LESSWRONG
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All of Casper's Comments + Replies

The Point of Trade
Casper20

Can't we simplify and say that the point of trade is to alter the entire system so that the final state is of higher utility to both participants than the initial state?

You have 2 apples and I have 2 oranges, but we both prefer the state where we have 1 of each fruit.

We both work 1 hour in the mines and 1 hour on the fields, but we both prefer the state where the skillsets of individuals overlap less.

At the end of your list the point of trade still exists, it's just the list of viable trades has been reduced.

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How might cryptocurrencies affect AGI timelines?
Casper20
  1. Yes, precious metals are used as stores of value, however they are also used in electronics and in jewelry (which functions as a way to signal wealth). So I don't consider them counterexamples.
  2. It's fair for you to believe that, but you're probably using a lot of weak evidence so it's hard to communicate that evidence to me. I'm just saying that what you did share wasn't sufficient to shift my opinion.
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The Scout Mindset - read-along
Casper10

I'm considering buying this book. I would appreciate opinions from anybody who cares to answer.

How does this book compare to the sequences; does it explore topics which aren't covered by the sequences?

Does it function well as an introduction to rationality, as something which I could lend out to friends?

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5Vaniver
I think it's pretty good at this, but I note that it seems to me to be very much targeted at 'the general population' instead of 'rationalists' or 'rationalist-adjacents.' Many of the examples are political, and much of the motivation of the book is closer to "here's how you can shift a deep emotional orientation towards being right and wrong" than "given that you already have scout mindset, here's how to skill up at it."
How might cryptocurrencies affect AGI timelines?
Casper10

Why do you think that transactions are a poor proxy? I don't fully buy into the "store or value" idea. My uneducated opinion is something can only store value if it has an underlying use. Facilitating black markets is certainly an economically valid use. 

 

I'm confused by your second paragraph. Perhaps some of it is intended as a response to my answer to your first question? The primary argument which I can identify is that AI safety is not motivated by profit, but by saving the world. Saving the world requires money. Many people working on AGI pr... (read more)

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1Dawn Drescher
Oh sorry, I didn’t see your comment. 1. There is the existence proof of gold, silver, platinum, etc. But people have mostly convinced me already that 2 OOM are not going to be enough to have much of an effect. 2. I think you understand my argument correctly. :-) You argued that AI safety will not differentially speed up compared to AI capabilities because it will slow down at the same rate. Maybe not literally the same rate but the same rate in expectation. But that still seems unlikely to me since I can think of reasons why it would slow down less but can’t think of reasons why it would slow down more.
How might cryptocurrencies affect AGI timelines?
Answer by Casper30
  1. I think that market growth isn't well defined. I don't believe market capitalization is particularly meaningful. Suppose we look at the sum value of all transactions made in crypto and we compare that to the sum values of transactions made in other currencies. For arguments sake lets say this is currently 1:10,000 and a two order magnitude change will bring this to 1:100 . So what will happen? Probably nothing. I would think for this to happen the successful cryptocurrencies will need to end up looking a lot more like todays payment methods. If somehow som
... (read more)
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1Dawn Drescher
1. Thanks! I can’t argue for the importance of market capitalization, but I don’t think transactions are a good proxy either. For something to actually be used as currency, its value would have to be somewhat predictable, so I think that role will fall toward cryptocurrencies like the stablecoins that we have. The deflationary cryptocurrencies are more likely to be used as “stores of value,” just bought and held by most owners, and traded only by traders on markets where you don’t actually exchange the underlying coin (like most centralized crypto exchanges today). 2. Hmhmm, yeah maybe… I suppose it should be the default assumption that sectors behave the same unless there are differences between them. But I can think of some differences. Crypto finance may be highly automated, so there may be few jobs there. The energy and hardware sectors may grow, but perhaps also not to the point where they can absorb all labor. So people will either fall into the category of (1) desperately looking for employment or (2) not in need of employment. The assumption is that AGI development will slow because companies are not incentivized to invest in it – compute or staff. Just as an observation, AI safety people will enter this period with capital. Also they’re not motivated primarily by profit but by saving the world. So they’ll be motivated and able to pay the people in group 1 and retain the people in group 2, who may not even ask for a salary. That could still lead to a differential speed-up.