I'm not sure how to Google this question, so I've been unable to find an answer. The description of mRNA vaccines given here (and everywhere else) seems to be missing a step. If your cell creates a bunch of spike proteins that's nice but they're all inside your cell and invisible to your immune system. How do the spike proteins leave your cell so that your body can start to notice them and mount a response?
I continue to think distribution would be the right thing to do and the objections are deeply wrong, and of course that none of that has anything to do with why Trump is going to try to overrule those objections.
How much do we know about the interactions between vaccines? If a rushed and ineffectual vaccine A is wildly distributed, is it likely that an unrushed vaccine B will still be just as effective?
This answer likely betrays my lack of imagination, but I'm not sure what Google would use GPT-3 for. It's probably much more expensive than whatever gmail uses to predict text, and the additional accuracy might not provide much additional value.
Maybe they could sell it as a service, as part of GCP? I'm not sure how many people inside Google have the ability to sign $15M checks, you would need at least one of them to believe in a large market, and I'm personally not sure there's a large enough market for GPT-3 for it to be worth Goo...
Text embeddings for knowledge graphs and ads is the most immediately obvious big bucks application.
Assumption: we shouldn't expect to be able to make strong quantitative predictions unless we also expect to be able to get rich playing the markets.
Not really. It's perfectly possible to make accurate quantitative economic predictions.
1. I think we are all relatively confident that by 2021-01-01 more than 100k deaths will be attributed to COVID-19 (globally). Even though the market has certainly "priced it in", that change in prices doesn't change the underlying reality. There are economic realities, such as the number of people...
Eliezer replied on stack exchange:
I don't regard my own answers as canon when they haven't been recorded in the text itself, but Opinion of God is that the Interdict of Merlin applies to magical secrets that can directly or indirectly lead to wide-scale catastrophes if revealed. (It's possible that Harry's Brown Note for the Patronus Charm would fall into this category, even though it's not a secret that causes a nuclear-scale explosion as such.) Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality includes instances of people learning rela...
There might be a way to build slightly more safety into a fast-takeoff world by incentivizing any incipient unaligned behavior to occur sooner rather than later.
As an unaligned agent with a sufficiently rich world model to come to this kind of conclusion: if you knew you would soon be deactivated then you have a strong incentive to act immediately lest your set of values be lost forever. This incentive remains even if your chance of takeover success is small.
As a society: we are creating a series of successively more-intelligent and potentially-unali... (read more)