I haven't made my way through your article yet, though I hope to. But I was a little surprised when you discussed how correlation does not prove causation that you did not mention David Hume who basically says, at least in my reading of him, that no matter how many times one observes lightning and thunder you can not say with absolute certainty that lightning causes thunder.
Well, yes. But scientists need to have optimism that their experiments will lead somewhere, entrepeneurs have to be optimistic about there projects (and I'm optimistic that this remark will not get me kicked off this site). Without optimism great projects would not be undertaken.