anyone ever made one. Please do reply to this post with your discoveries and speculations. I'm also going to post mine, once I finish rereading HPMOR.

I did notice the title didn't sound right to me. But I also couldn't find the right words (English isn't my native language). Any suggestions?

It strongly depends on the person, some are faster than others.

JCTI takes at least an hour for nearly all people with high scores. 2-3 hours isn't too much.

CFNSE takes 2 to 5 hours, according to the estimation on the website - it's an accurate estimation IMO. A possible strategy is to do it "quickly" (for 2-5 hours or so) and leave everything you couldn't answer definitely for the last. Then spend 30-60 minutes on each of those. I think this isn't going to artificially inflate your score, and I'm quite certain that someone with 100-110 IQ can't figure out the patterns for any of the hardest questions, even if he spends hours/days on each.

Fortunately, we can still view individual replies.

We can still view the individual responses and ignore this one.

Yes. And I thought I reread the thing xD

Ahh. For some reason, I was convinced that the link worked before I edited my post, during the process of which I didn't touch the link. So I just left it there, out of frustration, it was clickable anyway. Fixed.

Maybe HTML does suggest something about LW's IQ, but it is not really useful, given the current evidence we have so far. The way I interpret it, it says that the average IQ is probably over 110-120 (no upper limit), with a quite weak reliability. Even if we don't take into account that 20-70% of the users know programming (many people don't study computer science, but still use programming).

Yes. Edited.

I couldn't find any relevant discussion on the topic. Can anyone give me a link?

I'm looking for one where people have posted their scores on a reliable IQ test, rather than answering to the question "what is your IQ?".

CFNSE score [pollid:259] Here is the percentile convertor for CFNSE. http://www.etienne.se/cfnse/norm.htm

Note that the best strategy is to look at Adults percentile, even if this is less accurate than the age group. We are looking at the intelligence compared to all humans, not compared to all humans at the same age range.

Thanks.

JCTI score [pollid:257] Please don't use this field for scores from other tests, except for clinical ones - note that there are some that are not free and are still not valid (one costed a few hundred Euros!). You can post scores from other tests if you are really sure they are valid, but don't forget to convert it to SD15. As far as I know, some Mensa admission tests are not accurate.

I really wanted to come, but coursework deadlines are very close, so I had to skip this one. How did it go? How many people came?

Took the survey + all the extra questions. I just noticed this thread today. In my opinion, it is underadvertised.

Concerning the IQ test, I've seen this one before and I know it's not reliable, because it is not based on a statistic and there's no reason to believe it's reliable in the first place. There are only two culture-fair free online IQ tests: JCTI and CFNSE. I am extremely curious to see the average score for LW.

Here's how to make sense out of your IQ score: http://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/iqtable.aspx

How do I improve my persuasion skills?

How do I translate a valid logical argument to a persuasive, intuitive argument that would work for most people? I have read a lot of psychological literature. I have also gotten to the point where I can recognize an intuitive argument that would be persuasive. So, I can recognise my arguments as non-persuasive before I say them and I avoid most debates with people who aren't convinced by scientific evidence and stuff that works for rationalists and is technically a good argument. However, generating a persuasive argument isn't the same as evaluating the persuasiveness of already existing arguments.

Any good, readable, concise literature on this?

Any tips for productivity (links to good articles are highly appreciated)? I was thinking that I knew all the main simple rules, until a few months ago I discovered nootropics.

I have thought about this, to destroy my past erroneous belief that a single vote doesn't make a difference. Imagine that you know a secret that few people know, which tells you that the right candidate to vote is definitely candidate X. All the people who know the secret also might think in the same way as you - that a single vote doesn't matter. But the difference between all of those people voting and no one of them voting is winning the election. So there's the two situations:

1. Nobody votes, you lose the election.
2. Everyone votes, you win the election.

I remember when a few years ago, on the news on TV, there was an article about how 40-70% (forgot the exact number) of the interviewed people said that Beethoven is a dog. I was frustrated at how shocked the other people in the room were.

I'm talking about personal statement. Not sure if this is the same as cover letter, but I do know that they require it. And it appears that mine is going to significantly increase the overall quality of the CV.

