Maybe "sidestep the data leakage issue" then. The series was designed with these issues in mind. (I work at Metaculus.)
Hi @Odd anon, thanks for the feedback and questions.
1. To your point about copying the Community Prediction: It's true that if you copy the CP at all times you would indeed receive a high Baseline Accuracy score. The CP is generally a great forecast! Now, CP hidden periods do mitigate this issue somewhat. We are monitoring user behavior on this front, and will address it if it becomes an issue. We do have some ideas in our scoring trade-offs doc for further ways to address CP copying, e.g.:
...We could have a leaderboard that only considers the las
Interesting read, thanks for writing it up. FYI the link "The report on the 2022 results is now available" leads to a private Google Drive file.
Fair point. Noted for future event posts.
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Prediction market Metaculus launches a “Forecasting Our World In Data” tournament (via @metaculus)
Hi, this link should be https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/forecasting-Our-World-in-Data/ instead, it's missing the www
Hi @gwern, we are currently in the process of combing through winners' documentation of their bots and which models they used. We haven't yet encountered anyone who claims to have used one of the base models.
We will share here if we learn a participant did indeed use one.