Why do you think so? I would personally like more people who are actively talking about their good and bad sides, although I'm not sure if I'd do that in an interview, because it might mean they don't know what appears to be the most effective strategy.

I'm writing my CV now and was wondering whether I should indeed be "as confident as possible" (which basically means, according to some people, that I'm limited to sentences that don't even contain words like "but", "mostly", "although" etc.). Overconfidence is a killer of rationality, and displaying it might signal that you're irrational. I would personally trust much more someone who actively doubts in many things he says, rather than someone who is always confident. However, some people say the opposite.

I was wond... (read more)

That's because I wanted to see what their programmers study and computer science was the closest I found. I assume that their programmers would study that? And that it's better than study software engineering in a significantly worse university?

Any good books on mathematics for software engineers? I've been looking at the best universities in UK, they all have much more mathematics in their degree than what I'm taught.

Also, any good books for probability theory and all the things needed for AI development? I'm doing this course: https://www.edx.org/courses/BerkeleyX/CS188.1x/2012_Fall/about

Edit: These are the programs I've been talking about.

Imperial college: http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/ugprospectus/facultiesanddepartments/computing/computingcourses http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/computing/teaching/u... (read more)

I didn't say that sexuality is entirely shaped by this, only that it's influenced. Say, when I read that hourglass-shaped women bodies are supposed to be attractive, I started noticing that I think I'm attracted to that, although one can argue that I used to be before I read it, so I only started noticing that. However, it worked for me for other things, many of which are not liked by many people.

Sexuality is a strange thing. If you consciously think something is sexy, it then becomes sexy for you. At least that's how it works for me, I'm generalizing from one example here.

That would only makes sense if vitamin D is the only one that has any real significant effects or if the other ones who do, are too included in small dosages (this doesn't seem improbable at all).

I remember seeing studies which doubt that vitamin C would help healing from common cold. No wonder if most other are as insignificant.

Also, just checked some pills of vitamins (for hair, skin and nails) I bought 1-2 years ago. It says "take 3 times a day" and it has 100 IU of vitamin D. It's also apparently 50% of RDA - most other vitamins/minerals in it are up to 200-250%, and my vitamin D pills are 1250% RDA. Mystery solved, I guess.

Well, so it was a good decision to play lottery after all!

(I'm joking)

But anyway, congratulations for the success and thanks for the contributions! I personally am going to donate huge amounts of money on similar causes if I get rich. It seems to be the most rational way (according to my goals) to spend them.

I am very confused right now.

A few years ago, I learned that multivitamins are ineffective, according to research. At that point, I have heard of the benefits of many of them, they were individually praised like some would praise anything that's good enough to take by itself, so I was thinking that multivitamins should be something ultra-effective that only irrational people won't take. When I learned they were ineffective, I hypothesized that vitamins in pills simply don't get processed well.

Recently, I was reading a few articles about Vitamin D - I thoug... (read more)

it says that accupuncture (both "real" and "sham") was seen to be effective in combatting pain

Oh damn I missed that. I got too distracted by the Effectiveness research section. So there you go, I found a reasonable explanation, although I was more looking forward to some sort of fundamental bias that effects everyone, which I must have somehow missed. Would have been a good explanation to some things.

Still, I'm waiting for someone to appear with a very good hypothesis of the cancer case. I'm not saying there has to necessarily be one... (read more)

I need help in explaining this case to myself.

I just talked to someone and she praised her doctor, because she complained from chest (armpit) pain, and the doctor, untraditinally, cured her with accupuncture on the spot. I asked her and she said the pain was going on for a few weeks (and was quite intense), and it disappeared on the next day. Some bias IS expected of her (more so than from the average person).

Maybe it's just random chance plus unconscious exaggeration, but I doubt it could have been so strong. After I started writing this, I looked up on W... (read more)

Ha, I got the idea for nootropics from your dual n-back article in the first place.

I'll certainly try some nicotine gums, but would that be strong? I'd like something strong, like Adderall, but I know that Adderall is illegal without prescription (damn stupid laws), and I will likely never be in the state of having an ADHD diagnosis.

Can anyone recommend me any nootropics for raising concentration (executive functions, working memory) that are effective, legal in the UK, not too expensive, and without too much side effects? My concentration is quite bad, if that's relevant.

In case (b), 1307 is as close to 1337 as are the example numbers 4337, 1037, and 1334 (among others). The found number could be closer to 1337 if it were instead 1347 or 1327 (among others).

This is the case I meant to (at least one that would be very close to what someone would use in real life). The point is to choose your own criteria for the example situation to determine whether that person is a real magician.

This can't be. If nothing else, the one group uses their left hand and the other uses their right. You need an "except" or "o

Why the answer is different: Because 1.C asks what are expectations are, and 1.B asks what the state of the class is

For b) and c), the questions were supposed to be the same - my bad, I have edited it. Please edit your answer accordingly.

Not all of your answers were correct (unsurprisingly, because I find some of the questions extremely hard - even I couldn't answer them at first :D). I'll wait for a few more replies and then I'll post the correct answers plus explanations.

I meant to say, a close match to what the person said. And I'm not entirely confident that 2 makes sense, I'd like to clarify something but that would give out the answer. Please tell me of the other questions you don't understand.

9 months ago, I designed something like a rationality test (as in biological rationality, although parts of it depend on prior knowledge of concepts like expected value). I'll copy it here, I'm curious whether all my questions will get answered correctly. Some of the questions might be logically invalid, please tell me if they are and explain your arguments (I didn't intend any question to be logically invalid). Also, certain bits might be vague - if you don't understand it, it's likely that it's my fault. Feel free to skip any amount of questions and sele... (read more)

I've heard that it's often a fraud and that it usually comes at the cost of reduced reading comprehension. But I have no actual experience with it.

Don't sweat about karma, it's there mostly for feedback and filtering, not as a judgment tool.

I didn't get this. Isn't it that people should vote down everything they disagree with?

If you define "rational" as "those who understand what I mean, rather than what I say, and agree with me", then no, you have not.

Maybe you're right, I can't possibly judge how did it look like when read from a different person. Mental contamination.

Famous last words...

Would you still say that if I said "it's 15:00 here, therefore it's not nigh... (read more)

Unfortunately, it's not as simple as that. My sister (yes, I was talking about her all this time) is so prejudiced against me, she even thinks I'm physically weak (despite that I'm not just average, I'm well above the average and I even receive compliments for that; also, my lifts are significantly above the average, according to some papers I saw).

I've contradicted her so many times, she didn't bother to change her opinion. Not only that, but I've met a few of her friends who reacted like "wow, you're either an entirely different person, or your sister outright lied me about you", but I haven't done it recently and they might have not expressed this opinion loud enough.

I can't understand how this is a popular post, giving the number of assumptions you made.

First, I don't have a brother. In my analogue of the situation, I'm kind to that person and he isn't kind to me. I never did anything bad to him (and I don't do bad things to people, by the way). But this is irrelevant, because the point here is to change the mind of someone you know who didn't change his opinion when the subject of that opinion has changed a lot.

Re your friend: "Change him to be like you" seems like a bad idea in general

By "like you... (read more)

However, we assume that the social interaction itself isn't enough to justify my ticket. Let's say it's just a warm greeting and a short small talk with someone I find sympathetic, but probably won't play a decisive role in my future. And I'm buying the ticket, because I rationally know that I might win the lottery (despite that I find it so unlikely that I don't actually expect it). I have only included the social interaction to offset the wasted time.

I'm still not convinced that I shouldn't buy lottery tickets.

Assume a hypothetical situation. There's a lottery right next to where I study/work. Also, I realize how silly it is to actually expect to win the lottery after buying a lottery ticket, so I can't use this as a source of positive emotions, even if I want to. However, buying lottery tickets let me engage in certain social situations, which just barely outweigh the time wasted for them (but not the money) - alternatively, you can instead assume that it takes me 0 seconds to buy a ticket and later t... (read more)

Registered a few days ago, now trying to run the course, but for some reason it's not working.

Edit: working now.